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specialsauce wrote:

Redbird Recon wrote:

specialsauce wrote:How many Top 50 wins does Illinois State have?

RPI 0
Ken Pom 1

Not enough.

Wichita has 0 top 50 wins and 0 top 100 wins and is still in the last four in today on Joe Lunardi's Bracketology.

Bracketology link - http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology
Wichita page - http://insider.espn.com/mens-college-ba ... eamId/2724


So, clearly Lunardi thinks 0 top 100 wins still gets Wichita in (per RPI standards)

BirdsEyeView wrote:Wichita has 0 top 50 wins and 0 top 100 wins and is still in the last four in today on Joe Lunardi's Bracketology.

Bracketology link - http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology
Wichita page - http://insider.espn.com/mens-college-ba ... eamId/2724


So, clearly Lunardi thinks 0 top 100 wins still gets Wichita in (per RPI standards)

Lunardi also thought WSU was getting a 7 seed last year. I prefer his methods because he doesn't rely heavily on the RPI. Unfortunately, the same can't be said of the committee.

When was the last mid-major to receive an at-large without a Top 50 win? Has there ever?

specialsauce wrote:

BirdsEyeView wrote:Wichita has 0 top 50 wins and 0 top 100 wins and is still in the last four in today on Joe Lunardi's Bracketology.

Bracketology link - http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology
Wichita page - http://insider.espn.com/mens-college-ba ... eamId/2724


So, clearly Lunardi thinks 0 top 100 wins still gets Wichita in (per RPI standards)

Lunardi also thought WSU was getting a 7 seed last year. I prefer his methods because he doesn't rely heavily on the RPI. Unfortunately, the same can't be said of the committee.

When was the last mid-major to receive an at-large without a Top 50 win? Has there ever?

Yeah, I'm not saying take his ranking as gospel, but putting you in the conversation WITHOUT a top 100 RPI win is encouraging from Shocker point of view.

Lunardi's job got a lot harder this year now that they are supposedly using multiple metrics. Before he simply had to look at RPI with top 50/100 wins to estimate who was in.

This will always be a moving target based on what the needs of certain elite conferences and teams are in order to get it. This year look for special compensation considerations for teams like Duke and Michigan State if they falter. A few late season wins in conference or league tourneys will be used to override less than stellar otherwise resumes with injuries and Coach K being out used to overlook actual results. You often hear the goal of "getting the best 64 [+4] teams " regardless of record, but that was never the initial goal else wise why would the lower level conferences even be considered. The goal was to reward the 64 teams who had earned the right thru objective criteria [ ie w/l and conference standings] with a chance to play in the NCAA tourney, recognizing that was not always going to be the best teams subjectively. But every year we move further away from that being the goal and criteria used; to me it's ludicrous that a regular season Champion should ever be denied a spot in the NCAA tourney or that a team finishing below the upper half of whatever league they're in get an at large. The Champion should have the right to prove whether they belong while the latter has already shown why they don't . Getting hot for 3-4 games doesn't alter those regular season performances. JMO

20-1 in MVC play would be in.

specialsauce wrote:

BirdsEyeView wrote:Wichita has 0 top 50 wins and 0 top 100 wins and is still in the last four in today on Joe Lunardi's Bracketology.

Bracketology link - http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology
Wichita page - http://insider.espn.com/mens-college-ba ... eamId/2724


So, clearly Lunardi thinks 0 top 100 wins still gets Wichita in (per RPI standards)

Lunardi also thought WSU was getting a 7 seed last year. I prefer his methods because he doesn't rely heavily on the RPI. Unfortunately, the same can't be said of the committee.

When was the last mid-major to receive an at-large without a Top 50 win? Has there ever?

I don't think there has been a mid major get in without a top 50 but WSU is to the point where they are viewed differently than other mid majors based on their performance over the last decade. I think it's certainly possible you get in without taking st Louis.

The Shox did their best to schedule up OOC. It's too bad so many of your OOC opponents tanked. Like OK State and Oklahoma.

BirdsEyeView wrote:
Wichita has 0 top 50 wins and 0 top 100 wins and is still in the last four in today on Joe Lunardi's Bracketology.

Bracketology link - http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology
Wichita page - http://insider.espn.com/mens-college-ba ... eamId/2724


So, clearly Lunardi thinks 0 top 100 wins still gets Wichita in (per RPI standards)

Assuming the Redbirds finish 18-0 and the Shockers finish 16-2, that would give them 2 top 50 RPI wins.

glm38 wrote:
I don't think there has been a mid major get in without a top 50 but WSU is to the point where they are viewed differently than other mid majors based on their performance over the last decade. I think it's certainly possible you get in without taking st Louis.

The Shox did their best to schedule up OOC. It's too bad so many of your OOC opponents tanked. Like OK State and Oklahoma.

glm, you're correct that if there's any mid-major right now that would get preferential treatment... it would be Wichita.

I just think they shot themselves in the foot in the non-con by not winning a single important game when they had the chance. They had a few, and lost all, including one at home to Oklahoma State, who will finish bottom half of the Big 12.

The committee doesn't care about how you TRIED to schedule, they care about what that final SOS number is... and like ISU'S... it's too poor to be an at-large.

Looking back through recent history... these teams all missed out on the dance.

St. Mary's (2015-2016) - 26-5, 38 RPI, 148 SOS
St. Bonaventure (2015-2016) - 22-8, 30 RPI, 81 SOS
Colorado State (2014-2015) - 26-6, 29 RPI, 111 SOS
Southern Miss (2013-2014) - 25-6, 34 RPI, 132 SOS


Why cherry pick these teams? They've all got decent RPI's with bad SOS's. Good win totals (except for St. Bonaventure, but they had a better SOS), and none got in. There's at least 1 example of this a year.

According to RPIforecast, ISU currently has a projection of 36.3 RPI, 123 SOS. That would lump them in this group without any good wins on the resume.

If ISU runs the table? Projected at 27-5, 23 RPI, 111 SOS. Better RPI than the above, but the same general grouping. Still, no good wins on the resume. Missouri State carries the torch with a 21 RPI to not get in... ISU just needs to continue to play well and focus on St. Louis. That's the best hope any Valley team has right now.

BirdsEyeView wrote:Lunardi's job got a lot harder this year now that they are supposedly using multiple metrics. Before he simply had to look at RPI with top 50/100 wins to estimate who was in.

Sagarin, Pomeroy, and a few others are simply meeting with a few of the NCAA big wigs to discuss the inclusion of more metrics / analytics in the selection and seeding process.

They aren't using multiple metrics this year. 2017-2018 is the earliest they could.