What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Discuss the MVC hoops season here.

What happens next?

Wichita St leaves for a better league
40
37%
Missouri St, IllinoisSt, UNI move up to FBS
27
25%
MVC expands
40
37%
 
Total votes : 107

Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby Jsnhbe1Birds » June 26th, 2017, 7:43 am

RacerJoeD wrote:The travel is a budget buster for all sports and doesn't do much for your strength of conference. Otherwise, NMSU and GCU would already be in another conference.


Its a budget buster for MVC if you are like Creighton and and have to travel to the east coast numerous times per year. Creighton is actually having an issue with travel cost. Unlike Creighton, the MVC would have to make one trip to the southwest per school and hit both schools while out there. Again, that's a total of less than $50,000 per school if you do the math.
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby Red » June 26th, 2017, 11:27 am

Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:
RacerJoeD wrote:The travel is a budget buster for all sports and doesn't do much for your strength of conference. Otherwise, NMSU and GCU would already be in another conference.


Creighton is actually having an issue with travel cost.

Hogwash. I haven't seen anyone verify this. Creighton is getting many millions more in TV money and NCAA unit allocation. Similarly, Wichita State will be fine in the AAC.
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby RacerJoeD » June 26th, 2017, 9:13 pm

Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:
RacerJoeD wrote:The travel is a budget buster for all sports and doesn't do much for your strength of conference. Otherwise, NMSU and GCU would already be in another conference.


Its a budget buster for MVC if you are like Creighton and and have to travel to the east coast numerous times per year. Creighton is actually having an issue with travel cost. Unlike Creighton, the MVC would have to make one trip to the southwest per school and hit both schools while out there. Again, that's a total of less than $50,000 per school if you do the math.


I'm not sure where you get $50k per school. But adding GCU and NMSU for $50k is still a bad deal.
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby uniguy » June 27th, 2017, 10:18 am

If the Horizon League adds Grand Canyon and NMSU, they will be more likely to get multiple bids in a given year than the MVC. If that is how you judge conference strength, they will be stronger than us. The time to be proactive is now.
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby RacerJoeD » June 27th, 2017, 1:45 pm

I dont think there is any data anywhere that bears that out.
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby VUGrad1314 » June 27th, 2017, 3:00 pm

RacerJoeD wrote:I dont think there is any data anywhere that bears that out.


Maybe not yet but it's not a farfetched statement.New Mexico State is constantly a top 60-100 program even in the dismal WAC and GCU's potential is off the charts. This would be like adding Valpo back in plus another program that's about at Oakland \NKU level now with the potential to be more without losing either of those schools. At the top the Horizon always seemed to have one less program than the MVC along with a bit more weakness on the bottom. With Wichita State moving on and Valpo moving in from the Horizon League, that balance has been maintained but add NMSU and GCU to the mix and it's a whole new ball game with four likely top 100 schools and 2-3 more, Green Bay UIC and Wright State, that could get up toward that level. Luckily with programs like Illinois State Northern Iowa Missouri State and Valpo alongside rising programs like Bradley Loyola and Southern Illinois and no true bottom feeders, the Valley is well-positioned to remain ahead of the Horizon League even with these additions but it would certainly help close the gap between the two conferences. Ultimately, I don't think we have to worry about this scenario, as I think travel costs are going to derail it. I'd watch for the Summit which makes more geographic sense for these schools to make a play for them especially if they grade out ahead of the Horizon again .
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby RacerJoeD » June 27th, 2017, 4:28 pm

Those schools haven't been a panacea for the WAC. I will stipulate that the Horizon is better (outside of NMSU and GCU) than the WAC. But I have to ask the question- If NMSU and GCU are such a homer of an add, Why haven't any West Coast conferences been sniffing around after them? Why are they still in the WAC?
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby VUGrad1314 » June 29th, 2017, 7:31 am

RacerJoeD wrote:Those schools haven't been a panacea for the WAC. I will stipulate that the Horizon is better (outside of NMSU and GCU) than the WAC. But I have to ask the question- If NMSU and GCU are such a homer of an add, Why haven't any West Coast conferences been sniffing around after them? Why are they still in the WAC?


This statement seems a bit unfair. If you're counting on two teams and only two teams to carry the water for a conference without any other team providing any support whatsoever by being even semi-respectable, the conference isn't going to look very good despite the best efforts of those two teams. What you're essentially saying is that the MVC shouldn't add Murray State or Belmont because in spite of the profile, prestige , and basketball power of those two schools, the OVC still sucks.

The conferences out West haven't made a play for these schools for a variety of reasons , few of which have to do with their basketball teams' on-court performance. Some of these may resonate with you, as they may speak to potential reasons why Murray State isn't in the MVC right now.

Before I begin, however, let me state that I was an ardent supporter of Murray State's candidacy, and feel that the Racers should have been added alongside Valpo; and I'm sorry that your current coach looks like a dud and is harming an otherwise sterling, decades-long performance record. Hopefully, he, or somebody else, can get things turned around in short order, and you guys can join us in this still-great mid-major conference. You'll always have my support (until we play you that is).

First, let's establish some general premises that most schools considering realignment must follow. Any move:
1. Must make geographic sense
2. Must make financial sense and
3. Must make competitive sense.

The converse must also be true for any conference accepting a new member . Any new member
1. Must make geographic sense
2. Must make financial sense and
3. Must make competitive sense

Other factors such as school size academic profile and residential profile are also considered and any of the aforementioned factors may be more or less important depending on the situation. For example, Wichita State's move to the AAC was primarily about the Shockers making competitive sense for the AAC Although each of those factors played a role such as the fact that the AAC schools are city-based R2 schools, just like Wichita State . The Valley's approach struck me as similarly holistic, while the schools--namely Valpo and Murray State-- were driven by competition , finances, and academic \residential profile, and the Horizon's move for IUPUI seemed to stress geography though the campus profile fits the conference well and the move checked all the boxes for the school

Now, the reasons GCU and NMSU have not attracted a lot of interest out west vary, although they have some that overlap:

Issues Hindering realignment for NMSU and GCU:

1. Lack of Options: (both schools)

As things presently stand, these schools don't really have anywhere else to go. These schools only really make sense as a tandem add (unless GCU which doesn't have football goes with Denver ) but Denver doesn't move the needle for any basketball conference and schools may be reluctant to add them, even with GCU as the prize because of this). The two schools don't make a ton of sense as travel partners but they aren't horrible. But realistically these schools can only hope to join The Summit The WCC or maybe a super-ambitious MVC That has already expanded its footprint into at least Texas\Oklahoma. Not likely to happen. The only league that has shown interest , the Horizon League , will meet with stiff resistance from cash strapped member schools who don't want the added travel burden if this move is discussed, despite the increase in basketball profile these schools bring. Conversely, much like Murray State, these schools can't be too thrilled about the prospect of committing significant financial resources to a move to a Valpo-less Horizon League . The competitive benefit just isn't there.

2. Travel (Both schools)

Any league, even the WCC, which is the closest conference that provides a meaningful enough competition boost, would add significantly to its travel budget to bring these teams in. I think the conference can handle it given the potential benefit but each school presents at least one major issue that would give even the WCC pause as I will explain below.

3. Reluctance of certain conferences to expand beyond current membership levels.(Both Schools)

Sound familiar? It's the reason Murray\Valpo was an either\or proposition for the MVC, as was Evansville \Butler back in the '90's. Leagues that make geographic sense, such as the MWC aren't open to these schools because they aren't open to expansion at this time . The chief reason for this is likely because they want to maintain membership flexibility for the next big realignment event in a few years, in case something even more appealing comes available . That said, there's a chance these schools may be involved in that realignment in some way.

4. Football This is THE sport that drives most every realignment except for the current mini-realignment of this offseason involving Wichita State, Valp, and IUPUI. Football may also have been a major reason why Valpo edged out Murray. Our program , such as it is, was completely unaffected by the conference move, and as such, was in a great position to handle this move. It's much easier for a school with a Pioneer League team or no team to move on short notice than a team having to move from one FCS Conference to another Anyway , both NMSU and GCU face issues related to football , albeit for different reasons.

4A. Football and the quality thereof (NMSU)

If I had to speculate I would guess that the ultimate goal of the Aggies is to get into the Mountain West joining in-state rival New Mexico and several former conference mates from the WAC after the MWC lost several football members to the Pac 12 (Utah) Big 12 (TCU) and Independent status (BYU), however Aggie football absolutely sucks. They haven't had a winning season since 2002 and haven't won more than 4 games in any season since 2004 and that's in the Sun Belt. No league is going to take on that kind of mediocrity, especially not a league that struggles to get a seat at the table with the big boys as is. Their basketball team could hold their own in the MWC, but the conference isn't going to add basketball only members that would take them out of any future realignment discussions. And if they did, you can bet that Gonzaga and St Mary's would get calls before either school. I suppose Conference USA could be an option for NMSU for both sports, but that's a big travel headache, needs a companion addition (and no other candidate has footbal ) and the conference is already at 14 teams anyway so they're probably reluctant to add more.

4B. Football and the lack thereof (GCU)

Not having football , or at least D1 football limits your options when it comes to finding a conference, and to get the attention of basketball-only conferences, you have to be pretty good. AND in most expansion scenarios that use even numbers even if you're a good enough addition yourself you need an acceptable companion addition usually within reasonable distance of your own institution. I'd say the upper limit for what constitutes a reasonable distance for a travel partner is about four hours. Maybe six in truly desperate circumstances . Add in the geographic hardship of being out west, with its relative paucity of schools and teams and the list of conferences that can take you is small indeed. As I said , realistically you're down to the Summit the WCC or a midwestern league post-unlikely grand westward expansion. Of these options,only the WCC provides enough benefit to make a jump, and even THEN there are potential complications.

5. Institutional Profile Another major issue governing realignment is a school's institutional profile. Schools often seek to congregate with and coalesce around other likeminded universities that share a common set of core values. Therefore whether a school is public or private Religious or secular large or small , commuter-based or residential , urban rural or suburban and its research classification matter greatly in realignment issues. Even if we accept that the WCC is the best even semi-realistic landing spot for NMSU and GCU, they both require some degree of exception-making and plunge-taking And again, the biggest reason why has absolutely NOTHING to do with basketball

5A. Public Status (NMSU)
New Mexico State University's status as a public institution would not be an issue for most conferences, but it may be for the WCC, a conference exclusively of private schools.Once an exception is made, it cannot be unmade and is likely to be made again . Should the WCC grant NMSU this exception knowing that the Aggies would bolt to the Mountain West at the first hint of an opportunity? That depends on how real the desire is of Gonzaga and perhaps BYU to bolt for Greener pastures. Would New Mexico State want to join a conference that isn't a super ideal geographic fit with institutions with which it has precious little in common? That depends on how eager the Aggies are to increase their basketball profile. Since the latter is true , as evidenced by NMSU's flirtation with the Horizon League and I can only assume that the former is also true especially as the specter of realignment continues to loom and the rumors of Gonzaga jumping ship persist, as adding this caliber of program may forestall any movement from the conference.

5B. For-Profit status (GCU)

GCU being a private school makes it a great WCC candidate. Its for-profit status, however, may give member schools pause. They may not like the optics of adding a school whose values by virtue of being for profit, run counter to what are at least the stated values of the NCAA. The conference members may also worry that the same fate that befell the other 9 MVC members when Wichita's Koch money was still around would happen to them. With a school like Gonzaga and other established powers like St Mary's and BYU as well as strong brand names like San Francisco and Pepperdine around, that scenario is unlikely to come to pass , although the concern is a valid one It's one thing for a conference fighting for its very survival to take on a school like GCU, even for a conference struggling to maintain national relevance like the Horizon, but what about a conference that's already stable , established , and strong?

Ultimately, I think Gonzaga will have whatever it desires. If they want NMSU and GCU in the WCC to increase conference strength and make it a probable 3-4 bid league, it will happen, optics and exceptions be damned. I think the WCC are waiting out what rival leagues do before making a move . If they sense a challenge from one or more leagues, or if they sense that the WAC is breaking up for good, they'll try to strengthen themselves to guard against future realignment. In any WCC expansion, rest assured that NMSU and GCU will be the first calls. The upside of these programs is very real.

6. Stability

In realignment , a candidate school must be stable; just as a candidate school hopes that the league they are joining is stable. Both sides need to be reasonably certain of what they're getting; but just as there's
no perfect add, there is no perfect league. Both sides simply need to find the schools and leagues that best suit them and provide the best combination of the factors outlined in this post. For reference, this is one area where Murray State probably graded out ahead of Valpo, though the last few years make it very close , as KenPom attests.In short, all realignment requires to some degree a leap of faith. The league counts on the new member to help it stay strong; and the new member counts on the league to stay strong through the other members doing their part. Generally speaking, both sides hold up the bargain just fine, and there is little real reason to believe that Wichita State, Valpo, and Murray State, New Mexico State, and GCU should the latter three also switch leagues someday won't do just that.

All of the leagues mentioned in this post, with the exception of the WAC and possibly the Summit are stable. Adding NMSU and GCU would do wonders for the stability of the Summit League, but as I've said , a move to the Summit is unlikely for either school. There's just not enough there for them competitively. And although both programs offer considerable upside, remember that one cannot subsist on upside alone. As the legendary John Thompson said "potential will get you fired." each has reasons for doubt as a stable addition.

6A. New Coach (NMSU)

Anytime a new coach is hired, the stability and culture of a program are tested. Good programs like Murray State Valpo Wichita State, Northern Iowa, and Butler to name a few examples,handle these transitions well and the program keeps moving. If a mistake is made, it is corrected quickly to avoid lasting damage to the program. New Mexico State has survived multiple coaching changes more or less unscathed as a program and there is no reason yet to doubt the new hire, although time will tell. Of the two, New Mexico State is the more stable program with their proven track record of D1 success, something GCU, for all its upside, lacks. I will say this,though, losing your coach to your in-state rival that had a vastly inferior record and was rocked by scandal isn't a great look, but the Aggies as a program deserve the benefit of any doubt.

6B. Lack of a proven D1 Track record (GCU)

If NMSU is the safer, more stable play, GCU is the more exciting , flashier, higher upside play . Numerous college basketball observers have pegged Grand Canyon University as the next great mid-major power on the order of Gonzaga, Butler, or Xavier ,or Wichita State. And why not ? They seem to have everything going for them:Big market , top notch facilities, passionate fan base , deep pockets, a talented roster, and an ex-NBA player as Head Coach. They're getting talked up as a realignment add based on their upside alone. Unfortunately for them, their greatest selling point is simultaneously their greatest hindrance. It's all upside, it's all theoretical, and they've proven nothing. Myriad reasons abound on why you should believe the hype that the potential is real , but until they're a consistent top 100 team (Note they've already done it once) and notching tournament appearances and wins, I can understand some apprehension; especially from a league like the WCC or the MVC, but equally unproven teams boasting far less potential than this one have been added to better leagues than the WAC. I'd bet on the optimistic side on this one and expect that the Lopes will begin their ascent sooner rather than later. Whoever gets in on the ground floor with GCU will be glad they did. No two schools potentially available to any mid major conference --not even Belmont or Murray State nor Loyola or Valpo before them possess greater potential to positively impact the fortunes of a conference than these two southwestern teams; and you can take this to the bank: If they were anywhere near the current MVC footprint, they'd already be members and you, me, and every other Horizon League and OVC fan would be on the outside looking in, hoping to one day get a seat at the MVC table.
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby RacerJoeD » June 29th, 2017, 7:52 am

I think the difference is that the OVC has NCAA wins in its current iteration.
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby VUGrad1314 » June 29th, 2017, 9:41 am

RacerJoeD wrote:I think the difference is that the OVC has NCAA wins in its current iteration.


I think you're a good poster and have nothing against you, but your dismissive reply to a post I worked very hard on and put a lot of thought into ticks me off a little; what's more, it's factually inaccurate.

First off,of course NMSU and GCU aren't a panacea for the WAC because no such thing exists. There is no saving that conference, and I bet even the WAC Commissioner would tell you this in an off the record moment of candor away from media. That doesn't mean, however, that there aren't any worthwhile programs that can help strengthen a mid-major conference, which was one of the central points of my post.

Now on to your reply...

Okay, the OVC isn't a terrible conference. Then why are your AD and fanbase stumping so hard to leave it despite being a charter member of the conference? I'm very dismayed that that's all you took from my post. You wanted an explanation as to why opposing conferences are reluctant to add these schools and conclude that they must not be great teams. I demonstrate why that conclusion is false, outlining several reasons that have nothing to do with basketball to explain the reluctance of other conferences to add these schools, but you choose to hone in on the one part of my post where I take a small swipe at your current conference--a conference many in your fanbase seem to hate and want nothing more to do with. I invite anyone to read the post from you that I quoted and then the first paragraph of my long post and tell me that they don't draw a similar conclusion to the one I drew.

You're trying to have it both ways. "We need a better conference but look at all these tournament wins from a time before Belmont joined." So actually no the OVC has zero tournament wins in its current iteration just like the number of times Murray's been to the dance in the OVC's current setup. You're also 2-5 against Belmont since they've joined including 0-2 in the conference tournament and have finished ahead of the Bruins exactly once. If Murray State gets in to the MVC one day and I sincerely hope they do those old tournament wins aren't going to be the reason why. It'll be because you finally started beating Belmont and reclaimed the mantle of the conference that you've so clearly lost.
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