If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Discuss the MVC hoops season here.

Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby musiccitybulldog » January 11th, 2018, 3:55 pm

This week Joe Lunardi has the Bulldogs 15 seed playing Wichita State 2 seed in Dallas. Now that would be a fun location and game.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology
musiccitybulldog
All MVC
All MVC
 
Posts: 834
Joined: August 4th, 2010, 2:53 pm

Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Sponsor

Sponsor
 

Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby RoyalShock » January 11th, 2018, 3:57 pm

I tracked attendance of WSU's MVC road games during the 35-1 season. What I found was a nearly 50% increase (I think the actual number was 48%) for those games over an average MVC game. The following years, the increase was still pronounced. IIRC it was in the 35-40% range. So I think it is reasonable to say that the attendance (and thereby, revenue) at MVC venues other than Koch Arena was negatively affected by WSU's departure.

I admit to being one who predicted the Valley would drop a couple of spots in conference rankings. I clearly wasn't expecting the bottom of the conference to significantly improve their RPIs. Even so, the improvement hasn't helped anyone's at-large chances this season. But if the lower half can hold on to their recent gains and not fall into the 200+ RPI abyss it could give one or two of the top teams a better chance in coming years to capitalize on a solid non-conference performance.
User avatar
RoyalShock
MVCfans.com
MVCfans.com
 
Posts: 578
Joined: August 5th, 2010, 12:22 pm

Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby Play Angry » January 11th, 2018, 3:58 pm

musiccitybulldog wrote:This week Joe Lunardi has the Bulldogs 15 seed playing Wichita State 2 seed in Dallas. Now that would be a fun location and game.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology


:Cheers:

I tried the Emmenecker Challenge at Jethro's not too long ago and fell woefully short. Hopefully the Shockers would fair better against the Bulldogs.
Play Angry
All MVC
All MVC
 
Posts: 803
Joined: October 17th, 2013, 12:06 pm

Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby BirdsEyeView » January 11th, 2018, 4:30 pm

Play Angry wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:
musiccitybulldog wrote:I saw a 3D movie, "House Of Wax" down town Peoria at some cool old theater, then went to the Bradley game.
Now who is it that is concerned about these numbers?


Just an ever-changing topic from Shocker fans to prove how bad the MVC is without them. Gotta keep moving the needle until something lands. Some people are giving in to their posts.

These attendance concerns are not ours....only the athletic administrations at each school.


Play Angry wrote:(I would create a separate thread for this but expect some might react negatively and view it as an attack of some sort). If someone else wants to copy the data and discuss in an independent thread, be my guest:


:roll:

No pleasing some folks I suppose. I thought the relevant post was fair and avoided inflammatory generalizations (such as "Shocker fans...<insert derogatory remark>" which seem to be commonplace in recent pages).

In addition to the failed assertion by the one Shocker fan who steadfastly argued the MVC could slip to 16th, there are some fantastic factual faceplants by fans of another school ITT which were corrected in entertaining fashion. Should we all revisit those as well?

Let me know and I'll be happy to dig those up.


Honestly, skimmed the text and only read the numbers in your messages. So apologies to you specifically.

As far as digging up past messages...Sure re-visiting terrible predictions is always fun. If anyone is ever on Twitter, follow "Freezing Cold Takes" which is predicated off this idea. Very funny.
BirdsEyeView
MVC Hall Of Famer
MVC Hall Of Famer
 
Posts: 1330
Joined: February 28th, 2014, 12:51 pm

Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby musiccitybulldog » January 11th, 2018, 4:35 pm

Play Angry wrote:
musiccitybulldog wrote:This week Joe Lunardi has the Bulldogs 15 seed playing Wichita State 2 seed in Dallas. Now that would be a fun location and game.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology


:Cheers:

I tried the Emmenecker Challenge at Jethro's not too long ago and fell woefully short. Hopefully the Shockers would fair better against the Bulldogs.


It's hard to beat Jethro's as a good place to eat. The Bulldogs are playing much better this year, although ran into a buzzsaw at Valpo last night. At one point in the first half Valpo was just shy of 80% from three.
It would be great to have a game like Lunardi's forecast in Dallas, I hope it could happen. Fun time.
musiccitybulldog
All MVC
All MVC
 
Posts: 834
Joined: August 4th, 2010, 2:53 pm

Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby MissouriValleyUnite » January 11th, 2018, 4:57 pm

Play Angry,

I don’t see the attendance trend you note ever reversing. That’s the future and here to stay.

Attendance outside the major 7 leagues (P5+BE+AAC) is generally not good. There are major programs in midmajor leagues like Gonzaga, Dayton, and Saint Louis who have great attendance outside the M7 but again they’re M7 programs in a mid-major league. So the only true mid-majors killing it are probably GCU, VCU, and few MW schools.

I just don’t think attendance is all that important as long as you keep it top 10. A10’s gotten many non-Dayton/SLU bids for many years and their attendance is in-line with the MVC. If GW, LaSalle, RI, St Bonaventure, etc. can get recent bids with their attendance, nothing’s stopping MVC schools from stepping up too.

Expecting Dayton/SLU-like attendance is unrealistic. But I’d expect/hope Bradley (once a consistent winner) can match VCU’s and MVC 2-12 to match/exceed A10 4-14.

tl;dr
If MVC attendance is in-line with A10 attendance, it’s fine. If it dips out of the top 10, it’s trouble. I think it sticks top 10 even with this year’s dip.
User avatar
MissouriValleyUnite
MVC starter
MVC starter
 
Posts: 329
Joined: February 10th, 2014, 9:59 am

Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby Play Angry » January 11th, 2018, 4:59 pm

BirdsEyeView wrote:
Play Angry wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:
Just an ever-changing topic from Shocker fans to prove how bad the MVC is without them. Gotta keep moving the needle until something lands. Some people are giving in to their posts.

These attendance concerns are not ours....only the athletic administrations at each school.


Play Angry wrote:(I would create a separate thread for this but expect some might react negatively and view it as an attack of some sort). If someone else wants to copy the data and discuss in an independent thread, be my guest:


:roll:

No pleasing some folks I suppose. I thought the relevant post was fair and avoided inflammatory generalizations (such as "Shocker fans...<insert derogatory remark>" which seem to be commonplace in recent pages).

In addition to the failed assertion by the one Shocker fan who steadfastly argued the MVC could slip to 16th, there are some fantastic factual faceplants by fans of another school ITT which were corrected in entertaining fashion. Should we all revisit those as well?

Let me know and I'll be happy to dig those up.


Honestly, skimmed the text and only read the numbers in your messages. So apologies to you specifically.

As far as digging up past messages...Sure re-visiting terrible predictions is always fun. If anyone is ever on Twitter, follow "Freezing Cold Takes" which is predicated off this idea. Very funny.


:Cheers:

musiccitybulldog wrote:
Play Angry wrote:
musiccitybulldog wrote:This week Joe Lunardi has the Bulldogs 15 seed playing Wichita State 2 seed in Dallas. Now that would be a fun location and game.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology


:Cheers:

I tried the Emmenecker Challenge at Jethro's not too long ago and fell woefully short. Hopefully the Shockers would fair better against the Bulldogs.


It's hard to beat Jethro's as a good place to eat. The Bulldogs are playing much better this year, although ran into a buzzsaw at Valpo last night. At one point in the first half Valpo was just shy of 80% from three.
It would be great to have a game like Lunardi's forecast in Dallas, I hope it could happen. Fun time.


It was delicious for sure - they were telling us that some skinny gal evidently holds the challenge record (finishing all 5 pounds in less than 5 minutes or something like that - unreal).

DU/WSU in the opening salvo would be a blast. I love what Medved is doing for you guys - small world too, he was neighbors with one of our fam members when he was an asst. at CSU. Nothing but nice things to say about him as a person.
Play Angry
All MVC
All MVC
 
Posts: 803
Joined: October 17th, 2013, 12:06 pm

Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby Play Angry » January 11th, 2018, 5:54 pm

MissouriValleyUnite wrote:Play Angry,

I don’t see the attendance trend you note ever reversing. That’s the future and here to stay.

Attendance outside the major 7 leagues (P5+BE+AAC) is generally not good. There are major programs in midmajor leagues like Gonzaga, Dayton, and Saint Louis who have great attendance outside the M7 but again they’re M7 programs in a mid-major league. So the only true mid-majors killing it are probably GCU, VCU, and few MW schools.

I just don’t think attendance is all that important as long as you keep it top 10. A10’s gotten many non-Dayton/SLU bids for many years and their attendance is in-line with the MVC. If GW, LaSalle, RI, St Bonaventure, etc. can get recent bids with their attendance, nothing’s stopping MVC schools from stepping up too.

Expecting Dayton/SLU-like attendance is unrealistic. But I’d expect/hope Bradley (once a consistent winner) can match VCU’s and MVC 2-12 to match/exceed A10 4-14.

tl;dr
If MVC attendance is in-line with A10 attendance, it’s fine. If it dips out of the top 10, it’s trouble. I think it sticks top 10 even with this year’s dip.


I agree that attendance is not a necessary condition to success, although I think it plays a role in sustaining success once achieved (revenues, coaching salaries, recruiting, etc. are integrally tied to fan support and attendance). Many of the programs in the MVC regularly averaged 7-8k+ for lengthy periods not that long ago - rekindling that fan support would go a long way toward achieving the kind of renaissance the league experienced in the late 90s/early 00s. This would certainly require substantial commitment at the institutional level for member schools.

The landscape now is certainly different than it was 20+ years ago and, if engineered correctly, the MVC could use its fan support as an effective mechanism to separate itself from many of its mid-major peers. Unlike most other leagues outside of the M7 (other than maybe the MWC, A10, and parts of the WCC and MAC), the foundation, facilities and prior history is in place for most of the MVC.

In some ways, separation is much easier to achieve now than it was the past. Below is the conference by conference attendance standings for the top 20 leagues in 1992-93:

1 - Big Ten - 12,728
2 - Big East - 10,914
3 - Big Eight - 10,677
4 - Great Midwest - 10,653
5 - SEC - 10,626
6 - ACC - 10,548
7 - WAC - 8,907
8 - Metro - 6,991
9 - Pac Ten - 6,760
10 - MCC - 6,429
11- MVC - 6,247
12 - Big West - 5,469
13 - SWC - 5,247
14 - A-10 - 5,054
15 - Big Sky - 5,015
16 - Colonial - 4,373
17 - Sun Belt - 4,089
18 - MAC - 3,981
19 - OVC - 3,652
20 - MCC - 3,486

Keep in mind this was at a time when WSU and CU were spiraling in the shitter. CU averaged 3,462 fans that season (seriously) and WSU drew 7,779. The support from the balance of the MVC was relatively strong back then, and the following seasons witnessed major institutional investments in basketball as a wave of young, quality coaches carried the league back to multi-bid relevance.

Now, here is a breakdown of the Top 20 leagues in attendance in 2016-17:

1 - Big Ten - 12,235
2 - ACC - 11,257
3 - SEC - 11,080
4 - Big 12 - 10,427
5 - Big East - 10,014
6 - Pac 12 - 8,170
7 - MWC - 6,456
8 - AAC - 5,744
9 - MVC - 5,010
10 - A-10 - 4,731
11 - WCC - 3,946
12 - CUSA - 3,609
13 - WAC - 2,969
14 - MAC - 2,885
15 - Horizon - 2,723
16 - Colonial - 2,455
17 - Big West - 2,362
18 - Southern - 2,357
19 - Summit - 2,310
20 - Sun Belt - 2,128

The strength of support for the Top 6-7 leagues has been pretty consistent for decades. However, the bottom has really fallen out for leagues below the Top 10, as they were generally pillaged of their most well-resourced members in the mid 90s, mid 00s and mid 10s. The MVC's relative stability despite the departure of WSU and CU is an exception to this rule vis a vis other mid-major conferences, and with renewed investment in their programs the league could readily achieve separation from the A-10/WCC/MAC/CUSA/WAC tier in terms of support, with a long term goal of receiving regular multiple bids to the Dance.

Reversing the trend, however, will likely be expensive and involve turning over the present coaching staff at most members (and obviously hiring successful up and comers as happened for many in the mid to late 90s). Presently, Jake is the only MVC coach who has assembled a team which would have received an at-large bid. The other coaches are 0 for a combined 69 at the D1 level. Obviously, relatively new hires like Wardle, Medved and Lottich must be given time, but does anyone believe the rest (other than Jacobsen) are the long term answer at their respective institution? Housecleaning is in order for many schools, and the need is relatively pressing in light of attendance trendlines. Resources for buyouts and hires will only be harder to amass as attendance continues to dwindle, so there is no time like the present - we are also a decade into the present economic recovery and rest assured that current returns for university endowments will not continue forever.

I loved Drake's and Bradley's recent hires and am hopeful other members will follow suit in short order.
Play Angry
All MVC
All MVC
 
Posts: 803
Joined: October 17th, 2013, 12:06 pm

Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby Majik45 » January 12th, 2018, 9:11 am

Bradley is another reason these numbers are way down for the MVC. If you go back 10 years ago around the sweet 16 run, Bradley consistently averaged over 9,000 fans a game for probably 10-15 years. Once Bradley started to slide attendance numbers started to drop, but even 5 years ago in the middle of the Geno Ford era, we still averaged 6,500 fans. People are starting to come back some this year, but with a combined total of 18 wins the previous 2 years, it's very hard to get people back. If Bradley can get back to contending for the league title, I think you could see attendance numbers push up toward 8,000 a game.

Unfortunately, I don't think you will ever get back to the 9,000 a game or more numbers anymore which is sad. I remember many great games where Carver was sold out and very loud when playing Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan, and even Illinois State.
Majik45
MVC Role Player
MVC Role Player
 
Posts: 164
Joined: March 2nd, 2011, 4:07 pm

Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby pafan » January 12th, 2018, 9:27 am

MissouriValleyUnite wrote:Play Angry,

I don’t see the attendance trend you note ever reversing. That’s the future and here to stay.


I agree. In 1998, an ESPN survey found that 54% of NFL fans would prefer to be at the game than watching from their sofa. In 2012, that number had fallen to 29%. I suspect the same thing has happened in college basketball - a combination of more games on TV, and HD.

I don't honestly think schools like Evansville or ISUb or SIU will ever again sell out their arenas on a regular basis, no matter how much winning they do. Combination of declining interest in sports attendance, and the lack of work for the college-educated graduates of these institutions in the cities where the universities are. Fewer local alumni = fewer basketball attendees, especially over a 10 year time line.
Owner - PurpleAcesFans.com
User avatar
pafan
MVC Valued Member
MVC Valued Member
 
Posts: 1541
Joined: August 10th, 2010, 9:03 am
Location: Ford Center

Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby BCPanther » January 12th, 2018, 9:40 am

There were a ton of UNI fans, myself included, that thought we built the McLeod Center way too small at the time. We had just come off averaging over 8k for the league season the last year in the Dome and were worried that the 7000 seats (before they put suites on the West side) was never going to be enough.

12 years later, its the perfect size. Still looks decently full and gets loud when we've got 4000 in there and is still big enough for commencement and some decent shows and concerts (WWE, Brad Paisley, Justin Moore, Manheim Steamroller, Bob Dylan, Luke Bryan before he got huge, Meat Loaf, Alan Jackson)
BCPanther
All MVC
All MVC
 
Posts: 856
Joined: August 8th, 2010, 9:10 am

Previous

Return to Missouri Valley Conference Basketball

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Rambler63 and 13 guests