Valley Game 4

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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby Redbirdgrad » January 9th, 2017, 2:34 pm

Yep. 25 years old. Thanks for confirmation!
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Re: Valley Game 4

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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby specialsauce » January 9th, 2017, 2:41 pm

When it's not going your way, you deflect pretty hard.
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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby MissouriValleyUnite » January 9th, 2017, 3:28 pm

You know the Fever/Redbirdgrad rivalry is iconic when it now spans 3 message boards.

Too bad Fever/Jamar will always be the ULTIMATE rivalry.
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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby Stickboy46 » January 9th, 2017, 3:31 pm

specialsauce wrote:
Can somebody also explain why WSU received Top 25 votes this week and Illinois State has yet to get sniffed? Surely, name recognition has nothing to do with the fact that a 90 RPI team is being voted for and a 47 RPI team isn't? :?


This is an EXTREMELY irrelevant data point as WSU got 2 points .. It was a single vote for 24th place by one person. It actually wasn't name recognition though. The guy posted his ballot online and listed the fact that WSU is KenPom 23 as to why he voted him them in.

http://www.app.com/story/sports/college ... /96334564/
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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby Rollbird5 » January 9th, 2017, 4:42 pm

MissouriValleyUnite wrote:You know the Fever/Redbirdgrad rivalry is iconic when it now spans 3 message boards.

Too bad Fever/Jamar will always be the ULTIMATE rivalry.


Might need their own thread after Saturday's game. Very entertaining read tho, keep it up boys :Cheers:
Chicago Cubs are the 2016 World Series Champions!

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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby specialsauce » January 9th, 2017, 4:48 pm

Stickboy46 wrote:
specialsauce wrote:
Can somebody also explain why WSU received Top 25 votes this week and Illinois State has yet to get sniffed? Surely, name recognition has nothing to do with the fact that a 90 RPI team is being voted for and a 47 RPI team isn't? :?


This is an EXTREMELY irrelevant data point as WSU got 2 points .. It was a single vote for 24th place by one person. It actually wasn't name recognition though. The guy posted his ballot online and listed the fact that WSU is KenPom 23 as to why he voted him them in.

http://www.app.com/story/sports/college ... /96334564/


It's not irrelevant with the point I was making. I said that WSU still gets looked upon favorably based on name recognition.

What's even more ironic is the reason that was given by the voter was based on KenPom, a system completely dismissed by retire12 er redbirdgrad. Kinda humorous.
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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby BirdsEyeView » January 9th, 2017, 5:16 pm

specialsauce wrote:
Stickboy46 wrote:
specialsauce wrote:
Can somebody also explain why WSU received Top 25 votes this week and Illinois State has yet to get sniffed? Surely, name recognition has nothing to do with the fact that a 90 RPI team is being voted for and a 47 RPI team isn't? :?


This is an EXTREMELY irrelevant data point as WSU got 2 points .. It was a single vote for 24th place by one person. It actually wasn't name recognition though. The guy posted his ballot online and listed the fact that WSU is KenPom 23 as to why he voted him them in.

http://www.app.com/story/sports/college ... /96334564/


It's not irrelevant with the point I was making. I said that WSU still gets looked upon favorably based on name recognition.

What's even more ironic is the reason that was given by the voter was based on KenPom, a system completely dismissed by retire12 er redbirdgrad. Kinda humorous.


Top 25 voters aren't on the selection committee. And, clearly only 1 voter used KenPom in determining their voting order for the top 25.

I don't think he is dismissing it, just downplaying its importance in the selection committee's criteria. It's impossible to know if they are using KenPom or not. I think they use whatever criteria makes each one of their arguments better for inclusion.

That is, "team X" has a crappy KenPom (so I'm going to ignore it), but they have great top 50 wins, so let's use that to include them, because I want them in.
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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby Stickboy46 » January 9th, 2017, 5:20 pm

BirdsEyeView wrote:
specialsauce wrote:
Stickboy46 wrote:This is an EXTREMELY irrelevant data point as WSU got 2 points .. It was a single vote for 24th place by one person. It actually wasn't name recognition though. The guy posted his ballot online and listed the fact that WSU is KenPom 23 as to why he voted him them in.

http://www.app.com/story/sports/college ... /96334564/


It's not irrelevant with the point I was making. I said that WSU still gets looked upon favorably based on name recognition.

What's even more ironic is the reason that was given by the voter was based on KenPom, a system completely dismissed by retire12 er redbirdgrad. Kinda humorous.


Top 25 voters aren't on the selection committee. And, clearly only 1 voter used KenPom in determining their voting order for the top 25.

I don't think he is dismissing it, just downplaying its importance in the selection committee's criteria. It's impossible to know if they are using KenPom or not. I think they use whatever criteria makes each one of their arguments better for inclusion.

That is, "team X" has a crappy KenPom (so I'm going to ignore it), but they have great top 50 wins, so let's use that to include them, because I want them in.

This... having great computer numbers can't hurt, but they will use different justifications for different teams. They always fall back on "the eye test" if they can't come up with a reason. They will put in the teams that they want.
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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby Wufan » January 9th, 2017, 6:46 pm

Redbirdgrad wrote:
Wufan wrote:Hypothetically, 16-2 puts both teams on the bubble, and they might take the loser in the finals. It's important that both teams finish with top 50 RPI. They won't take both teams as at-large IMao, even if they both finish 17-1.

While all of the above facts are true, one problem with rooting for the birds is that it is less likely that they will 16-2 than that Shockers will go 18-0. If you look at the MVC RPI, it is littered with teams (6 or 7) that have an RPI between 100-200. ISU is 8-3 against teams over 100, whereas WSU is 7-0.


But... that wasn't the original argument. If you'd like to concede that discussion, we can begin to then discuss this one.


What was the original argument? That we should root for ISU because they have the best resume? That we should root for ISU because they have the best chance? That we should root for ISU because neither team has a chance? Honest question...help me understand.
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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby specialsauce » January 9th, 2017, 7:04 pm

BirdsEyeView wrote:
Top 25 voters aren't on the selection committee. And, clearly only 1 voter used KenPom in determining their voting order for the top 25.

I don't think he is dismissing it, just downplaying its importance in the selection committee's criteria. It's impossible to know if they are using KenPom or not. I think they use whatever criteria makes each one of their arguments better for inclusion.

That is, "team X" has a crappy KenPom (so I'm going to ignore it), but they have great top 50 wins, so let's use that to include them, because I want them in.


I know Top 25 voters aren't on the committee but I was pointing out the "perception" thing.

He was dismissing it. Again, I agree with you there are a ton of metrics/analytics/rankings used to determine selection. And there's the human element as well. When he lined up strictly RPI resumes and acted like that was the end of the discussion, that's where the problems arose. He pointed out 1 aspect. There's also other aspects. Regardless of it all, neither one is getting an at-large bid and arguing which NIT resume is better is just semantics and bitterness at this point.
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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby specialsauce » January 9th, 2017, 7:04 pm

Wufan wrote:What was the original argument? That we should root for ISU because they have the best resume? That we should root for ISU because they have the best chance? That we should root for ISU because neither team has a chance? Honest question...help me understand.


Good luck getting a straight answer, if you get an answer at all.
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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby Redbirdgrad » January 9th, 2017, 8:30 pm

Wufan wrote:What was the original argument? That we should root for ISU because they have the best resume? That we should root for ISU because they have the best chance? That we should root for ISU because neither team has a chance? Honest question...help me understand.


Yeah man, no worries. A little of A and B.

The original proposed argument was which team the MVC should root for to go 18-0 in league play and lose in the Championship game, which would give the MVC the best shot we currently have at 2 teams.

The position I took was that because of ISU's resume (using RPI data only in original analysis), ISU has the better shot when looking at both scenarios (ISU running the table, and then WSU running the table separately). When analyzing that way, according to data given by other posters as well, ISU had the better RPI numbers at the end of the year using RPIforecast.com. Thus, the better chance at an at-large.

Several level headed board members brought up other rankings such as Sagarin, Massey, etc. which currently have Wichita 20 or 30 spots ahead of ISU, and I've conceded the point that those rankings do favor Wichita currently. But my counterpoints were that 1. Those rankings aren't used as much as RPI when discussing who should get in, who's left out, etc. and 2. Sagarin isn't even a traditional ranking as much as it is a predictor. I then cited the website.

Lots of good back and forth input between myself and few others on the topic, and I've even conceded that it's moot because neither team is deserving of an at large this year due to resumes. At this point in time however, I still honestly believe ISU's is better after listing every win and loss both teams have had.

That should catch you up in a nutshell. I love the discussion with several on here about this topic, and it's a fun group think since neither scenario can happen concurrently. But when you throw in Championz... it devolves into what you've read in the past few pages.
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