MVCfans.com

Looking back through recent history... these teams all missed out on the dance.

St. Mary's (2015-2016) - 26-5, 38 RPI, 148 SOS
St. Bonaventure (2015-2016) - 22-8, 30 RPI, 81 SOS
Colorado State (2014-2015) - 26-6, 29 RPI, 111 SOS
Southern Miss (2013-2014) - 25-6, 34 RPI, 132 SOS


Why cherry pick these teams? They've all got decent RPI's with bad SOS's. Good win totals (except for St. Bonaventure, but they had a better SOS), and none got in. There's at least 1 example of this a year.

According to RPIforecast, ISU currently has a projection of 36.3 RPI, 123 SOS. That would lump them in this group without any good wins on the resume.

If ISU runs the table? Projected at 27-5, 23 RPI, 111 SOS. Better RPI than the above, but the same general grouping. Still, no good wins on the resume. Missouri State carries the torch with a 21 RPI to not get in... ISU just needs to continue to play well and focus on St. Louis. That's the best hope any Valley team has right now.

BirdsEyeView wrote:Lunardi's job got a lot harder this year now that they are supposedly using multiple metrics. Before he simply had to look at RPI with top 50/100 wins to estimate who was in.

Sagarin, Pomeroy, and a few others are simply meeting with a few of the NCAA big wigs to discuss the inclusion of more metrics / analytics in the selection and seeding process.

They aren't using multiple metrics this year. 2017-2018 is the earliest they could.

cpacmel wrote:

BirdsEyeView wrote:Lunardi's job got a lot harder this year now that they are supposedly using multiple metrics. Before he simply had to look at RPI with top 50/100 wins to estimate who was in.

Sagarin, Pomeroy, and a few others are simply meeting with a few of the NCAA big wigs to discuss the inclusion of more metrics / analytics in the selection and seeding process.

They aren't using multiple metrics this year. 2017-2018 is the earliest they could.

Where did you read it would start using it next year at the earliest? It's not hard to implement it now. The ratings are all readily available..

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18468008/ncaa-tournament-officials-meet-analytics-experts-consider-creating-new-metric

According to an article posted on NCAA.com on Friday, Dan Gavitt, the NCAA's senior vice president of basketball, and Jim Schaus, Ohio's athletic director and a member of the NCAA tournament selection committee, will meet with Jeff Sagarin (Sagarin), Kevin Pauga (KPI), Ken Pomeroy (KenPom.com) and Ben Alamar (ESPN's BPI) to discuss the selection process and consider a new measuring stick.

The new metric could be implemented into the official selection process as early as the 2017-18 season.

And it's not like selection committee members don't have access to things like KenPom, Sagarin, L.R.M.C., B.P.I., K.P.I. etc, already. BECAUSE THEY DO. And some of them already do use them in making their selections. Each committee member is free to use whatever ranking / rating he wants to. On Friday when Jerry Palm and Pomeroy and others meet it is to try to include a new metric that might replace the RPI. They also want other metrics to be included on team sheets. Right now the data that is on the official team sheets all comes from RPI.

Redbirdgrad wrote:Looking back through recent history... these teams all missed out on the dance.

St. Mary's (2015-2016) - 26-5, 38 RPI, 148 SOS
St. Bonaventure (2015-2016) - 22-8, 30 RPI, 81 SOS
Colorado State (2014-2015) - 26-6, 29 RPI, 111 SOS
Southern Miss (2013-2014) - 25-6, 34 RPI, 132 SOS


Why cherry pick these teams? They've all got decent RPI's with bad SOS's. Good win totals (except for St. Bonaventure, but they had a better SOS), and none got in. There's at least 1 example of this a year.

According to RPIforecast, ISU currently has a projection of 36.3 RPI, 123 SOS. That would lump them in this group without any good wins on the resume.

If ISU runs the table? Projected at 27-5, 23 RPI, 111 SOS. Better RPI than the above, but the same general grouping. Still, no good wins on the resume. Missouri State carries the torch with a 21 RPI to not get in... ISU just needs to continue to play well and focus on St. Louis. That's the best hope any Valley team has right now.

This is true, except that ISU would have two top 50 wins against WSU.

Wufan wrote:

Redbirdgrad wrote:Looking back through recent history... these teams all missed out on the dance.

St. Mary's (2015-2016) - 26-5, 38 RPI, 148 SOS
St. Bonaventure (2015-2016) - 22-8, 30 RPI, 81 SOS
Colorado State (2014-2015) - 26-6, 29 RPI, 111 SOS
Southern Miss (2013-2014) - 25-6, 34 RPI, 132 SOS


Why cherry pick these teams? They've all got decent RPI's with bad SOS's. Good win totals (except for St. Bonaventure, but they had a better SOS), and none got in. There's at least 1 example of this a year.

According to RPIforecast, ISU currently has a projection of 36.3 RPI, 123 SOS. That would lump them in this group without any good wins on the resume.

If ISU runs the table? Projected at 27-5, 23 RPI, 111 SOS. Better RPI than the above, but the same general grouping. Still, no good wins on the resume. Missouri State carries the torch with a 21 RPI to not get in... ISU just needs to continue to play well and focus on St. Louis. That's the best hope any Valley team has right now.

This is true, except that ISU would have two top 50 wins against WSU.

Are you basing your top 50 RPI ranking for WSU as by season's end with the RPI forecast?

cpacmel wrote:http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18468008/ncaa-tournament-officials-meet-analytics-experts-consider-creating-new-metric

According to an article posted on NCAA.com on Friday, Dan Gavitt, the NCAA's senior vice president of basketball, and Jim Schaus, Ohio's athletic director and a member of the NCAA tournament selection committee, will meet with Jeff Sagarin (Sagarin), Kevin Pauga (KPI), Ken Pomeroy (KenPom.com) and Ben Alamar (ESPN's BPI) to discuss the selection process and consider a new measuring stick.

The new metric could be implemented into the official selection process as early as the 2017-18 season.

And it's not like selection committee members don't have access to things like KenPom, Sagarin, L.R.M.C., B.P.I., K.P.I. etc, already. BECAUSE THEY DO. And some of them already do use them in making their selections. Each committee member is free to use whatever ranking / rating he wants to. On Friday when Jerry Palm and Pomeroy and others meet it is to try to include a new metric that might replace the RPI. They also want other metrics to be included on team sheets. Right now the data that is on the official team sheets all comes from RPI.

Thanks.

Wufan wrote:

Redbirdgrad wrote:Looking back through recent history... these teams all missed out on the dance.

St. Mary's (2015-2016) - 26-5, 38 RPI, 148 SOS
St. Bonaventure (2015-2016) - 22-8, 30 RPI, 81 SOS
Colorado State (2014-2015) - 26-6, 29 RPI, 111 SOS
Southern Miss (2013-2014) - 25-6, 34 RPI, 132 SOS


Why cherry pick these teams? They've all got decent RPI's with bad SOS's. Good win totals (except for St. Bonaventure, but they had a better SOS), and none got in. There's at least 1 example of this a year.

According to RPIforecast, ISU currently has a projection of 36.3 RPI, 123 SOS. That would lump them in this group without any good wins on the resume.

If ISU runs the table? Projected at 27-5, 23 RPI, 111 SOS. Better RPI than the above, but the same general grouping. Still, no good wins on the resume. Missouri State carries the torch with a 21 RPI to not get in... ISU just needs to continue to play well and focus on St. Louis. That's the best hope any Valley team has right now.

This is true, except that ISU would have two top 50 wins against WSU.

Unless WSU falls out(very unlikely but needs to be considered)

I'm pretty excited and think the Redbirds have a very good team, but any talk of going 18 - 0 is not rational yet. Conference road wins are tough to come by...and I don't just mean at Wichita. I plan to just keep enjoying each game, track any at-large potential, maybe talk some shizzle when warranted and look forward to another great time in St. Louis.

I think the 18-0 talk is just centering around RPI discussion and at large bids. I don't think anyone actually expects the Birds to run the table.