Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - 4th Place

[BuBrave2006]

I mean something like 12 wins in conference last year by 20 or more points! These aren't competitive games, at all.

Another 13 or so 10+ wins the year before, maybe only 2 or 3 out of 21 games inside 10 (most 20+) the year before.

My point is there are probably 10? or so returning Valley men's basketball players that have the smallest inkling what it's like to be competitive against WSU and none that haven't been hammered by the Shocks.

Two seasons ago, one of Bradley's worst teams in history lost to Wichita 62-59.

All of those dominating victories had two things in common...Fred and Ron. No one in the league is going to care how dominant Wichita has been over the last four years. Fred and Ron are gone and while you still have a very talented team, you don't have anyone that will "scare" the other team in preparation like Fred and Ron did. Guys like Fred, Ron, Tuttle, Odum, Kyle Weems, McDermott...guys that you know are going to show up and make life extremely difficult for you even on their bad days.

Will Wichita be good? Sure

Will they win the Valley? Obviously they have a good chance

Will teams care because they had 12 victories last year by 20+ points with two AA's that are gone now? Absolutely not

[WSUShox88]

People often forget that WSU was taking teams behind the woodshed before Ron and Fred set foot on campus. But so it goes, the cycle of hope continues year after year.

[BirdsEyeView]

My point is there are probably 10? or so returning Valley men's basketball players that have the smallest inkling what it's like to be competitive against WSU and none that haven't been hammered by the Shocks.

Without looking records up, I believe ISUr (returning 4 starters) and UNI (returning 3 starters - if count Carlson given the minutes he was playing) were very competitive the last 2-3 years against Wichita.

So, your statement is half accurate, but the problem is....the two teams closest in competition to Wichita maintained a decent chunk of players who have had success against Wichita when they had Baker and FVV....now those guys are gone, ours are not.

Recruiting is one thing....turning them into the next Baker, FVV, Early, Cotton, etc. is a whole different thing. Prospects flop all the time for one reason or another.

[Cdizzle]

I mean something like 12 wins in conference last year by 20 or more points! These aren't competitive games, at all.

Another 13 or so 10+ wins the year before, maybe only 2 or 3 out of 21 games inside 10 (most 20+) the year before.

My point is there are probably 10? or so returning Valley men's basketball players that have the smallest inkling what it's like to be competitive against WSU and none that haven't been hammered by the Shocks.

Two seasons ago, one of Bradley's worst teams in history lost to Wichita 62-59.

All of those dominating victories had two things in common...Fred and Ron. No one in the league is going to care how dominant Wichita has been over the last four years. Fred and Ron are gone and while you still have a very talented team, you don't have anyone that will "scare" the other team in preparation like Fred and Ron did. Guys like Fred, Ron, Tuttle, Odum, Kyle Weems, McDermott...guys that you know are going to show up and make life extremely difficult for you even on their bad days.

Will Wichita be good? Sure

Will they win the Valley? Obviously they have a good chance

Will teams care because they had 12 victories last year by 20+ points with two AA's that are gone now? Absolutely not

The point that there has been a large gap is valid. Whether people on other teams care or are scared because of it is irrelevant. Assuming that there is no one in line behind FVV and Baker is a risk. Everyone was equally sure WSU would falter when Early left. Or when Armstead and Hall left. Or when Murry and Stutz left. The 2013 WSU team did alright in league with FVV playing backup PG and no Ron Baker. The 2012 WSU team went 16-2 with a MoV of over 14 without either of those players.

I definitely think things will be closer this year than the past 3. But that doesn't mean the size of the gap wasn't a valid point. It seems many people are approaching this season thinking of only what their team gained and what WSU lost. Other teams also lost some of their top talent. And WSU under Marshall has a much better track record of replacing top talent than anyone. It's just possible that some of those guys could be pretty darn good.

Sometimes these arguments make me laugh. Because often the people that claim the castle will crumble because a player like FVV was so good and is gone are the same people who didn't think he should have won MVC PoY. They are the same people who in February of 2015 said "Tekele Cotton just isn't a 1st Teamer", in November of 2015 said "I told you they would suck without Tekele Cotton" and were no where to be found in February of 2016.

[Cdizzle]

Recruiting is one thing....turning them into the next Baker, FVV, Early, Cotton, etc. is a whole different thing. Prospects flop all the time for one reason or another.

The fact that you listed 4 players and then put an etc. says a lot about why there is a hole in your argument.

UNI has definitely had some success. And proven that they can reload, at the very least on a cadence. ISU has been a little less so (2-5), but has had the problem of spending all summer figuring out how to go 2-5 against WSU instead of figuring out how to go 6-0 against MSU and SIU. I would wager it is at least a big of a question if they can take that next step as is the question of Marshall reloading.

[BirdsEyeView]

Recruiting is one thing....turning them into the next Baker, FVV, Early, Cotton, etc. is a whole different thing. Prospects flop all the time for one reason or another.

The fact that you listed 4 players and then put an etc. says a lot about why there is a hole in your argument.

UNI has definitely had some success. And proven that they can reload, at the very least on a cadence. ISU has been a little less so (2-5), but has had the problem of spending all summer figuring out how to go 2-5 against WSU instead of figuring out how to go 6-0 against MSU and SIU. I would wager it is at least a big of a question if they can take that next step as is the question of Marshall reloading.

I get your points for sure, but there is an uncertainty for you unlike many other years. You lost Armstead, but FVV emerged in the NCAA tournament for you. Nobody has emerged behind those two guys unlike in years past at what I believe is the most important positions, ball handling guards.

McDuffie - yes
Morris - yes

Listen, you had by far the best recruiting class of anyone in the league and I still consider you guys favorites, but, WSU has more unknowns this year than it ever has in year's past. Those "etc." guys kept having known commodity replacements already in the program (minus Early - a stud JuCo get), but now you guys are counting your eggs on unknowns like Shamet who hasn't proven anything as a back up last year being hurt.

You have to agree there are more unknowns now than ever before. So, to his argument before, the teams who are returning players who are known to have some sort of success versus WSU are your biggest competition.

Totally agree on our record against the lessers of the Valley. That's the inconsistency of Dan Muller and why we can't fully trust him.

[Cdizzle]

There were WAY more unknowns going into 2012-2013 than there are this year. It will definitely be a change though.

[WSpringsBird]

In terms of proven talent 4th place is UNIs. 11 of 16 kids on the roster are new/never played in a D1 game.

The thing is, UNI has quite possibly the best X/O coach in the league.

MSU and ILSU, OTOH have 2 of the 4 worst coaches in the league....and that's saying something given the bottom of the barrel coaches in this league in places.

ISU may have the physical talent but they have the coaching talent, basketball IQ and emotional control of most junior high teams.

I would agree that Jacobson is a very good X/O coach--on offense, in particular. Muller's teams generally play very good defense. They do a nice job of pressuring the ball and are generally in the right position off the ball. I think that reflects Muller's strengths as a player--he was a much better defender than an offensive player. To move away from impressions to stats, ILSU was second in the MVC in defensive efficiency last year. Of course, WSU was first in the entire nation.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... efficiency

[WSpringsBird]

In terms of proven talent 4th place is UNIs. 11 of 16 kids on the roster are new/never played in a D1 game.

The thing is, UNI has quite possibly the best X/O coach in the league.

MSU and ILSU, OTOH have 2 of the 4 worst coaches in the league....and that's saying something given the bottom of the barrel coaches in this league in places.

ISU may have the physical talent but they have the coaching talent, basketball IQ and emotional control of most junior high teams.

I would agree that Jacobson is a very good X/O coach--on offense, in particular. Muller's teams generally play very good defense. They do a nice job of pressuring the ball and are generally in the right position off the ball. I think that reflects Muller's strengths as a player--he was a much better defender than an offensive player. To move away from impressions to stats, ILSU was second in the MVC in defensive efficiency last year. Of course, WSU was first in the entire nation.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... efficiency

Correction: Evansville was second, which surprises me, though I only saw them play a few times last year.

[Cdizzle]

I get your points for sure, but there is an uncertainty for you unlike many other years. You lost Armstead, but FVV emerged in the NCAA tournament for you. Nobody has emerged behind those two guys unlike in years past at what I believe is the most important positions, ball handling guards.

I am not really on the Frankamp train, but he has more experience and numbers generally on par or better than FVV did at that time. During his freshman season most of us saw FVV as a potential star. Many people saw Baker as a potential star during his redshirt year. I do not see Frankamp as a potential star. I do see Shamet that way, as well as McDuffie.

And, in my opinion, you give Morris too much credit. I am much more confident in Shamet (whom I've seen play 3 games) than I am in Shaq. I would say Morris is more of a gamble with regard to winning the league than Shamet.