Could UNI Play Their Way Back on the Bubble?

[PantherSigEp]

None of this will matter if they finish behind the Bears. If OSU beats ISU and West Virginia continues to do well in the Big East, MSU will jump UNI in SOS and would have the head to head advantage.

Very doubtful. The SOS #'s are not going to change much at this point, and UNI clearly had the better schedule. The only significant change will be with the bracketbuster games, and UNI has a better opponent (VCU), than MSU does (ODU--who UNI already beat anyway).

Really? Maybe you don't understand how SOS works. Also how did UNI clearly have the better schedule?
West Virginia > Prividence
New Mexico > Colorado State
ORU > Ohio
St. Mary's = St. Mary's
Nevada > Iowa
OSU < ISU
ODU = ODU
Ark State = Milwaukee
UALR = Northern Colarado
TAMU CC = Western Carolina

MSU has the tougher schedule by the end of the year it will be shown.

I would really like to know how you came up with this, interesting, system of ranking the two schedules. Currently I'm assuming it's just a matter of your opinion which is silly. Here is your system, minus the common OOC opponents (current RPI):

West Virginia (24) > Prividence (137)
New Mexico (42)> Colorado State (21)
ORU(45) > Ohio (81)
Nevada (75) > Iowa (120)
OSU(113) < ISU (35)
Ark State(234) = Milwaukee (135)
UALR (181) = Northern Colarado (253)
TAMU CC (320) = Western Carolina (251)

I noticed you left out 3 opponents for some odd reason, since one of them is a relatively decent team, in Tulsa.
Tulsa (104) Kenneshaw St. (314) Rice (168)


So let's go back and lay it out side by side for comparison:
MSU...........................UNI
West Virginia (24).....Colorado State (21)
Saint Mary’s (29).......Saint Mary’s (29)
New Mexico (42)........ISU (35)
ORU(45) .................Ohio (81)
Nevada (75)..............VCU (89)
Tulsa (104)...............Iowa (120)
OSU(113).................Old Dominion (126)
Old Dominion (126).....Milwaukee (135)
UALR (181)..............Providence (137)
Ark State(234)..........Rice (168)
Kenneshaw St. (314)...Western Carolina (251)
TAMU CC (320).........Northern Colarado (253)
(sorry about the random white periods, the spacing made it very difficult to discern otherwise)

Hopefully this sheds a little more light on why UNI is considered to have a stronger schedule, 0 300+ opponents and has just as many top 100 opponents on the OOC schedule as Missouri St does although it's certainly possible that each team could have another in Tulsa and Iowa respectively.

I think both teams have a lot of work cut out for them if they really want to get back into the discussion for a bid and personally I think either only gets in if they win the MVCT (or win out until the final)

If you would like to know my source for RPI it is at this link: http://statsheet.com/mcb/rankings/RPI. Probably not the best in the world but some of you seem to be using very similar numbers. It also projects UNI's final SOS as #60 and MSU's at #66 fwiw.

[shocktheheart]

From Lunardi's chat today.

Jason (Iowa)



Joe, is there any possible way Northern Iowa can get back into the mix in the at large discussion?

Joe Lunardi
(4:45 PM)



Add a win at Wichita State this week and then we'll talk, Jason.

[Hacksaw]

FWIW, ESPN currently has the non-conference SOS rankings as follows:

Creighton 183
Wichita State 31
Illinois State 299
Missouri State 58
Northern Iowa 15
Drake 170
Evansville 189
Southern Illinois 318
Indiana State 290
Bradley 38

[shocktheheart]

From Lunardi's chat today....

BigBlueGenius (Ky)



Joe, what team outside the top 25 do you think has a shot at a final four run? I have vandy.

Joe Lunardi
(4:52 PM)



Vandy is a good one. I also like Wichita State and maybe Gonzaga. Other dark horses could be Temple, West Virginia and, if they ever get it together, UConn.

[squirrel]

FWIW, ESPN currently has the non-conference SOS rankings as follows:

Creighton 183
Wichita State 31
Illinois State 299
Missouri State 58
Northern Iowa 15
Drake 170
Evansville 189
Southern Illinois 318
Indiana State 290
Bradley 38

According to the NCAA's official weekly report today, UNI has a non-con SOS of 17 and overall of 18. Which is a little better than cpac's 82.

[beatingrillz]

UNI opponents have an average RPI of 117 and MSU opponents have an average of 130. Projected has UNI opponents at 113 and MSU projections are 111. Time will tell but it could be very close. Those numbers are warren Nolan btw.

[squirrel]

I wish I knew what was discussed back in 2005, but if the numbers I found were correct, it's borderline insanity that UNI got an at large bid over WSU.

WSU had a better overall record, finished ahead of UNI in conference, had a better RPI, actually won a game in the MVC tournament (UNI was 1 and out) and could certainly be argued they were the better team, having beaten UNI handily in Cedar Falls while losing at home by one on a buzzer beater (offensive foul) 3.

It would appear that the only important criteria was the record in the final 10 games (which at 4-6 just ignores WSU's 18-3 start) and it also appears that the selection committee was looking to add a 3rd Valley team as otherwise UNI's resume is pretty weak.

My point is that UNI could be in the mix as the 3rd Valley team (assuming WSU finds a way in).

After losing that quarterfinal in 2005, everyone from UNI assumed we were NIT bound. We spent the next week watching BCS bubble teams lose and fell into the at-large discussion that year. And yes, how you played in your last 10 was a criteria that year and has since been de-emphasized by the committee.

Also, I think since 2005 was the first year the NCAA emphasized road/neutral games, UNI also benefited from that, and the NCAA rewarded them for doing what teams were encouraged to do.

There were probably better teams left out, but they had the solid RPI and played half their regular season games (not counting the MVCT) away from home.

[squirrel]

cpac...you're completely missing the point:

It's not literally about the Top 50. It's the quality of the calculation overall as a result of having so many highly rated teams in the league, it's impact on the schedule strength, and subsequently the RPI.

Now, yes, UNI has a stronger non-con SOS this year. However, it will be harder with a sub-par league performance overall, because there are fewer games against higher-rated teams, not only directly, but indirectly through the league's membership playing itself.

And I'm not even disagreeing with you on the practicality of UNI's resume on paper. I'm merely looking at the math. And frankly, the math at this point, puts UNI against the odds.

Do you really believe this stuff? Wow. I honestly don't think you are looking at the math at all.

Let me throw some more #'s your way, and then you can try and explain more about you "quality of calucation" I think the Enron guys used terms like that too.

We already looked at top 50 wins. I think you would admit that 8 to 7 is pretty negligible.

UNI's SOS right now is 23. Back in 2005 it was 74.

UNI's non-conf SOS right now is 82. Back in 2005 it was 118.

And how is the MVC sub-par this year? Conf rpi wise it' the 8th best conference. Which is exactly what it was for the 04/05 season!

But none of those things figure into the calculation. It is W% that does.

I really don't think it's necessary to go into how:

.771
.686
.676
.656
.594
.567
.448
.464
.393
.355

is collectively better in the RPI calculation than:

.875
.833
.640
.625
.583
.560
.541
.478
.333
.240

But it has a lot to the point of why those MVC teams were RPI 50 teams in 2005 and why that is an important distinction.

That is not to say that there is no inherent benefit from the current MVC uppercrust, but the movement from within won't be as dynamic unless the wins come directly against CU or WSU, or the losses come to Bradley or SIU.

[cpacmel]

According to the NCAA's official weekly report today, UNI has a non-con SOS of 17 and overall of 18. Which is a little better than cpac's 82.

That 82 came from Pomeroy.

As far as the NCAA's #'s, does anyone find it weird that UNI has such a strong non-conf SOS rating of 17 and then playing MVC games only moved that number only 1 spot? What does that say about the strength of the MVC?

[PantherSigEp]

According to the NCAA's official weekly report today, UNI has a non-con SOS of 17 and overall of 18. Which is a little better than cpac's 82.

That 82 came from Pomeroy.

As far as the NCAA's #'s, does anyone find it weird that UNI has such a strong non-conf SOS rating of 17 and then playing MVC games only moved that number only 1 spot? What does that say about the strength of the MVC?

If I'm reading you correctly, good things. It needs to become a continuous trend that MVC play is more difficult than OOC play, but in the right ways (i.e. continue to setup up challenging schedules) so that our conference can continue to recruit great talent and make a name as one of the nations top conferences, even among the "Power 6".