2017 Bracketology

[Cdizzle]

You do not want to push it back a week, although I get the idea. The recency effect hurts our at large team's chances as we don't play for a week. The eye test gets forgetful as the committee starts to watch the Power 5 teams that went 7-11 in conference have a randomly decent conference tourney just to sneak into the field. Very frustrating.

Why not? Why play a compressed schedule compared to other teams in the country? You say we shouldn't do it, but then agree with my points.

Only due to CBS visibility for the finals. That's why I said no. If we can keep that game on the schedule the following weekend...then absolutely!

Do you think that's helping? Maybe you do. I don't. No one is going to watch a thriling OT WSU-ISU final and say "yep, I want both of those teams in the tourney." But somebody might watch a UNI-ISU final and say "no way am I putting ISU in, they just got blitzed by 30."

I just don't see where there is any upside.

[Redbirdfan21]

I understand why they say they do it this way. But the TV time/money isn't helping. I can't believe we couldn't break even on that by having another week to schedule regular season games around TV times. And if TV is going to cut away from the championship game cause the league has no balls anyway....

Also having your Valley 'bubble' team sit around for a week while Syracuse gets to 18 wins is killing at-large chances/seeds.

It won't happen for awhile - the current ESPN contract runs through 2024. I haven't been able to find the $$ with the deal, but I don't see how you can say the money would be better adding a bye week in the middle of the season. I doubt the money moving to the next weekend would be better.

Now, if you want to claim some schools do nothing with their TV money *cough* Evansville *cough* then that's another issue.

What does the ESPN contract have to do with it? All the MVC tourney games are on Fox Sports and the final on CBS.

If I understand it correctly, ESPN owns the right to all of Arch Madness and contracts it out/sells it to FSMW and CBS.

[Stickboy46]

There are quite a few negatives to playing the next weekend too.

1. Conflicts with major conference tourney. Not just TV time, and Money but exposure also. If there is a major conference tournament on at the same time as the MVC tourney, I bet you can guess which channel the Selection committee will have on. Keep in mind that at that point the Committee will have already started meeting.

2. It would have to be a Wednesday through Saturday. The major conference tourneys that end on Sunday seem to rarely affect seeding. This would probably eliminate a bid from the MVC in the case of an upset. If there was a bubble team that was projected in as of Sunday, then lost, they most likely will just kick that MVC team and replace them with the new winner. With a week to review the resume, they are more likely to find a place to fit a 2nd team, than with a couple hours to go.

3. Recency bias works both ways. A loss by a potential 2nd bid in the MVC tourney will be extremely fresh if done 2 days before rather than a week. Yet again, giving them time to look at the whole resume is better for the MVC more often than not.

[squirrel]

Optics is a big part of it, sure...at the same time though, I think the layoff benefited Bradley in 2006.

They had a dismal second half in the championship game...one that hardly demonstrated they were a tournament team. I don't think too many Bradley fans had realistic aspirations at that point.

But, they opened the season short-handed against DePaul, and won at All State Arena.

Syrcause, who was not a tournament team at that time, lost 108-69 to DePaul in the second-to-last regular season Big East game. But then 2 weeks later, they shocked everyone and won the Big East Tournament.

I don't think Bradley gets in the 2006 tournament without that convergence of events.

[Red]

There's a real possibility that ISUr goes undefeated in league play and loses to WSU in the championship in St Louis. The proverbial shoe being on the other foot and we get 2 teams in once again. Two victories over WSU might be enough to elevate ISUr into an 8-9 seed. Not ideal for WSU but I could see this happening.

I don't give us a snowball's chance to go undefeated. It's too hard and we aren't that good frankly.

[Cdizzle]

There's a real possibility that ISUr goes undefeated in league play and loses to WSU in the championship in St Louis. The proverbial shoe being on the other foot and we get 2 teams in once again. Two victories over WSU might be enough to elevate ISUr into an 8-9 seed. Not ideal for WSU but I could see this happening.

I don't give us a snowball's chance to go undefeated. It's too hard and we aren't that good frankly.

I think the game at WSU will be a tough one. Otherwise, from what I've seen, I'm beginning to wonder. WSU hasn't played MSU or SIU yet, so I haven't seen them more than a little. But I don't think ISUr is losing to anyone else. Defense travels, and ISU seems to have figured that out.

I've long been a fan of kenPom's ratings, and ISU's AdjD of 9 this far into the season is very impressive. I'd take anyone with an AdjD in the top 20 to win a LOT of games in this league.

[BirdsEyeView]

There's a real possibility that ISUr goes undefeated in league play and loses to WSU in the championship in St Louis. The proverbial shoe being on the other foot and we get 2 teams in once again. Two victories over WSU might be enough to elevate ISUr into an 8-9 seed. Not ideal for WSU but I could see this happening.

I don't give us a snowball's chance to go undefeated. It's too hard and we aren't that good frankly.

I think the game at WSU will be a tough one. Otherwise, from what I've seen, I'm beginning to wonder. WSU hasn't played MSU or SIU yet, so I haven't seen them more than a little. But I don't think ISUr is losing to anyone else. Defense travels, and ISU seems to have figured that out.

I've long been a fan of kenPom's ratings, and ISU's AdjD of 9 this far into the season is very impressive. I'd take anyone with an AdjD in the top 20 to win a LOT of games in this league.

Nice post Cdizzle. I didn't realize how high we were on AdjD. That's great. Saturday night's game is a prime example of what a good defense can do. We lose that game last year without a doubt. Our offense was piss poor. Paris Lee had like 5 turnovers and was non-existent scoring the ball. Yet, you look at the scoreboard with 2-3 minutes left and we are up 18 to a much improved Drake team.

I see losses @ WSU, @ MSU (maybe)

[Redbirdgrad]

I think the game at WSU will be a tough one. Otherwise, from what I've seen, I'm beginning to wonder. WSU hasn't played MSU or SIU yet, so I haven't seen them more than a little. But I don't think ISUr is losing to anyone else. Defense travels, and ISU seems to have figured that out.

I've long been a fan of kenPom's ratings, and ISU's AdjD of 9 this far into the season is very impressive. I'd take anyone with an AdjD in the top 20 to win a LOT of games in this league.

Hit the nail on the head here. The defense so far has prevented other teams from going on any type of run when our offense is struggling. Because of this, even when we get behind it's only by a bucket or two early. We typically can catch up after that.

I think the Birds lose in Wichita because that'll be the first really proactive crowd the team has faced this year. They just haven't been in that environment yet. They have the team that can win in Wichita, but I'm not so sure they can put it together for a full 40 over there.

Other than that, surely there's another one on the schedule that could trip them up. At Missouri State is one you could point at, but anytime you travel in the Valley you have to be prepared. Look at Wichita... head and shoulders better than Evansville, but found themselves down big early. It just happens. It's college basketball.

16-2 looks like a decent projection right now for the Birds.

[shockem]

How many times has a team gone undefeated in this league? Stating it's a "real possibility" for any team to do so is quite a stretch, especially only 8 games in, and especially for a team that's been inconsistent, at best, over the course of their lifetime in this conference.

Here's why I said it's a real possibility:

1. The Redbirds are very good this year. The game against WSU wasn't even close. I don't care how they've done historically, they are good this year. Just ask Drake, every dog has its day.

2. WSU has lost every game against the best teams this year. They haven't yet proven they can beat a really good team, regardless of the lopsided wins.

3. The rest of the conference pretty much sucks. There's a big gap between WSU/IL State and the rest of the league. Both IL State and WSU should win their remaining games. Anything can happen, but if they stay focused, it all comes down to the game in Wichita. I can see Loyola, maybe MSU, possibly stealing a game, but not anyone else.

[TheObserver]

How many times has a team gone undefeated in this league? Stating it's a "real possibility" for any team to do so is quite a stretch, especially only 8 games in, and especially for a team that's been inconsistent, at best, over the course of their lifetime in this conference.

The last 3 occurrences were all in the "epic" category:

2014-15 Shockers
1985-86 Braves
1978-79 Sycamores

Thanks. I believe it was the 2013-14 Shockers though.

Regardless, that's 3 seasons in what? Over a half-century? At least in the modern era? And you're right. Each of those teams were National players. It could happen but to say it's a "real possibility" is a big stretch at this stage in the game. I mean hell, Illinois State was down big early at home to Drake, and then fought with them back and forth until late in the game. I personally don't believe Illinois State is in the same class as the teams you mentioned.