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Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:I'm assuming the league winner will be between 20-22 games. Yes, I believe the birds can win 20 games. Will mo st win more? Possible. Don't know. I think isur will be in the hunt.

If the league winner is only around 22 games, this league will be a one bid league again.

shocktheheart wrote:

Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:I'm assuming the league winner will be between 20-22 games. Yes, I believe the birds can win 20 games. Will mo st win more? Possible. Don't know. I think isur will be in the hunt.

If the league winner is only around 22 games, this league will be a one bid league again.

That's pretty obvious. It could be a 27 win team and is probably still a 1 bid league

shocktheheart wrote:

Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:I'm assuming the league winner will be between 20-22 games. Yes, I believe the birds can win 20 games. Will mo st win more? Possible. Don't know. I think isur will be in the hunt.

If the league winner is only around 22 games, this league will be a one bid league again.

I don't think there is any doubt about that for the foreseeable future

Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:

shocktheheart wrote:

Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:I'm assuming the league winner will be between 20-22 games. Yes, I believe the birds can win 20 games. Will mo st win more? Possible. Don't know. I think isur will be in the hunt.

If the league winner is only around 22 games, this league will be a one bid league again.

I don't think there is any doubt about that for the foreseeable future

I hope not, love seeing Bradley, UNI, and SIU pulling the upsets over the last 20 years or so.

Again, there's nothing about the league that will determine whether we get 1 or 2 bids; either as an individual team you have scheduled 4-5 opportunities for top 100 wins in the non-con and then are able to do so, or you aren't going to be in the hunt regardless of how you do in the league or how good the league is overall.

The powers that be have found the magic formula they wanted to maximize power conferences pretty much getting all the at -large bids except in rare circumstances. They thought they had it with the RPI but then mid level conferences[ the Valley especially] found out how to schedule to maximize their scores and the powers had a dilemma. But as we've seen recently, the RPI is only a measure to rank teams to be able to determine their worth in a schedule, not a determinant of who gets a bid. Top 50 and top 100 wins are the collateral for negotiating and even if your RPI is 10-15 points lower than someone else, if you have a number of those negotiating chips and they don't, you're sitting better than them. Of course the reality is, there just aren't many of those chips available to mid major conferences except in tourneys and a game or two in conference sometimes. That's why I absolutely hate conference tourneys at the end of the year, because we [ mid majors] go into them with usually only one chance to help yourself [ win it] and a couple opportunities to hurt yourself, while majors can get 1-2 wins [ chips] still lose the tourney, but all of a sudden be off the bubble and dancing because they got another couple top 50-100 wins .

That's why I think in the years to come, getting 2-4 teams into the NCAA/NIT combo will become much more the attainable marker for mids than expecting 2-3 NCAA bids. It's doable[ 2-3 NCAA bids] but so many things have to break perfect to do it, while a power level conference team can go 18-14 /finish 7th -10th in their conference but have gotten 2-3 home wins in conference season against quality teams, now get 1-2 more in the conference tourney and they're gonna get the bid before a team that is 26-6 but lost their conference tourney and only has 1-2 top 50-100 wins. Just the way it is.

Seems like a consensus from a few CBB Bloggers I've seen that Missouri State and Loyola will be preseason 1 or 2 next season. I've also seen IL St as high as #3 in a projection, I know they've have some graduations and transfers, but consensus is they'll still be a strong team. I've also seen people say they expect growth from Bradley's young team. UNI had a down year last year but they're a strong Program with a good coach.

Here are a few projections I've see on twitter:

https://twitter.com/Catch_N_Shoot/statu ... 8202219520

) Missouri State
2) Loyola
3) Illinois State
4)Valpo
5) Bradley
6) Northern Iowa.

https://twitter.com/d2mart/status/862506833071796224

1. Loyola Chicago 22.4 (14)
2. Missouri State 18.9 (12)
3. Bradley 13.0 (13)
4. Illinois State 12.1 (12)
5. Valparaiso 11.9 (14)
6. Southern Illinois 11.2 (11)
7. Evansville 11.1 (11)
8. Northern Iowa 10.4 (13)
9. Drake 9.2 (12)
10. Indiana State 8.9 (12)

https://twitter.com/CBB_Central/status/ ... 6147871746

1. MO St
2. Loyola
3. IL St
4. Bradley
5. Valpo
6. UNI
7. Murray
8. SIU
9. IND St
10. Drake
11. EVAN
12. UWM

Didn't Wichita get a 1-seed not too long ago out of the Valley? And now people are saying it's impossible to get an at large bid as a 12 seed out of the Valley? GTFO. Teams get bids, not conferences. It helps if the conference is doing well but even if it isn't you can position yourself in the noncon.

Yes, they got a top seed at 33-0. And, a 10 seed at 30-4. That's a 2.5 seed drop for every loss. That's ridiculous. 5 losses puts you at 12.5 and too far out since 12 is the lowest the MVC can go due to 13-16 being low-majors. ISUr had 6 losses and was the 71st ranked team, third team out. If Wichita state lost to ISUr in St. Louis they probably would have got in on name alone but they would have been in the 12 seed play in game. Top 25, 29-5, and in the play-in games. Something is wrong with that.

Mikovio wrote:Didn't Wichita get a 1-seed not too long ago out of the Valley? And now people are saying it's impossible to get an at large bid as a 12 seed out of the Valley? GTFO. Teams get bids, not conferences. It helps if the conference is doing well but even if it isn't you can position yourself in the noncon.

Exactly what I've been saying, but getting enough games against top 50 -100 teams is always a crap shoot. RPI is meaningless unless they want to use it to keep you out; it comes down to how many games you won against that top 50/ and to some extent top 100. That's pretty clear when you look at the last couple years and see marginal teams that made it and quality teams that didn't.

Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:Yes, they got a top seed at 33-0. And, a 10 seed at 30-4. That's a 2.5 seed drop for every loss. That's ridiculous. 5 losses puts you at 12.5 and too far out since 12 is the lowest the MVC can go due to 13-16 being low-majors. ISUr had 6 losses and was the 71st ranked team, third team out. If Wichita state lost to ISUr in St. Louis they probably would have got in on name alone but they would have been in the 12 seed play in game. Top 25, 29-5, and in the play-in games. Something is wrong with that.

Apples and oranges. The WSU team that went 33-0 had 5 top 100 noncon wins. Plus there were 2 other MVC teams in the top 100 as opposed to 1 this year. This year's WSU team only had 1 noncon win against the top 100 (Colorado State, RPI 66) and 3 altogether including wins vs ISU Red. Yes scheduling is somewhat of a crapshoot but they had their chances against Michigan State, Louisville and OK State and came up short each time. That's why this year's WSU was disrespected compared to that one.