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valleychamp wrote:I will also add that re: UNI's resume, Iowa and ISU are a combined 3-0 in the B10 and B12 with wins over Wisc, Minn, and Texas. If they can continue to pick up some good wins like that throughout the year, those two wins for UNI are looking a bit better.

I'll add that Iowa and Iowa State doing well is great for the valley as we have played them 5 times combined. Iowa winning is why I think the Valley jumped to 7th in rpi over the A10 (combined with Xavier's recent woes).

Maybe I'm discounting Indiana State's chances based on what I saw and how they handle a less than 100% Odum. If he misses time, they are a play in team.

omahaben wrote:Lunardi had MSU in as the auto-bid since they were in first.

I completely missed that; that makes a lot more sense.

Sorry folks, but top-50 wins by MVC teams over MVC teams will not be looked on by the committee in the same way as top-50 wins by ACC teams over ACC teams or Big East over Big East, etc. Just not going to happen.

That said, there just aren't that many top-50 wins from the non-con that look solid enough to hold up. WSU over UNLV is the only one that looks like it can withstand a slip or two from UNLV in their conference. Colorado State (UNI), Vanderbilt (InSU), San Diego State and Northwestern (CU) all are hovering near enough 50 that a slip to the wrong team in conference will do more damage than a few good wins in their conferences. And I don't see Colorado State or Northwestern challenging for the tops of their conferences, which means they will be in similar positions as the Valley schools-hoping for enough blush to cover the blemishes in 'okay' resumes.

I still think the Valley has a good chance at two bids with an outside shot at a third. I think there needs to be some separation in the top 2-4, can be some bunching in the .500 range for teams 5-7/8 and then 9 and 10 have to be buried by everyone else. SIU with two wins right now looks like they may not be as easily buried, sorry Bradley, but the rest of the conference has to start piling on the dirt to build some gaps.

ISUb has the marquee non-conference win to help them. If they finish top 3 with 13+ wins and win some in STL and the BB they will put themselves in position for an at-large

MSUDuo wrote:ISUb has the marquee non-conference win to help them. If they finish top 3 with 13+ wins and win some in STL and the BB they will put themselves in position for an at-large

ISUB at-large chances are almost gone. For them to finish with with RPI less than 45 they have to go 12-3 in their remaining games (and then win BB).

valleychamp wrote:There are still 4 teams with at-large chances. CU, WSU, UNI, and IN St. MSU has no chance, IMO, with what they did in the OOC. The MVC is still in very good shape.

Some of you overreact way too much to a few losses. The season is very long, and there are a ton of games left. The conference did very well OOC this year, and we have some national respect. In '06 when we got 4 teams in, we got teams in that had double digit losses. Its way to early to write teams off now. We probably aren't quite as good as we were 6 years ago, but we are good enough that a few losses will not kill you.

Sorry, I don't buy UNI's at-large chances at the moment. Where were you at a couple days ago with this talk?

For as much as the committee looks at good wins, which unfortunately UNI doesn't have many of, they also look at bad losses too. People were ready to slice WSU off the at-large train with a road loss at Evansville. You guys got double-digited at home by them and have a loss to Illinois State. Those losses won't look good come March. UNI is definitely out, not withstanding a 2008-09 type run; Indiana State is in virtually the same position, with maybe a ladder leg up with the road Vanderbilt win. MSU is St. Louis or bust material. That leaves the Valley at 2 bids right now with a very outside chance of 3 if somebody surprises in St. Louis.

I agree that 2 bids is the most likely scenario. And I think if WSU and Creighton have very many conference losses it might end up being just one bid (again). It's the price we pay for the Valley being so competitive this year.

Not complaining though. It should make the conference season and tourney a lot of fun. I think that currently up to 5 teams have a shot at the conference season title or the tournament. CU and WSU are still the frontrunners but far from unbeatable.

glm38 wrote:I agree that 2 bids is the most likely scenario. And I think if WSU and Creighton have very many conference losses it might end up being just one bid (again). It's the price we pay for the Valley being so competitive this year.

Not complaining though. It should make the conference season and tourney a lot of fun. I think that currently up to 5 teams have a shot at the conference season title or the tournament. CU and WSU are still the frontrunners but far from unbeatable.

good post

its a very exciting valley conference season! my current guess is 13-5 wins the conference. will need some luck to get multiple bids in this scenario

WSUbballer wrote:

valleychamp wrote:There are still 4 teams with at-large chances. CU, WSU, UNI, and IN St. MSU has no chance, IMO, with what they did in the OOC. The MVC is still in very good shape.

Some of you overreact way too much to a few losses. The season is very long, and there are a ton of games left. The conference did very well OOC this year, and we have some national respect. In '06 when we got 4 teams in, we got teams in that had double digit losses. Its way to early to write teams off now. We probably aren't quite as good as we were 6 years ago, but we are good enough that a few losses will not kill you.

Sorry, I don't buy UNI's at-large chances at the moment. Where were you at a couple days ago with this talk?

For as much as the committee looks at good wins, which unfortunately UNI doesn't have many of, they also look at bad losses too. People were ready to slice WSU off the at-large train with a road loss at Evansville. You guys got double-digited at home by them and have a loss to Illinois State. Those losses won't look good come March. UNI is definitely out, not withstanding a 2008-09 type run; Indiana State is in virtually the same position, with maybe a ladder leg up with the road Vanderbilt win. MSU is St. Louis or bust material. That leaves the Valley at 2 bids right now with a very outside chance of 3 if somebody surprises in St. Louis.

Where was I a couple days ago? What does that even mean? I am posting in the thread that was put up today about at-large bids.

This is about "at-large chances". There are 4 teams with "at-large chances" as it currently stands. The numbers, and the national pundits back it up.