Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - Champion

Discuss the MVC hoops season here.

Which team will win the MVC regular season championship?

Poll ended at October 19th, 2016, 2:33 pm

Illinois State
22
42%
Wichita State
31
58%
 
Total votes : 53

Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - Champion

Postby BirdsEyeView » October 18th, 2016, 11:07 am

Cdizzle wrote:
Wufan wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:FVV was your floor coach, intangibles guy and leader of the "Play Angry" mantra. Replacing that is not as easy as hand picking a recruit and labeling him the next superstar.


While this is certainly true, I fail to grasp what conclusion you are drawing from this tidbit. Please elaborate on what specifically this means to WSUs perceived success this season.

Agreed. This keeps getting thrown out as extremely relevant. Several people keep comparing incoming WSU players to FVV and Baker. Which is fine on it's own. But then to say "well, he isn't FVV so you aren't going to win the league" isn't fine on it's own. It would be ok if there was another FVV in the league, and/or if WSU had not been experiencing tremendous success in the league before FVV arrived, but neither of those are the case.


Sure, I will clarify.

I voted for WSU to win the league. I believe WSU wins the league this year.
However, some of your fan base has posted that it's nearly a foregone conclusion that you will win the league and are writing off the personnel losses (at least I've perceived this in the messages) of two AA's due to the recruiting class and Shamet. They look at the 4 game cushion you won the league with last year as evidence and think there is no chance somebody can close that gap.

I would argue that the 4 game cushion you won with....that the loss of FVV and Baker (+ glue guy Wessel) can nearly equal 4 games difference. Plus, you factor in a team like ISUr who only lost 1 starter last year...each player is a year older, smarter, more experienced, etc. and suddenly the gap has closed significantly.

Again, I still believe you win the league, but the gap has closed significantly and there are a lot more question marks, especially at point guard, for WSU than there has been in recent years.
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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - Champion

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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - Champion

Postby Cdizzle » October 18th, 2016, 12:13 pm

BirdsEyeView wrote:Sure, I will clarify.

I voted for WSU to win the league. I believe WSU wins the league this year.
However, some of your fan base has posted that it's nearly a foregone conclusion that you will win the league and are writing off the personnel losses (at least I've perceived this in the messages) of two AA's due to the recruiting class and Shamet. They look at the 4 game cushion you won the league with last year as evidence and think there is no chance somebody can close that gap.

I would argue that the 4 game cushion you won with....that the loss of FVV and Baker (+ glue guy Wessel) can nearly equal 4 games difference. Plus, you factor in a team like ISUr who only lost 1 starter last year...each player is a year older, smarter, more experienced, etc. and suddenly the gap has closed significantly.

Again, I still believe you win the league, but the gap has closed significantly and there are a lot more question marks, especially at point guard, for WSU than there has been in recent years.

I guess I haven't seen that many people writing off personnel losses or treating winning the league as a foregone conclusion. I think there have been several of us saying just because some guys who were 10s graduated doesn't mean they aren't being replaced by 7s or 8s. Which is as good as anyone else has. Now, that's a bit speculative, but so is any speculation by other fans that the replacements would be 4s or 5s (if you'll allow a crude 1-10 rating system). Only losing 1 starter can be a great thing, or a not so great thing. It's a great thing if you went 17-1 the previous year. It's maybe not such a great thing if you went 5-13 the previous year. If you're in the middle of that (the case for ISUr), I could see it being good or not good. And, once again, you list having players getting older, smarter, more experienced as if the entire WSU roster spent the summer roasting marshmallows.

I agree with you that the gap has closed, and we may be pretty much discussing semantics, but it's October so what the hell. Based on what I've seen: I think Lee will still be Lee (which may be the best PG in the league this year, though I wager by not a giant margin), I'm very bullish on McIntosh's development, but pretty bearish on the improvement on the rest of the core ISUr core guys. I may turn out to be all wet, but that's what I see. McIntosh is the one that took a big step forward last year. The other guys were still chuckers. I admittedly don't know much about what ISUr adds.

I have posted this before, but I think this year's winner will be more in the 13-15 win range, not the 16-18 win range we've seen . If that is the case it will definitely allow for a close race (and not just a 2-team race) where the middle of the pack will also have a big impact on the final standings.
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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - Champion

Postby Aargh » October 18th, 2016, 1:05 pm

I think WSU is going to have a Jekkyl/Hyde kind of year. Some nights you'll wonder how they could beat anybody and some nights you'll wonder how anybody could beat them.

One intangible that's important is the knowledge of what it takes to win and the fortitude to do whatever it takes to use that knowledge every night of a pretty long and busy season. Baker and VanVleet had that understanding and a "refuse to lose" mentality.

The current Shockers haven't really had to dig deep into their own skills and put out some extra effort (that maybe they didn't even know they had) when that's what has to happen to win a game. Maybe it's been a little too easy for the returning players. If the Shox have developed an entitlement mentality, they won't win the league.
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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - Champion

Postby Wufan » October 18th, 2016, 5:05 pm

Cdizzle wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:Sure, I will clarify.

I voted for WSU to win the league. I believe WSU wins the league this year.
However, some of your fan base has posted that it's nearly a foregone conclusion that you will win the league and are writing off the personnel losses (at least I've perceived this in the messages) of two AA's due to the recruiting class and Shamet. They look at the 4 game cushion you won the league with last year as evidence and think there is no chance somebody can close that gap.

I would argue that the 4 game cushion you won with....that the loss of FVV and Baker (+ glue guy Wessel) can nearly equal 4 games difference. Plus, you factor in a team like ISUr who only lost 1 starter last year...each player is a year older, smarter, more experienced, etc. and suddenly the gap has closed significantly.

Again, I still believe you win the league, but the gap has closed significantly and there are a lot more question marks, especially at point guard, for WSU than there has been in recent years.

I guess I haven't seen that many people writing off personnel losses or treating winning the league as a foregone conclusion. I think there have been several of us saying just because some guys who were 10s graduated doesn't mean they aren't being replaced by 7s or 8s. Which is as good as anyone else has. Now, that's a bit speculative, but so is any speculation by other fans that the replacements would be 4s or 5s (if you'll allow a crude 1-10 rating system). Only losing 1 starter can be a great thing, or a not so great thing. It's a great thing if you went 17-1 the previous year. It's maybe not such a great thing if you went 5-13 the previous year. If you're in the middle of that (the case for ISUr), I could see it being good or not good. And, once again, you list having players getting older, smarter, more experienced as if the entire WSU roster spent the summer roasting marshmallows.

I agree with you that the gap has closed, and we may be pretty much discussing semantics, but it's October so what the hell. Based on what I've seen: I think Lee will still be Lee (which may be the best PG in the league this year, though I wager by not a giant margin), I'm very bullish on McIntosh's development, but pretty bearish on the improvement on the rest of the core ISUr core guys. I may turn out to be all wet, but that's what I see. McIntosh is the one that took a big step forward last year. The other guys were still chuckers. I admittedly don't know much about what ISUr adds.

I have posted this before, but I think this year's winner will be more in the 13-15 win range, not the 16-18 win range we've seen . If that is the case it will definitely allow for a close race (and not just a 2-team race) where the middle of the pack will also have a big impact on the final standings.


This is almost exactly how I feel.

I've not noticed anyone that thinks WSU winning is a foregone conclusion or that believes that the next WSU PG believes that the player will be as good as Fred. I will say, however, that Fred was first team all-conference for three years. Before Fred, Mal Armstead was 2nd team All MVC. Before Armstead, Joe Ragland was first team All-MVC. Tours Murray was 2nd team All-Conference as the PG the year before that, and the year before that a Clevin Hannah was second team All-Conference. That's seven consecutive years where the WSU PG was one of the top 10 players in the league. This might be the year that changes.

Other team's players got better. That includes WSU.

WSU will probably win something less than 16 games which will put two or three other teams in a position to win the league.

I will add that, while I very much like the top four players at ISU; I'm not bullish on the returning role players or recruiting class. There was a good JUCO wing guard and the seven footer has some potential. One of the JUCO bigs should be serviceable. I think ISU will only go about 8 deep. Their eight will be good enough to beat UNI and WSU, but they might drop a few unexpectedly.
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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - Champion

Postby BEARZ77 » October 19th, 2016, 7:25 am

Aargh wrote:I think WSU is going to have a Jekkyl/Hyde kind of year. Some nights you'll wonder how they could beat anybody and some nights you'll wonder how anybody could beat them.

One intangible that's important is the knowledge of what it takes to win and the fortitude to do whatever it takes to use that knowledge every night of a pretty long and busy season. Baker and VanVleet had that understanding and a "refuse to lose" mentality.

The current Shockers haven't really had to dig deep into their own skills and put out some extra effort (that maybe they didn't even know they had) when that's what has to happen to win a game. Maybe it's been a little too easy for the returning players. If the Shox have developed an entitlement mentality, they won't win the league.


I agree with this perspective; the Shox are clearly still the prohibitive favorite and have the talent and depth to be as good as ever. But the type of guard play from an intangible standpoint that they got the last few years can be the difference between 16 wins and 13 wins very easily. Even in double digit wins there are those moments in games where making key decisions and plays determine the course of the game and FVV and Baker excelled in those moments. Talent alone doesn't make that happen; but it helps. I think the Shox will have nights where they look unbeatable because they have the talent and coaching to do so; but they may have a few more of those head scratching moments where they fail to seize control of a game they have in the past and that could be the difference in games being closer and then ultimately up for grabs.

I pretty much agree with how the voting has gone for this years standings. I think the Bears at 4 is both fair but also fragile, simply because of the Lusk factor. He just hasn't done much to inspire faith he can be consistent enough to win key games. However, I will also say I believe he has assembled the most talent other than WSU in the league heading into this year, as I believe we are deeper at positions 6-13 than the other 2-3 teams chasing the Shox. Players like Ruder and McCullough are after thoughts on this team and a guy like Church might not even start. Two players I think are vastly overlooked are Dixon and Johnson, as they may be the most complete players on the Bears roster. Dixon has really improved, is a 6'3 multi faceted swing guy who had a very respectable freshman year. Johnson may not put up huge scoring numbers but he's a 6'8/6'9 guy who rebounds very consistently and has perimeter skills in that he can get the rebound and lead the break on the dribble and make the pass to complete things. There just aren't many his size in our league with his skill set. These are two guys who will make plays behind the scenes and behind the guys like Kendrix and Miller and Rousseau. But again the Lusk factor keeps me and any Bears fan from feeling too confident we will be consistent enough to challenge at this point. I see us anywhere from 6th to 2nd and none of those would surprise me.
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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - Champion

Postby BirdsEyeView » October 19th, 2016, 8:05 am

Good point of view WuFan, CDizzle and Aargh.

Best of luck in the NonCon this season as we all root for each other to excel.
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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - Champion

Postby Cdizzle » February 27th, 2017, 2:49 pm

Everyone who voted in this poll was right.

The biggest takeaway from this thread was that most of us were expecting a little less from the top 2 and a little more from the middle of the pack.
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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - Champion

Postby bigdawg » March 2nd, 2017, 12:12 pm

Fans did a pretty good job overall picking 1-10. Switch Sycs and Loyola at spots 5&7 and it's almost exact.
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