Bracketwatch 2011-2012

by **Hail Our Panthers** » December 15th, 2011, 12:10 pm

Joe Leonardi's latest is up

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

CU is an 8
UNI an 8
Wichita a 6

He is going to be doing a chat on ESPN.com at 1 CT if anyone is interested. I usually just read them when they're done. Could be a great year for the league if this continues

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by **unipanther99** » December 15th, 2011, 12:25 pm

Looks like WSU is an 11, not a 6. UNI with the default autobid (probably based on RPI at this point with no conference games played).

by **valleychamp** » December 15th, 2011, 2:42 pm

Wow, that would be amazing. 3 teams in, and our worst seed is an 11? :Cheers:

by **2livewu** » December 15th, 2011, 4:40 pm

What do people think is their team's "magic number" for losses to still get in as an at large?

For instance, I think it's 6 for WSU. 7 is playing with fire. Anything less than 14-4 and a BB win and they'll be on the outside looking in I think.

For the record, I don't think they will be better than 13-5 in conference, but I have thought since day 1 that WSU's NCAA chances hinged on St. Louis.

Other thoughts?

by **Jet915** » December 15th, 2011, 5:21 pm

2livewu wrote:What do people think is their team's "magic number" for losses to still get in as an at large?

For instance, I think it's 6 for WSU. 7 is playing with fire. Anything less than 14-4 and a BB win and they'll be on the outside looking in I think.

For the record, I don't think they will be better than 13-5 in conference, but I have thought since day 1 that WSU's NCAA chances hinged on St. Louis.

Other thoughts?

I think UNI, CU and WSU can get away w/7 losses but it depends on who they lose to. Losses to SIU, Bradley or Evansville will torpedo your RPI. I'm hoping Creighton can go 10-1 nonconference, win bracketbuster and go 13-5 in conference = 24-6.

by **2livewu** » December 15th, 2011, 5:27 pm

Thanks. I would be stunned if WSU gets an at large with 7 losses, but I suppose there is hope if there aren't any bad losses.

I'll be curious to see if UNI fans think 12-6 in the Valley will be good enough for an at large birth.

by **valleychamp** » December 15th, 2011, 5:36 pm

I don't think that there is any way that you can predict such things. Its all dependent on a) who your losses are to, and b) how that stacks up against the rest of the at-large field in the country.

by **Hail Our Panthers** » December 15th, 2011, 5:43 pm

Hard to say at this point. I think if UNI gets out of MVC play with a 12-6 record, I would feel confident at this point. Their strength of schedule has been ranked in the top twenty, granted, that will go down significantly when Valley play starts. Look at the loss totals in 06 when the league got 4 bids. UNI 10 SIU 10, BU 10, WSU 8. If we are a 3 bid league like a lot of people seem to believe, you would thing 7 or 8 losses would be OK for UNI/CU/WSU.

by **achrist70** » December 15th, 2011, 10:29 pm

If UNI could go 12-6 in conference although I like 13-5 or 14-4 better, with an out of conference record of 11-1 (12-1 but Loras doesn't count) that would be 23-7 win on Friday to go to 24 wins I think we are in. I really think that the Valley has an outside shot of 4 teams. I still think ISU blue is more than capable of making it again. Although it will take 4 teams with very few loses to the other 6.

by **AndShock** » December 15th, 2011, 10:43 pm

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

Record RPI Probability

Wichita State
23-5 20.9 22.68%
22-6 28.4 23.89%
21-7 37.4 19.22%

UNI
23-6 20.1 21.57%
22-7 27.6 21.32%
21-8 36.4 14.51%

Creighton
24-5 27.2 13.49%
23-6 35.5 19.37%
22-7 45.4 21.30%

Indiana State
22-6 28.6 0.19%
21-7 37.5 1.23%

UNI is definitely in the best position. Max losses for anyone looks like it's going to be 7, otherwise you will be squarely on the bubble.