If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

[Redbirdgrad]

Even though you play a team twice a year, it has a very minute impact on the final RPI of a team. Take a look at the bottom of any team on RPIforecast.com and you'll see the impact each individual team has on another. It's pretty small. So pulling a Wichita out of your schedule twice a year isn't a huge deal as long as you don't replace it with a 300 level team.

My point is that you aren't merely pulling WSU (or Creighton) out of 2 games on your schedule. You're also pulling them out of 2 games for 8 other teams you play twice on your schedule, plus at least one more in St. Louis. It directly effects either your opponents' record or your opponents'-opponents' record for 19 games each year. That can add up. I'm not arguing your conclusions. Just curious on the math you've used. It can be done, but it takes more than just running some averages.

Your example is poor, comparing Drake and Evansville, and perhaps even illustrates my point.

Drake has been consistently sucky for 8 years, and you can notice the contrast between pre and post Creighton.

Evansville was an emprically better team over more recent years, so the difference in numbers is negated by their own team improvement.

Drake was a more constant level of team, and the impact of the loss is noticeable in their numbers.

Going to have quite a few responses as I'm just now able to take a look at this. The spreadsheet I did this on is at my office though, so I'll have to answer anything specific tomorrow.

Regarding Drake and Evansville, I just grabbed two of the teams in the conference. I wasn't singling them out other than to work through examples of how those teams fared. What you're seeing with Evansville though is that internal growth of a team or program can negate the loss of a conference member. For Evansville, they were able to do it. For Drake, like you said, they weren't. This shows both sides adequately and you can still reach the conclusions we've all made.

[Redbirdgrad]

Going to address this in 2 parts. Both good points.

This is good stuff, and I think it illustrates the point well, but cdizzle is correct that your numbers are flawed because each team would not have played WSU and will therefore not be as good as you project. Again, I doubt if you went to the extraordinary work of simulating games against replacement level teams each season, that the outcome would be different.

Thanks for taking a look at it and the kind words. The numbers are overly simplistic to reach a rudimentary point that was the crux of an argument in another thread. Would the Valley fall to 16th as a result of Wichita leaving. The answer was a resounding no, which was all this analysis was proving. I'm glad others have dove deeper because it's an interesting discussion regardless of conference affiliation.

To your point, yes, each team will drop due to the "opponents record" and "opponents opponents record" part of the RPI. If you look at the "future weight" of any conference team according to rpiforecast.com, you can see that any 1 conference member is associated with roughly 4.42% of a team's RPI. Thus, Wichita's influence on ISU's RPI is 4.42%. It's slightly more when you look at opponents opponent's record in conference play, so let's use 5% as a guideline. What we really need to do is go in and remove 5% of Wichita's record, and their opponents records from all 8 years and we'll be closer to being right on the money, but even without this analysis we're within 5% of the intended result anyway, and even closer once you add in the replacement team. So yes, you're correct that you can get closer than my simplistic overview did, but the result is the same. The MVC isn't dropping too far (if at all) once Wichita leaves. But again, that's more due to the current state of the 13th-16th conferences than what the Valley has going on.

The second point I'd like to make is that the original argument was "if WSU left the conference would drop to 16". With that statement, Royalshocks questions are still legitimately at play. Would the loss of the current "marquee" program hurt the overall brand of the MVC such that the rank dropped further than the numbers by themselves would indicate? Honestly, too much conjecture here to come up with a reasonable explanation, but much better to ponder than to dismiss as off topic.

This is a tough one. The MVC has survived many name schools leaving, and it's still been able to right the ship. Would this be another example in that line, or would this be the straw that broke the camel's back? It's insanely hard to quantify this though as the replacement team comes into play, as does the ability of the other conference members to improve their athletic prowess within the current structure. Difficult one to tackle, but I don't see the MVC dropping below some of those below us, even with a loss of Wichita... do you? Success is cyclical. Without Wichita, maybe Northern Iowa or ISU runs 18-0 in conference, is able to recruit better, and becomes the next Wichita within 5 years. Then, you're not losing Wichita's numbers because UNI or ISU took it's place... so you just have to find a replacement for their average RPI instead of finding the one for WSU like we originally thought. It's a fun discussion, but not one that you can put a number on.

[Redbirdgrad]

Exactly. It's all speculation. That's why nobody is wrong in their opinions. redbirdgrad is very much underselling a WSU loss in the conference. Regardless, nobody knows who would be added. Nobody knows how the teams would line up. Nobody knows how the RPIs would compute. The only thing we do know is that a consistent Top 30 program with traditionally high RPIs would be leaving the conference. It would hurt.

Your opinion of a drop from 12 to 16 was never quantified or backed with any facts. I tried to do the homework for you here and you're brushing it off because it's not working out for you. There would be an expected an obvious dip, but the leagues behind us are so bad, it would take one of the 300+ RPI teams to be the replacement for us to lose much ground.

And I'm not underselling anything. Losing Wichita would be a blow to the conference because you're the current big dog. Nobody is disputing that. But throwing data out the window because it doesn't back your statement is asinine.

[TheAsianSensation]

What'cha got there, numbers?

Well done. There does need to be a caveat thrown in - we'd stay 12th in most reasonable situations, but there's a difference between being 12th and capable of producing an at-large bid, and 12th and NOT capable of producing an at-large bid.

We keep the same ranking, but the ranking won't have the same meaning.

That said, generally speaking, we avoid the doomsday scenario, and there's room for rebuild.

[Redbirdgrad]

Interesting discussion.

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Spot on Play Angry. I didn't quote the whole thing because there's nothing to add.

Great analysis.

[Redbirdgrad]

What'cha got there, numbers?

Well done. There does need to be a caveat thrown in - we'd stay 12th in most reasonable situations, but there's a difference between being 12th and capable of producing an at-large bid, and 12th and NOT capable of producing an at-large bid.

We keep the same ranking, but the ranking won't have the same meaning.

That said, generally speaking, we avoid the doomsday scenario, and there's room for rebuild.

Absolutely. The biggest issue is we become the automatic one bid conference before heading into the season, unless teams outside of Wichita improve.

The conference RPI rank doesn't take a hit, but the conference "street cred" absolutely does.

[TheAsianSensation]

I think everyone agrees there's a Big 11 in college basketball:

The power 6 (B1G, $EC, BEast, Pac-12, Big 12, ACC)
Mountain West
American
A-10
WCC
MVC

And everyone else is a tier behind.

Let's look at the conference RPI for every conference outside the Big 11, in the past several years:

2016-17:
CAA 11
Sun Belt 13
SoCon 14
MAAC 15
MAC 16
Summit 17
Horizon 18
WAC 19

2015-16:
CAA 9
MAC 10
Summit 12
Ivy 15
Big West 16
Sun Belt 17
Horizon 18
SoCon 19

2014-15:
MAC 12
CUSA 13
Horizon 14
CAA 15
MAAC 16
Ivy 17
Summit 18
Sun Belt 19

2013-14:
MAC 12
CUSA 13
Horizon 14
CAA 15
MAAC 16
Ivy 17
Summit 18
Sun Belt 19

2012-13:
CUSA 11
Horizon 12
WAC 13
MAAC 14
Sun Belt 15
OVC 16
MAC 17
Patriot 18

Main takeaways:
1) Go home 2015-16 rankings, you're drunk.
2) Notice how no one can hold onto the top. This year it's the Colonial, but 5 years ago they were in massive disrepair with the same lineup of teams (realignment had just gotten them). MAC has a couple years near the top, and a couple years trapped around 16-17. CUSA has receded for obvious reasons. Horizon was up there 5 years ago and have slipped to 18th. Summit peaked last year but fell back. This year, it's the Fun Belt and SoCon taking their turns near the top.
3) If you believe the MVC will fall back signifcantly, you believe the MVC would fall into this tier. And when you're in this tier, that doesn't mean you just stay 13th or 14th every year. You oscillate down and up, back and forth between 12th and 20th.
4) This is why the MVC will be steady even if WSU goes bye. We're steady enough that we'll never dip to 18th or 20th like all these other conferences in this tier. Yes, we did go to 14th last year, but....I can't emphasize how wonky that year was in the CRPI. If you took the MVC's average ranking in these years, they dwarf every conference outside the top 11. That would lessen without Wichita, but we have a big head start.
5) I might be wrong about the Colonial, they might make the Big 11 a Big 12....but they need an at-large bid first.

[BirdsEyeView]

So, obviously the statistical data isn't perfect, but it does negate the original argument by a Shocker poster that we would drop from RPI 12 to RPI 16 as a conference with the loss of Wichita State.

However, unless somebody emerges (hopefully ISUr) as a regular contender for an at large, yes we will be considered a 1 bid league going forward.

[BirdsEyeView]

If WSU left, RPI is the least of any Valley team's worries that is aspiring to get an at large bid. A bigger issue, where being in the Valley has hurt WSU the last two year, is that it removes two games from the schedule against a team that (at least for now and into the foreseeable future) that can help give a team some of the good wins needed to get an at large. If you are a Valley team and something goes wrong with your nonconference schedule (ie an injury to a key player during the nonconference or opponents performing below what would have been expected), and all of a sudden you are looking at needing to win Arch Madness to go to the NCAA tournament.

100% agree in the league's current state.

Can SIU get back to it's mid 2000's glory days?
ISUr is trending up every year since Muller arrived in terms of final standings in the league, can it continue? Loyola and MSU is recruiting well (coaching holding them back a bit)
UNI - Always in the mix
Bradley on a 5 year plan to regain respectability.
Some schools like ISUb are a recruit or two away (look at what Odum did to that program for 4 years).

Marginal improvement from each. Get a few in the top 100 RPI every year and better league wins can be had to improve NCAA resumes

[Wufan]

If WSU left, RPI is the least of any Valley team's worries that is aspiring to get an at large bid. A bigger issue, where being in the Valley has hurt WSU the last two year, is that it removes two games from the schedule against a team that (at least for now and into the foreseeable future) that can help give a team some of the good wins needed to get an at large. If you are a Valley team and something goes wrong with your nonconference schedule (ie an injury to a key player during the nonconference or opponents performing below what would have been expected), and all of a sudden you are looking at needing to win Arch Madness to go to the NCAA tournament.

100% agree in the league's current state.

Can SIU get back to it's mid 2000's glory days?
ISUr is trending up every year since Muller arrived in terms of final standings in the league, can it continue? Loyola and MSU is recruiting well (coaching holding them back a bit)
UNI - Always in the mix
Bradley on a 5 year plan to regain respectability.
Some schools like ISUb are a recruit or two away (look at what Odum did to that program for 4 years).

Marginal improvement from each. Get a few in the top 100 RPI every year and better league wins can be had to improve NCAA resumes

This should be the plan regardless of any realignment.