Valley Game 4

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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby Redbirdgrad » January 9th, 2017, 8:41 pm

specialsauce wrote:You are not a good poster. Your thin-skinned nature and huge bias keeps you from holding intelligent conversation.

Please show me references to where this "thin-skinned nature" has come into play. If you mean that I'm refuting your statement with my own arguments, then yes... I'll continue to do so. There have been many intelligent conversations between myself and other posters in the past, but the unintelligent ones have historically come with you as the common denominator.

specialsauce wrote:It really is interesting that a guy who posts players advanced metrics twice a week on his own board is so adamant about opposing KenPom metrics on his own team. Oh, that's right. It kills his biased argument.

Great! Glad to have a fan over there. Keep reading! And then please tell the class the difference between analyzing individual statistics among your own team with like competition (for the slow... they've all played against the same teams), and team statistics among those with different competitions using various different methods (again, for the slow... they've all played different teams). I'll wait for you to catch up. Let me know if you need to stay after class.

specialsauce wrote:You need to buy mirrors for your apartment buddy. There obviously aren't enough around because you make hypocritical statements A LOT. Again, look into one once in a while.

Show me ONE hypocritical statement.

specialsauce wrote:Rally the troops? What's da matter? You mad bro? lol.

Your latest arguments have come from the minds of other posters on shockernet. You're not even trying anymore. But no... not mad at all. Quite happy with how things are playing out over here.

specialsauce wrote:So, you can't explain the Top 25 votes? Instead of explaining it, you just called a poster a name, which of course is another one of your hypocritical moves.

Your own fans had to explain this one to you. Now I'm just embarrassed FOR you.

specialsauce wrote:When it's not going your way, you deflect pretty hard.

Not sure you understand what "not going your way" means...
But if you'd like me to point out deflecting to the KING of deflecting, feel free to ask and I'll cite your references.
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Re: Valley Game 4

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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby Wufan » January 9th, 2017, 8:59 pm

Redbirdgrad wrote:
Wufan wrote:What was the original argument? That we should root for ISU because they have the best resume? That we should root for ISU because they have the best chance? That we should root for ISU because neither team has a chance? Honest question...help me understand.


Yeah man, no worries. A little of A and B.

The original proposed argument was which team the MVC should root for to go 18-0 in league play and lose in the Championship game, which would give the MVC the best shot we currently have at 2 teams.

The position I took was that because of ISU's resume (using RPI data only in original analysis), ISU has the better shot when looking at both scenarios (ISU running the table, and then WSU running the table separately). When analyzing that way, according to data given by other posters as well, ISU had the better RPI numbers at the end of the year using RPIforecast.com. Thus, the better chance at an at-large.

Several level headed board members brought up other rankings such as Sagarin, Massey, etc. which currently have Wichita 20 or 30 spots ahead of ISU, and I've conceded the point that those rankings do favor Wichita currently. But my counterpoints were that 1. Those rankings aren't used as much as RPI when discussing who should get in, who's left out, etc. and 2. Sagarin isn't even a traditional ranking as much as it is a predictor. I then cited the website.

Lots of good back and forth input between myself and few others on the topic, and I've even conceded that it's moot because neither team is deserving of an at large this year due to resumes. At this point in time however, I still honestly believe ISU's is better after listing every win and loss both teams have had.

That should catch you up in a nutshell. I love the discussion with several on here about this topic, and it's a fun group think since neither scenario can happen concurrently. But when you throw in Championz... it devolves into what you've read in the past few pages.


Thanks! My counterpoint was that, although ISUr still has the hypothetical best possible finish, WSU has the better shot of running the table (based on rpiforecast and other advanced metrics). If the end goal is to get an at large, at this early time, WSU would be the "smart money" if rooting for a team other than your own. The more games that go by without a loss, the less rooting for WSU makes sense.

Honestly, both teams have the "opportunity" to earn an at-large with 17 wins (RPI of 40 for WSU and 36 for ISUr with 2 losses). That's a lot of wins! WSU has averaged 17 wins in conference per season for the past three years, and are listed as a 50% probability to win 17 or more this year. Who knows?

Bottom line: both teams have an opportunity to earn an at large, but it's slim! Pick a horse you hate less, and ride em till they lose!
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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby specialsauce » January 9th, 2017, 9:00 pm

Wow... I'm at a loss. You're invested in this way more than you should be. The thin skin strikes again.

If you truly believe I'm 25 (which I'm not), then why is a 40-50? year old so enthralled by a message board poster 25 years less mature than him on a message board, going back and forth for paragraphs upon paragraphs, even til the wee hours of the morning, all just to say "I told you so" and to get the last word?

Hypocrite doesn't even begin to describe the great retire12.
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Re: Valley Game 4

Postby Redbirdgrad » January 9th, 2017, 9:07 pm

Wufan wrote:Thanks! My counterpoint was that, although ISUr still has the hypothetical best possible finish, WSU has the better shot of running the table (based on rpiforecast and other advanced metrics). If the end goal is to get an at large, at this early time, WSU would be the "smart money" if rooting for a team other than your own. The more games that go by without a loss, the less rooting for WSU makes sense.

Honestly, both teams have the "opportunity" to earn an at-large with 17 wins (RPI of 40 for WSU and 36 for ISUr with 2 losses). That's a lot of wins! WSU has averaged 17 wins in conference per season for the past three years, and are listed as a 50% probability to win 17 or more this year. Who knows?

Bottom line: both teams have an opportunity to earn an at large, but it's slim! Pick a horse you hate less, and ride em till they lose!


Got it! And you may very well be right in the fact the WSU has the best chance to run the table. That's absolutely up for debate and to be determined. WSU has a better home court advantage than ISU so I'd give you the edge to 2-0 our series over us doing the same to you. We've also been known to lay an egg once in while (which is why the SIU game scares the crap out of me!).

Yeah, the whole convo was IF a team was to go 18-0, which one would you want, so that part of the equation was a given in our discussions, but I absolutely see your point.

Good luck this week!
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