MVC-MWC this week

[09grad]

Im not so sure the UE AFA game is as much of a lock as people think. Hopefully Jordan Jahr who Evansville pretty much stole from AFA will come to play and give the Aces some energy

[WSUbballer]

[quote="DUBulldog"]unless SDSU is a lot better than last season.[/quote]

They are.

[Little Eddie]

Considering how all of the teams have started thus far, I can't say that I feel all warm and fuzzy about the Valley's chances vs the MWC. Some of the weaker MWC teams have home games it seems (Wyo, CSU, and Air Force) which may cause issues...altitude could come into play at all 3 of these venues as well.

I'll go w/ Bluejay09Bear06 and say the Valley goes 3-6...not sure who will get the wins though.

[Snaggletooth]

Lets hope the experts are wrong, but it doesn't look like the MVC vs MWC is going to go well for the conference.

MVC (vs MWC) Probabilities of wins out of 9 games

0 - 2%
1 - 10%
2 - 27%
3 - 30%
4 - 22%
5 - 6%
6 - 3%
>6 - 0%

in otherwords there is 91% chance that MVC is going to lose this series this year. If the MVC could overachieve..... we can only dream.

Ordered from Most likely to win to less likely:

Bradley
Indy St
SIU
EU
UNI
CU
WSU
Drake

[Bluejay09Bear06]

A ZERO percent chance of winning more than 6 out of the 9 games? Certainly, the probability is low, but not zero. I do agree that a 3-6 record for the Valley is probably the most likely.

[WuDrWu]

A little worse now with Sam out for Bradley.

[RoyalShock]

I'm surprised the chance for zero wins is only 2%. I think I'd put it at 5-10%.

[Snaggletooth]

A ZERO percent chance of winning more than 6 out of the 9 games? Certainly, the probability is low, but not zero. I do agree that a 3-6 record for the Valley is probably the most likely.

sure If I expand the number of decimal points and number of simulations. For 1,000,000 simulations

0 = 2.1%
1 = 11.3%
2 = 24.5%
3 = 29.2%
4 = 20.8%
5 = 9.2%
6 = 2.5%
7 = 0.4%
8 = 0.035%
9 = 0.001%

does that make you feel any better?

[Snaggletooth]

I'm surprised the chance for zero wins is only 2%. I think I'd put it at 5-10%.

it might be with the Bradley losing another player.

[RoyalShock]

I'm surprised the chance for zero wins is only 2%. I think I'd put it at 5-10%.

it might be with the Bradley losing another player.

I forgot to factor that in. Make it 12%.