Who has legitimate at large chances?

by **Ali** » January 5th, 2012, 8:27 am

I no longer think UNI has a chance unless we go like 15-3 in the Valley which ain't gonna happen. I think the MVC gets two - Creighton and probably Wichita. No one else has the resume and with the grinder that the conference season looks like it is going to be, there are going to be a lot of losses for UNI, MSU, and Indiana State before it's done.

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by **Wufan** » January 5th, 2012, 8:32 am

The Shockers have the horses to make it happen, but I don't think we are very high in the Valley rankings for basketball IQ.

by **shocktheheart** » January 5th, 2012, 8:55 am

WSU and Creighton need to seperate themselves to feel safe for an at large bid. The way the Valley season is starting out, I don't know if WSU or even Creighton can do that.

by **2livewu** » January 5th, 2012, 9:36 am

There are only 2 teams with viable chances for at large bids, and that's Creighton (near mortal lock) and WSU (possible but not better than 50/50).

Even at 15-3 MSU isn't getting in, for no other reason than there are going to be too many other non-power 6 at large teams.

by **DoubleJayAlum** » January 5th, 2012, 9:48 am

I think it is too early to write off UNi or even MSU. Lunardi had MSU in and UNi one of the first teams out. Even InSU could go on a roll and snag a spot. Long season left...

UNI's RPI should be good enough to get them a very solid bracketbusters opponent as well, so they will have another chance for a resume building win outside of the conference.

by **BirdmanBB** » January 5th, 2012, 9:53 am

I was going to mention. The one thing that really held us back last year were losses in the bracketbusters. The conference as a whole has had a much better non-con at this point, but those games are still out there to help the valley's case for 2-3 teams.

Lunardi has 3 from the valley and to be honest, some of the non-con wins could still make our teams look a lot better yet.

by **Ace Dad** » January 5th, 2012, 9:57 am

If we do not have two teams separate themselves from the other 3-4 better teams, we may get the Tournament winner in and have a bubble team looking in. Creighton University and Wichita State have to beat the MVC celler dwellers (the next 2-3 games will tell) at home and on the road. Both teams need to win their fair share of road games. Wichita State's performance on the road at Evansville is not convincing enough for Valley play. The BCS boys will get a mid packer in before the Valley.

by **TylerDurden** » January 5th, 2012, 9:59 am

According to RealtimeRPI, UNI has the No. 11 SOS in the country at this point. I wouldn't discount their at-large potential just yet. The win over ISUblue is a good sign for them after a rough MVC start.

Creighton and Wichita State are obviously in the discussion for at-large bids.

Also note that this year, much like 2006 and 2007, there are opportunities for top 50 wins during league play. That could push a team like ISUblue into the at-large discussion as well.

There are six schools with top 71 SOS at this point. Those SOS won't be hurt much by conference play.

We need to see separation by the top teams for at-large possibilities to really take hold. I'm not sure that will happen, because I think there are eight teams capable of winning on any given night and the other two have enough players to win a couple that we don't expect.

I'd guess four bids is a perfect storm, three is most things going well and two is the low end.

by **shocktheheart** » January 5th, 2012, 10:42 am

Real Time RPI has the following in the Top 100
19. Creighton
30. UNI
31. WSU
60. MSU
65. Indiana St
90. Drake

Creighton, if it doesn't have any bad losses against the lower half in the Valley will get in. UNI's RPI is good, but I don't see that marquee win as of now that will get the committees attention. Maybe Iowa St. if they can have a good conference season. Where UNI sets right now reminds me of MSU in 06 when they were left out with a RPI in the 20's. WSU's resume is good and right now I think they are in. They need to avoid a bad loss that they seem to have every year. MSU, Indiana St, and Drake are out right now and they will need to beat Creighton and WSU to get on the other side of the bubble or of course win in St. Lou

by **DoubleJayAlum** » January 5th, 2012, 10:51 am

shocktheheart wrote:Real Time RPI has the following in the Top 100
19. Creighton
30. UNI
31. WSU
60. MSU
65. Indiana St
90. Drake

Creighton, if it doesn't have any bad losses against the lower half in the Valley will get in. UNI's RPI is good, but I don't see that marquee win as of now that will get the committees attention. Maybe Iowa St. if they can have a good conference season. Where UNI sets right now reminds me of MSU in 06 when they were left out with a RPI in the 20's. WSU's resume is good and right now I think they are in. They need to avoid a bad loss that they seem to have every year. MSU, Indiana St, and Drake are out right now and they will need to beat Creighton and WSU to get on the other side of the bubble or of course win in St. Lou

UNI could get that marquee win via bracketbusters.