What's the next realignment domino to fall?

[RacerJoeD]

There is no way to effectively prove a negative in most situations. What my points have been is that there is a strange belief that somehow for every conference in the Midwest, the two best teams to try to get are GCU and NMSU. What I've been looking to get is a reason besides "they spend money" as for to why. I didn't disagree with your post, but what it did do is further prove my point. (Why interrupt when someone is making your point for you?)

The biggest issue facing mid major conferences is travel cost. That is a major negative for most conferences and should be as would you rather spend money on increased travel or on facilities, coaches, etc?

The assumption is that those schools will increase competition in a conference, but as you do eloquently stated, GCU has no track record to point to and NMSU has no real recent success.

Nothing about NMSU (and to a far lesser extent GCU) screams stability. NMSU has bounced from conference to conference for decades and is looking to bounce again. Perhaps GCU can join with Abilene Christian in the Southland. Maybe NMSU should try for the MWC. Either way, a horrible add for a conference like the Horizon or even the MVC IMO.

I disagree with football being the major driver for realignment. That may be true for the Big 12, but for the Horizon? But that doesn't really matter to the conversation at hand.

If the two teams can't be the reason why the WAC gets better, why would they be the reason the Horizon gets better? Or the MVC for that matter? Especially when one takes into account all the resasons you listed.

Now to answer your question as to why Murray State wants to leave the OVC.

1. It's not a bad conference, but it's not a good conference. The conference leadership (and the associated school's leadership) doesn't seem to have any desire to get better.

2. Academically, we do not fit. Way too many APR infractions in the OVC.

3. We are a basketball school looking for a basketball conference.

4. We are geographically nearby, meaning we can keep our money going into our programs instead of into travel.

[uniftw]

I disagree with football being the major driver for realignment. That may be true for the Big 12, but for the Horizon? But that doesn't really matter to the conversation at hand.

If the two teams can't be the reason why the WAC gets better, why would they be the reason the Horizon gets better? Or the MVC for that matter? Especially when one takes into account all the resasons you listed.

Football is still a massive driver of realignment at the MVC, Summit, OVC and HL levels. Most of the fans at this level are just too blind/ignorant to acknowledge and see it.

To show you how intertwined this all is I will involve the OVC, Summit, WAC, MVC, MVFC and potentially D2 and the NEC all from one move - Valpo to the MVC. A "non-football" school moving to a non-football conference.

1. Valpo moves to the MVC leaving a spot in the HL - a non football league

2. As part of the move the MVC indicates that a move to 12 is imminent and the heaviest favorite for spot 11 is a football school from the OVC - Murray State. Likely a portion of the reason the MVC didn't go to 12 with Murray State up from is the OVC not willing to let football stay an affiliate member and the MVFC no ready to add another member as soon as would be needed. (We'll get back to this real soon)

3. As a reaction to Valpo leaving the Horizon is exploring it's options - and added 1 already in IUPUI. That means the Summit (a conference already on the ledge of disaster due to the FB/non FB and geography split they are facing) is down a member. It seems far too logical to pass that IPFW isn't far behind on the Horizon train. That hurts the Summit even more - doubly so as IPFW as they play baseball and them leaving puts the Summit at 5 baseball schools, which triggers a 2 year probation period to get back to 6 baseball schools or lose the autobid.

Here's were it gets confusing and football really starts to play in as the Summit/OVC/WAC and even Big Sky start to come into it

4. The Summit is in trouble. They need baseball schools and members. Quality would be nice, but they likely won't get to be too picky. This likely is where the WAC and Summit try to cannibalize each other, with the Summit probably "winning". UMKC, UTRGV, Chicago State and the WAC disolving into the SL and WCC.

OR the Dakota's get what they want - and are pushing for - the Summit adds football as a sport. That means USD, SDSU, NDSU and UND (joining in 2020) are all gone from the MVFC. They likely grab Southern Utah, Northern Colorado, Weber State and maybe Cal Poly as a FB only member, and recreate the old Great West conference. This would also test NMSU's desire to continue FBS as an independant. The new SL would likely go after NMSU and GCU as well. This would have a massive impact in a couple ways

The WAC is dead. The Big Sky got smaller and lost football schools. The Missouri Valley is "okay", but the MVFC (an by proxy) got a bit shakey. Not too bad, but a bid. There are still enough members left for an autobid with UNI, SIU, ISUR, ISUB, YSU, MSU. It's possible that WIU gets to hang around as a 7th member as well - if the HL takes them with IPFW as part of their expansion

WIU won't be able to afford sending their teams to Utah, Arizona, Colorado, etc... multiple times per year. The Horizon makes sense for everyone.

The MVC then has an easier path to take Murray State as the football side opens up easier. That would give the MVFC 8 teams - UNI, SIU, ISUX2, MSU X2, YSU, and WIU. Best case would be for the MVC to add Stephen F Austin along with Murray State. That gives 9 football members (perfect number) to the MVFC and 12 to the MVC. Make football an MVC sport at that point. Start to insulate the schools from outside factors - like having half you members in a one sport conference that could implode at any moment because it's made of 3 other conferences (HL, MVC and SL).

Better yet, Drake and Valpo nut up and play big boy D1 football with the rest of us then add a school like UALR or UT-Arlington with Murray State. But that will never happen.

The OVC might grab WIU when Murray State becomes a MVC/MVFC member. They might grab a D2 move up. They could grab some ASUN/NEC teams (just like the HL)to fill holes in their membership.

I know that sounds extreme, but's not. The SL and WAC are on utter life support and when they implode it's going to get rocky around the MM level - and football will drive it to a large extent.

It's why I hate the MVC - especially Drake, UE, Bradley and possibly Valpo's stance on football schools. They see it as nothing except a drain that holds ADs back - yet as we've shown many times it's the schools with that attitude killing the MVC the last decade.

What the MVC should do is this

Bradley
Drake
Evansville
Illinois State
Indiana State
Loyola
Missouri State
Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois
Valpo

PLUS
Murray State
Stephan F Austin

Let the Summit schools take their programs elsewhere. Have an MVFC of
Illinois State
Indiana State
Missouri State
Murray State
Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois
Stephan F Austin
Youngstown State
Western Illinois - if they can work into the HL.

That's a real good basketball conference.
It's a good enough football conference for what it would need to be.
It keeps football schools happy.
The basketball side should be happy with additions like Valpo, Murray State and SFA to the basketball side of things.
Murray State and SFA have baseball.
SFA half gives Missouri State a semi regional travel partner.


However, we know that Drake and Evansville will never go for that.

[UEACES80]

I appreciate the time and effort of your post and find a lot of credence in it but do you realize that Nacogdoches TX and Springfield, MO are 500 miles apart.

I live in the Houston area and SFA isn't even all that easy for us to get there.

[mvfcfan]

Thanks uniftw for explaining why we need to add NDSU and SDSU ASAP!!!

If the Summit League adds football then we are screwed. If we add NDSU and SDSU, who cares what happens to the Summit League or what the Summit League does? Even if we lost YSU, WIU, USD, and UND we would still have 7 teams in the conference at the very worst. I say realistically the worst case scenario would be 9 because I doubt YSU and WIU are going anywhere soon.

Really I think WIU and IPFW both end up in the Horizon League at some point very soon. (WIU joining the Horizon has no effect on them being in the MVFC.)

[uniftw]

Thanks uniftw for explaining why we need to add NDSU and SDSU ASAP!!!

If the Summit League adds football then we are screwed. If we add NDSU and SDSU, who cares what happens to the Summit League or what the Summit League does? Even if we lost YSU, WIU, USD, and UND we would still have 7 teams in the conference at the very worst. I say realistically the worst case scenario would be 9 because I doubt YSU and WIU are going anywhere soon.

Really I think WIU and IPFW both end up in the Horizon League at some point very soon. (WIU joining the Horizon has no effect on them being in the MVFC.)

What I showed is the MVFC doesn't need the Dakotas - or Summit.

Take SDSU, USD, NDSU out - remember, UND isn't a member for until 2020 and we are at 7 schools. Murray State joining is 8. We are only 1 off of the magic number - and that's where the conference making football a MVC sport comes into play and we can look at places like SFA (though I'm not sure about their long term stability), NMSU, etc...

The reality is, the Summit is screwed when it comes to football and they need us more than we need them. They don't have enough teams to start a league. 6 teams are needed for an autobid. Right now they have USD, SDSU, NDSU, WIU and we'll even put UND in there. That's only 5. They need football teams to join their conference to make it happen. You aren't going to run a league at 6 teams. That's 5-6 OOC games per year. That's impossible to schedule. The reality is 7 is minimum to make it work and 9 is ideal.

For Summit football to become a thing, many things have to happen. The NCAA needs to grant a waiver for it to be allowed. I'm not sure the NCAA would do so. The Summit has been on the NCAA's radar for conference instability for a decade now. They've had to get multiple waivers from the NCAA to keep their autobids in all sports due to falling under minimum teams playing the sport. They, if they lose another baseball school, are in danger of being within 2 years of the NCAA not giving them any autobids as it would knock the number of autosports bids, as a conference, under the minimum required to get autobids from the NCAA.

Let's look at realistic Summit League football options - remember this is no longer a 1 sport league like the MVFC. This is moving into the world of all sports conference

Existing football:
UND
NDSU
SDSU
USD
WIU

Existing non-football (I'm removing IPFW instantly as they are gone within 2 years)
UN-O
ORU
Denver

So you're at an 8 team conference that is still one team shy of a football autobid (if the NCAA grants it). You need at least 1 more school. 2 more gets you the perfect basketball set up. You need 4 more for the ideal football set up - which is what they would go for.

Likely targets: need 4 of them
Southern Utah
Northern Colorado
Weber State
Northern Arizona
Cal Poly
Eastern Illinois
Montana
Montana State
Idaho
Idaho State
New Mexico State

Of those these are the schools they have a realistic chance at landing:
Southern Utah
Northern Colorado
Weber State
Cal Poly - football only

EIU isn't going to join a conference with that foot print.
Montana/Montana State/Idaho/Idaho State/Northern Arizona aren't leaving the Big Sky. The first four of those are basically connected at the hip and won't be leaving. NAU loves to play tag along with them.
NMSU isn't giving up on the idea of FBS football.

That puts them at 8 football members and 11 total members. Ah, but then remember, WIU also isn't going to play in an all sports conference that ranges from Ogden UT to Salt Lake City to Fargo to Oklahoma

That puts them back at 10 members with 7 football members (it also likely keeps the MVFC at 8 members - WIU, UNI, SIU, ISUR, ISUB, MSU, MSU, YSU. 8 Isn't ideal but it can work.

That's assuming SUU, WSU and UNC want to leave the Big Sky Rivalries that they've built. Oh, it's also ignoring that UND just left the Big Sky (SUU, UNC, WSU, NAU, etc...) because that travel budget was crippling their university.


Summit League football needs so many things to happen that it simply won't - unless the MVC forces their hands and does the right thing moving forward - which won't happen.

[Mikovio]

It's why I hate the MVC - especially Drake, UE, Bradley and possibly Valpo's stance on football schools. They see it as nothing except a drain that holds ADs back - yet as we've shown many times it's the schools with that attitude killing the MVC the last decade.

Only 3 times in the last 10 years has a non-football team not won the Valley title, and not since 2011. Creighton and Wichita rode their success to greener pastures. If SIU wasn't spending money on football maybe they could buy out Barry. If Indiana State wasn't spending money on football maybe they could buy out Lansing. FCS football is a waste. If we're lucky maybe we'll go to Paris Texas! Yippee!

[uniftw]

It's why I hate the MVC - especially Drake, UE, Bradley and possibly Valpo's stance on football schools. They see it as nothing except a drain that holds ADs back - yet as we've shown many times it's the schools with that attitude killing the MVC the last decade.

Only 3 times in the last 10 years has a non-football team not won the Valley title, and not since 2011. Creighton and Wichita rode their success to greener pastures. If SIU wasn't spending money on football maybe they could buy out Barry. If Indiana State wasn't spending money on football maybe they could buy out Lansing. FCS football is a waste. If we're lucky maybe we'll go to Paris Texas! Yippee!

Let's make this relevant the MVC as it stands today

Only one team in the MVC has any NCAA wins in the last 9 seasons - it has football

Of the S16s that belong to the MVC over the last 15 years to teams currently in the MVC 2 of the 3 belong to football schools.

100% of the conference titles (regular season and conference tournament) over the last 10 years that remain in the conference belong to schools with football
The last time a true non-football did anything was 2006/2007.

Maybe Bradley and Evansville can take some of that $3 million they are spending on basketball and actually win a couple f__king games, or titles.

I can find the numbers I posted, but the last time a non-football/private school still in the valley finished in the top half of the all sports trophy standings was over a decade ago. The 4 private schools (excluding Valpo who just joined) finished outside of the bottom 4 was so long ago I couldn't pull numbers to calculate it anymore. The MVC didn't have standings that far back.

Maybe non-football/private schools should actually do something to "put us in our place".

Also funny to see an ISUr fan bashing FCS football - a sport which they spend more than anyone in except maybe Illinois State of the MVC schools.

[Redhawk]

It's why I hate the MVC - especially Drake, UE, Bradley and possibly Valpo's stance on football schools. They see it as nothing except a drain that holds ADs back - yet as we've shown many times it's the schools with that attitude killing the MVC the last decade.

Only 3 times in the last 10 years has a non-football team not won the Valley title, and not since 2011. Creighton and Wichita rode their success to greener pastures. If SIU wasn't spending money on football maybe they could buy out Barry. If Indiana State wasn't spending money on football maybe they could buy out Lansing. FCS football is a waste. If we're lucky maybe we'll go to Paris Texas! Yippee!

Only one team in the MVC has any NCAA wins in the last 9 seasons - it has football

Of the S16s that belong to the MVC over the last 15 years to teams currently in the MVC 2 of the 3 belong to football schools.

100% of the conference titles (regular season and conference tournament) over the last 10 years that remain in the conference belong to schools with football
The last time a true non-football did anything was 2006/2007.

Maybe Bradley and Evansville can take some of that $3 million they are spending on basketball and actually win a couple f__king games, or titles.

I can find the numbers I posted, but the last time a non-football/private school still in the valley finished in the top half of the all sports trophy standings was over a decade ago. The 4 private schools (excluding Valpo who just joined) finished outside of the bottom 4 was so long ago I couldn't pull numbers to calculate it anymore. The MVC didn't have standings that far back.

Maybe non-football/private schools should actually do something to "put us in our place".

Also funny to see an ISUr fan bashing FCS football - a sport which they spend more than anyone in except maybe Illinois State of the MVC schools.

Applaud all your comments uniftw...except one. Mikovio is a Bradley fan.

True ISUr fans support FCS and we actually loved going to Frisco, TX for the National Championship!

[Aargh]

If you want the MVC to expand, start campaigning with the Presidents of your schools to remove Elgin. He's on record as saying he prefers a 10-team league. He's had two opportunities to expand to 12 and didn't do it. He seems to prefer adding programs that are a reasonably comfortable bus ride from the existing membership.

[Mikovio]

Let's make this relevant the MVC as it stands today

Only one team in the MVC has any NCAA wins in the last 9 seasons - it has football

Of the S16s that belong to the MVC over the last 15 years to teams currently in the MVC 2 of the 3 belong to football schools.

100% of the conference titles (regular season and conference tournament) over the last 10 years that remain in the conference belong to schools with football
The last time a true non-football did anything was 2006/2007.

Maybe Bradley and Evansville can take some of that $3 million they are spending on basketball and actually win a couple f__king games, or titles.

Sure, if you ignore non-football CREIGHTON AND WICHITA STATE WHO WERE SO SUCCESSFUL THEY MOVED UP.

Sorry, I don't use all caps often, but this is such a Grand Canyon-sized hole in your argument I'm left with no choice. You can't just ignore that part of the last decade-plus when you're talking about how football affects Valley schools. If anything, IF those schools had football, it would have HELD THEM BACK from actually moving up the conference chain (again, sorry).

I can find the numbers I posted, but the last time a non-football/private school still in the valley finished in the top half of the all sports trophy standings was over a decade ago. The 4 private schools (excluding Valpo who just joined) finished outside of the bottom 4 was so long ago I couldn't pull numbers to calculate it anymore. The MVC didn't have standings that far back.

Public schools naturally have an advantage in partial-scholarship, Olympic sports because a $5k scholarship goes further at them. So if you're looking to build a powerhouse womens rowing conference, sure, kick out the privates. But that would be stupid because basketball pays the bills, and without the revenue sports you don't pay the bills with the non-revenues.

Maybe non-football/private schools should actually do something to "put us in our place".

See above.

Also funny to see an ISUr fan bashing FCS football - a sport which they spend more than anyone in except maybe Illinois State of the MVC schools.

I don't even.