What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Discuss the MVC hoops season here.

What happens next?

Wichita St leaves for a better league
40
37%
Missouri St, IllinoisSt, UNI move up to FBS
27
25%
MVC expands
40
37%
 
Total votes : 107

Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby uniftw » December 20th, 2016, 4:12 pm

SubGod22 wrote:
MSU and the Belt could happen, but there would need to be one more and most likely from the east. Is there a desirable option to make the eastern schools happy? If not, MSU would have a hard time getting in. I could see UNI and ISUr potentially in the MAC, but that's two more mouths to feed and some believe if the MAC expands it'll be in the east. I'm not sure it's that simple though. But there are some NE type schools that have been rumored to be interested in moving up. I believe Stony Brook is making efforts to improve facilities and set themselves up and I recently heard that Delaware has a new president that may be interested. That would give the MAC options on where to go, but there's still the numbers game.

Maybe the next CFP deal changes things and expansion becomes more reasonable for these conferences. As it is, many of these schools rely on every penny they can get from the CFP deal and are unlikely to be open to sharing with the way things are now. If there's movement in the P5 then who knows what opens up, but that appears to be quiet for the next few years. A lot can change between now and then.

The eastern schools that are wanting to move, may move, are:

James Madison: supposedly they'll turn anything that isn't CUSA or AAC down. They told the Sun Belt no and apparently wanted the MAC to cave to a long list of demands.

Liberty: a billion dollars from their diploma mill online religious programs, gorgeous facilities, and no where to go. Turns out being founded by a far right win religious nut job, and continuing on with his traditions, doesn't sit well with public institutions looking to add to their conferences. It's why a program like Coastal Carolina gets a call for the Sun Belt and Liberty wasn't talked about.

Delaware: Interesting here. The old president, AD and football coach were all a massive drag. UD used to average 22-25K for football games, have 15K plus season tickets, etc... That was completely killed by the last set of people in charge. The new guys? They seem like they want to move. They just stole a great football coach from an in conference rival while he was still coaching in the playoffs. UD would be an interesting one to watch for CUSA or the MAC.

Stony Brook: I don't know where you heard that one. I know they've made improvements but they are still bottom half of the FCS for facilities and support.

Eastern Kentucky: I don't know how they sit financially, but they REALLY want to move and have been making moves to make themselves attractive

Outside of those 5 there isn't at on of FCS schools out east looking to move. You put those 5 with Northern Iowa, Youngstown State, Illinois State, Missouri State and maybe the two xDSU's and that's about it for teams that could, and would, move FBS currently sitting in the FCS
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby jwa123 » December 20th, 2016, 5:35 pm

Excellent post unitfw! The one point I might squabble a bit on is MSU being most ready for FBS. They have not historically seen much success in football at any level and don't seem to draw much for attendance. I know they hired a new coach a couple years ago and from what I have read a very capable one so given time most likely will turn things around. Then again I might be assessing their situation incorrectly and some MSU faithfull will be here shortly to set the record straight in addition to you.

As an ISUr fan, like you I too tend to think of UNI as a sister institution in that both have similar goals for both football and basketball so a move together would not be surprising. On the other hand, as mentioned in a previous post, the MVFC could serve as the backbone for a new conference. I am slowly warming up to that idea which many of brethen will view as heretical. The Dakota schools are all excellent academically and sometimes this is a factor when conference mates are set up.

As for WSU, if they should get an AAC invite, I think it would be something they should jump on.
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby AceMatt » December 20th, 2016, 7:49 pm

uniftw wrote: :o
I guess when it comes to a split I'd listen to the bitching of the private schools if any of them could actually contribute on a consistent basis - or at all. More often than not a minimum of 2 of the 4 are PIG teams. Last season 3 of the 4 were. The year before it was 2. Hell, just 3 years ago all 4 PIG teams were the private schools. If it was the public schools dragging the conference down, I'd get it. But it's not the public schools.


It's not just the MVC, look at the A-10 standings this year based on non-conference record. The bottom 7 teams are all private schools. Only Dayton and Saint Bonnie are with the 5 public schools in the top 7.
Generally speaking it seems it's easier to "fall off" at private schools especially when competing with big schools that can outspend you. Once you have a few bad years in a row, then it's harder to find recruits to bring you back, the community support and attendance both drop, and the downward spiral begins. It happened to Evansville and its happening to Bradley and Drake now. In the A-10, the attendance at Fordham and Duquesne are both under 1,000 per game.
Whether it would happen or not, I feel like the schools would be better served to re-align that way and restore a competitive balance. The more level playing field would create better competition. The hope would be to have less of a stretch of dismal seasons and more frequent opportunities for post season success. This would keep programs from becoming buried and community support and attendance would increase along with revenue.
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby uniftw » December 21st, 2016, 7:01 am

jwa123 wrote:Excellent post unitfw! The one point I might squabble a bit on is MSU being most ready for FBS. They have not historically seen much success in football at any level and don't seem to draw much for attendance. I know they hired a new coach a couple years ago and from what I have read a very capable one so given time most likely will turn things around. Then again I might be assessing their situation incorrectly and some MSU faithfull will be here shortly to set the record straight in addition to you.

As an ISUr fan, like you I too tend to think of UNI as a sister institution in that both have similar goals for both football and basketball so a move together would not be surprising. On the other hand, as mentioned in a previous post, the MVFC could serve as the backbone for a new conference. I am slowly warming up to that idea which many of brethen will view as heretical. The Dakota schools are all excellent academically and sometimes this is a factor when conference mates are set up.

As for WSU, if they should get an AAC invite, I think it would be something they should jump on.

MSU being garbage probably isn't what holds them back, nearly as much as being west and the SBC looking east.

CCU has only had a football program since 2003, have a stadium that holds less than 9,000 people, and less than 3,000 season ticket holders. They have a basketball program that plays in a high school size gymnasium. HOWEVER, they have a damn good baseball program and are in Carolina. Look at the recent SBC additions - App State (NC), Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Coastal Carolina (South Carolina). As conference realignment has played out the conference has shifted from Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama and Texas to the east coast area.

Now, a few years ago they did add two Texas School - UT-Arlington and Texas State. I think UT-A was only to balance travel with TSU.

TSU is proof that being good isn't required to move to the FBS. TSU had something like 5 winning seasons between 1984 and 2012, while the FCS technically started in 1978, 1985 is widely considered the start of what we know as the FCS. They made the playoffs twice in that time frame.

By comparison, over that same time MSU has had 11 winning seasons and 2 playoff trips. Granted, since about 1993 Missouri State has been one of the worst FCS programs in the nation and hasn't won more than 6 games since 1996 and almost 10 of their last 13 seasons over .500 have been 6-5 only only 3 times since 1962 have they won more than 7 games (with two of those in 89 and 90).

It could be argued if MSU was a UNI, or even ISUr (who, to be honest outside of the last 3 or 4 years hasn't been a good program either), type program they may have gotten an invite. However, given the Sun Belt dumping Idaho and NMSU and going out to the eastern seaboard leads me to believe they still would struggle to get an invite.

The Southland would have been a great landing spot for MSU, but they've been so desperate for members the last half decade they are at 13 full members and 10 football members - including taking the likes of New Orleans (non-FB), Incarnate Word (FB...yes that's a real school), Houston Baptist (FB...yes that's a real school). They also added Oral Roberts in 2012 with those other three and a year and a half later ORU decided they wanted back into the Summit. Between 2006 and 2014 the SLC lost Louisana Monroe, Texas State, Texas Arlington, Texas San Antonio and Oral Roberts. Missouri State certainly could have leveraged something with the SLC if they truly wanted out of the MVC. They'd dominate SLC basketball and finish at/near the top of SLC football most years.
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby SubGod22 » December 21st, 2016, 8:47 am

I forgot about the WAC option. It's probably unlikely, but there was a report by an AD or WAC representative that the NCAA confirmed to them that they are still capable of offering FBS membership. The transition process can be quite challenging considering there will only be one current FBS member of the WAC, unless something happened quickly and Idaho reversed course. But the home game requirement is complicated by not having FBS conference members off the bat.

With that said, there has been some speculation that the WAC may try to convince a number of FCS schools in the Big Sky/MVFC and maybe a couple of Texas schools to make a move. The problem is, they'd need at least 7 schools to move all sports to the WAC and not just be football members from my understanding. The WAC has a couple of good/decent basketball programs but nothing overly special. Would a group of others be willing to join in order to move to FBS? Would a group of UNI, ISU, MSU be willing to join with a few others if the MVC were splitting? Everyone looks to NDSU as a potential FBS team but everything you read coming from there is they have no desire to move up. Could that change if there's a bunch of movement from others to go to the WAC?

As far as Stony Brook, I don't know details, just what I've read elsewhere. They may not be ready just yet but I've heard they're working towards those improvements in order to set themselves up. Being in NY doesn't hurt them if they can improve others aspects. And as someone pointed out, FCS success doesn't guarantee or prevent anyone from moving up. A lot of other factors play into it. Liberty is the most ready and able FCS to move up but will be waiting a long ass time.
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby uniftw » December 21st, 2016, 11:50 am

SubGod22 wrote:I forgot about the WAC option. It's probably unlikely, but there was a report by an AD or WAC representative that the NCAA confirmed to them that they are still capable of offering FBS membership. The transition process can be quite challenging considering there will only be one current FBS member of the WAC, unless something happened quickly and Idaho reversed course. But the home game requirement is complicated by not having FBS conference members off the bat.

With that said, there has been some speculation that the WAC may try to convince a number of FCS schools in the Big Sky/MVFC and maybe a couple of Texas schools to make a move. The problem is, they'd need at least 7 schools to move all sports to the WAC and not just be football members from my understanding. The WAC has a couple of good/decent basketball programs but nothing overly special. Would a group of others be willing to join in order to move to FBS? Would a group of UNI, ISU, MSU be willing to join with a few others if the MVC were splitting? Everyone looks to NDSU as a potential FBS team but everything you read coming from there is they have no desire to move up. Could that change if there's a bunch of movement from others to go to the WAC?

As far as Stony Brook, I don't know details, just what I've read elsewhere. They may not be ready just yet but I've heard they're working towards those improvements in order to set themselves up. Being in NY doesn't hurt them if they can improve others aspects. And as someone pointed out, FCS success doesn't guarantee or prevent anyone from moving up. A lot of other factors play into it. Liberty is the most ready and able FCS to move up but will be waiting a long ass time.
The WAC is intriguing in a way to me. As an FCS fan the teams that would be part of the new WAC would be teams I would love to play against in football. The teams I see rumored most are Montana, Montana State, Eastern Washington, NDSU, SDSU, Northern Arizona, Idaha, NMSU, etc... Most of the Big Sky programs don't have near the money to make FBS work and those that do (Montanan/Montana State) don't seem to want it. They are also tied together through the state legislator so that makes that even more complicated.

NDSU and SDSU moved up together and seem to want to stay together. Where the gets real dicey is South Dakota and North Dakota moved up together and then split. It appears the state of SD is going to tether USD and SDSU together and ND seems towards moving NDSU and UND being tethered. Both SDSU and NDSU are trying to avoid that, but it's going to be tough. For them to avoid it it needs to happen in the next year or two.

I think, knowing the FCS land scape, a good start to the WAC....good being relative to knowing it's the worst FBS conference....would be

Idaho
Missouri State
Montana
Montana State
New Mexico State
North Dakota State
Northern Iowa
South Dakota State


Then it becomes what other FCS programs that want too can, and would, go for that. Maybe pull a Texas school, but I'd doubt it. Mostly likely is getting some combo of Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Western Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Eastern Washington, Weber State, and/or maybe Southern Utah. That would be a killer FCS conference, but I'm not sure any of those would go into that thinking "Yeah, that'll work at the FBS".

From the UNI perspective I don't see that being gone for. From a basketball standpoint there isn't much there. A decade ago? Maybe. At this point basketball is driving the boat at UNI for deciding what direction to go if something goes south. That's where UNI may differ from a program like Missouri State, SIU or even Illinois State. MSU, for sure, is letting football 100% drive. UNI won't subject the basketball program into a bad spot just to move football. It's why the MAC is interesting. The MAC isn't a basketball conference but it's getting better. The MAC with UNI (and whomever else to balance schedule) is better than the MVC without WSU.

I think there are too many potential hang ups for the WAC to happen, but it would be interesting to get honest answers from schools on if they'd do it, or what it would take.
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby squirrel » December 21st, 2016, 1:16 pm

Chicago State is more likely to close its doors in the next few years than start a football team. If they started a football team, that would account for as many new students as this year's Fall frosh enrollment (86) for the entire university, while simultaneously multiplying their operating deficits exponentially. (I know no one here has mentioned it, but I did see on another board someone suggested that it would be a possibility.)

That said, Stony Brook is also interesting, in that Fordham fought to have the Patriot League reinstitute scholarships for football a few years ago, a seeming indicator that Lombardi U. may be interested in re-emphasizing football.
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby Redhawk » December 21st, 2016, 1:25 pm

uniftw wrote:
The MAC with UNI (and whomever else to balance schedule) is better than the MVC without WSU.



The MAC is a better overall option for ISUr athletics and profile than the MVC with or without WSU.
It's highly unlikely though that they are willing to do what is necessary to make that happen!
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby MSUDuo » December 21st, 2016, 1:47 pm

jwa123 wrote:Excellent post unitfw! The one point I might squabble a bit on is MSU being most ready for FBS. They have not historically seen much success in football at any level and don't seem to draw much for attendance. I know they hired a new coach a couple years ago and from what I have read a very capable one so given time most likely will turn things around. Then again I might be assessing their situation incorrectly and some MSU faithfull will be here shortly to set the record straight in addition to you.

As an ISUr fan, like you I too tend to think of UNI as a sister institution in that both have similar goals for both football and basketball so a move together would not be surprising. On the other hand, as mentioned in a previous post, the MVFC could serve as the backbone for a new conference. I am slowly warming up to that idea which many of brethen will view as heretical. The Dakota schools are all excellent academically and sometimes this is a factor when conference mates are set up.

As for WSU, if they should get an AAC invite, I think it would be something they should jump on.


I know attendance is figured differently at every school and I have no clue how MSU does it but being ranked #18 in FCS attendance for 2015 is nothing to sneeze at. Especially considering how bad we have been for so long.
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Re: What's the next realignment domino to fall?

Postby uniftw » December 21st, 2016, 2:23 pm

MSUDuo wrote:
I know attendance is figured differently at every school and I have no clue how MSU does it but being ranked #18 in FCS attendance for 2015 is nothing to sneeze at. Especially considering how bad we have been for so long.

MSU and Youngstown are two of the biggest culprits of reporting a ticket count that doesn't match AIS. Youngstown will announce 15-18K and have about 3K in the seat.

Attendance issues are a joke when it comes to FBS memberships. I'm thinking that won't be an issue.
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