Who has legitimate at large chances?

[Snaggletooth]

Two bids at most. And, Creighton and WSU better beat the Weaker Sisters in the Valley. WSU barely escaped at Evansville. The Committee will not understand and care if our top two teams cannot beat our so called weaker teams.

Fortunately for the valley wsu did find away to hang on.

But you do highlight one of the problems with the mvc - certain teams pretty much just sucked in non-conference play but as soon as conference play seem to get motivated. That is the difference between this year and 2006 - then almost every team in the mvc had a good non-conf and no loss was looked down on.

Maybe Elgin needs to send a memo out - "if u are going to suck during non-conference play, please continue to suck the reset of the way".

There is another perspective:

Some teams take longer to "jell" and the nonconference period allows them to transition from ragged play to competitive play. Sometimes a weaker team grows more than a stronger team during OOC play and when conference games start, the weaker team can knock off the stronger team, if the stronger team does not play to their capability. Evansville's record is deceiving based on the number of close losses we have had.

or they learn they just need to be more physical to make up for the limitations

[WSUbballer]

That's just his latest schtick champ. If a poster from an opposing fan base doesn't post for a few days then he calls them out for being more or less "fair weather" fans. The thing is it's only human nature for fans to come on here and talk about their team after a big win. After a big loss there really isn't as much to say.

I'm glad you're following your own advice of ignoring me. If I wasn't here, your post count would be way down.

I'm only stating facts. I really can't stand bandwagon fans. I'm here after losses and so is the majority of this board. I guess I just find the whole process humorous. So flappy after a home win to Indiana State. So quiet after a home loss to Evansville. It's just amazing how quick of a 180 can happen to certain posters.

But anyways, thank you for your concern once again.

[WSUbballer]

Where was I a couple days ago? What does that even mean? I am posting in the thread that was put up today about at-large bids.

This is about "at-large chances". There are 4 teams with "at-large chances" as it currently stands. The numbers, and the national pundits back it up.

Oh you know what it means..

The numbers are inflated in your direction. You are setting yourself up for a MSU-type situation in 2006. Gaudy numbers, but nothing flashy to back them up, and now 2 really bad losses. I'm sorry, but if any other team was in UNI's shoes we know what you'd be saying about them right now.

Again, unless UNI pulls off a 2008-09 miracle run, then yes, technically your at-large chances are alive. But I wouldn't be hanging my hat on that one.

[WSUbballer]

Two bids at most. And, Creighton and WSU better beat the Weaker Sisters in the Valley. WSU barely escaped at Evansville. The Committee will not understand and care if our top two teams cannot beat our so called weaker teams.

Fortunately for the valley wsu did find away to hang on.

But you do highlight one of the problems with the mvc - certain teams pretty much just sucked in non-conference play but as soon as conference play seem to get motivated. That is the difference between this year and 2006 - then almost every team in the mvc had a good non-conf and no loss was looked down on.

Maybe Elgin needs to send a memo out - "if u are going to suck during non-conference play, please continue to suck the reset of the way".

Bingo. It just absolutely kills any credit this conference tried to accomplish in December.

[Aargh]

The problem with getting quality wins in conference play is that teams have to cannibalize each other to get those wins. Getting quality wins in league play probably doesn't increase the number of bids the Valley gets. It would only change who the bids go to.

[RoyalShock]

Sorry folks, but top-50 wins by MVC teams over MVC teams will not be looked on by the committee in the same way as top-50 wins by ACC teams over ACC teams or Big East over Big East, etc. Just not going to happen.

That said, there just aren't that many top-50 wins from the non-con that look solid enough to hold up. WSU over UNLV is the only one that looks like it can withstand a slip or two from UNLV in their conference. Colorado State (UNI), Vanderbilt (InSU), San Diego State and Northwestern (CU) all are hovering near enough 50 that a slip to the wrong team in conference will do more damage than a few good wins in their conferences. And I don't see Colorado State or Northwestern challenging for the tops of their conferences, which means they will be in similar positions as the Valley schools-hoping for enough blush to cover the blemishes in 'okay' resumes.

I still think the Valley has a good chance at two bids with an outside shot at a third. I think there needs to be some separation in the top 2-4, can be some bunching in the .500 range for teams 5-7/8 and then 9 and 10 have to be buried by everyone else. SIU with two wins right now looks like they may not be as easily buried, sorry Bradley, but the rest of the conference has to start piling on the dirt to build some gaps.

I'm surprised no one jumped on your first paragraph, which is completely baseless.

In 2005-06 Wichita State got a #7 seed in the NCAA tournament. Their best OOC win from an RPI standpoint? #60 Northwestern St.

The Shocks relied on their six top-50 RPI wins IN VALLEY PLAY, plus having no losses outside the top-50, to secure that #7 seed. Do you know who else from the MVC didn't have any top-50 OOC wins that season? Bradley, who joined WSU in the Sweet 16.

So it's silly to claim that the selection committee didn't view those conference wins as highly as other conferences.

[Khan4Cats]

Sorry folks, but top-50 wins by MVC teams over MVC teams will not be looked on by the committee in the same way as top-50 wins by ACC teams over ACC teams or Big East over Big East, etc. Just not going to happen.

That said, there just aren't that many top-50 wins from the non-con that look solid enough to hold up. WSU over UNLV is the only one that looks like it can withstand a slip or two from UNLV in their conference. Colorado State (UNI), Vanderbilt (InSU), San Diego State and Northwestern (CU) all are hovering near enough 50 that a slip to the wrong team in conference will do more damage than a few good wins in their conferences. And I don't see Colorado State or Northwestern challenging for the tops of their conferences, which means they will be in similar positions as the Valley schools-hoping for enough blush to cover the blemishes in 'okay' resumes.

I still think the Valley has a good chance at two bids with an outside shot at a third. I think there needs to be some separation in the top 2-4, can be some bunching in the .500 range for teams 5-7/8 and then 9 and 10 have to be buried by everyone else. SIU with two wins right now looks like they may not be as easily buried, sorry Bradley, but the rest of the conference has to start piling on the dirt to build some gaps.

I'm surprised no one jumped on your first paragraph, which is completely baseless.

In 2005-06 Wichita State got a #7 seed in the NCAA tournament. Their best OOC win from an RPI standpoint? #60 Northwestern St.

The Shocks relied on their six top-50 RPI wins IN VALLEY PLAY, plus having no losses outside the top-50, to secure that #7 seed. Do you know who else from the MVC didn't have any top-50 OOC wins that season? Bradley, who joined WSU in the Sweet 16.

So it's silly to claim that the selection committee didn't view those conference wins as highly as other conferences.

What you say is probably true. It is also true that there has been a marked change in how RPI and top 50 wins has been used by the committee since 2006. I'll stand by statement that the in-conference wins won't be looked on the same way and if WSU, CU, UNI, MSU, ISU all split with each other and finish in the 13-5/12-6 range we will be more likely looking at 1 bid and not 3 or 4 because of the "4 or 5 quality in-conference top-50 wins" they may get. One of the BcS conferences ends in a cluster-F of teams that beat up on each other and have no separation will be looked on as parity and all of the teams will get in, the MVC does it and the committee will just sit back and wait for the last one standing in St. Louis.

[RoyalShock]

Khan, just saying so doesn't make it true. Can you demonstrate this "marked" change?

[glm38]

That's just his latest schtick champ. If a poster from an opposing fan base doesn't post for a few days then he calls them out for being more or less "fair weather" fans. The thing is it's only human nature for fans to come on here and talk about their team after a big win. After a big loss there really isn't as much to say.

I'm glad you're following your own advice of ignoring me. If I wasn't here, your post count would be way down.

I'm only stating facts. I really can't stand bandwagon fans. I'm here after losses and so is the majority of this board. I guess I just find the whole process humorous. So flappy after a home win to Indiana State. So quiet after a home loss to Evansville. It's just amazing how quick of a 180 can happen to certain posters.

But anyways, thank you for your concern once again.

You are welcome. I do what I can. You have a good point about not following my own advice (no sarcasm intended).

[getreal4]

Most of us longtime Valley fans have become conditioned to the dance committee finding new arguments justifying their choosing mediocre BCS conference records over 13-5 Valley teams. This year it will likely be: too few games against top 50 teams, not enough wins against other NCAA dance teams, too many nonconference games against teams not in top 100 and especially losing to a team not in the top 100.

Another concern is the Bracket Buster games will weaken the MVC's nonconference SOS. I fear most Valley teams will be matched up with significantly weaker RPI teams. No win situation, the Valley loses overall strength even with a winning BB record.

We need our nonconference opponents to improve during conference play. And we need even Bracket Buster matchups for the non TV Valley teams.

What are the chances?