If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

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Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby Redbirdgrad » January 25th, 2017, 10:42 pm

Play Angry wrote:Interesting discussion.

.


Spot on Play Angry. I didn't quote the whole thing because there's nothing to add.

Great analysis.
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Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

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Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby Redbirdgrad » January 25th, 2017, 10:45 pm

TheAsianSensation wrote:What'cha got there, numbers?

Well done. There does need to be a caveat thrown in - we'd stay 12th in most reasonable situations, but there's a difference between being 12th and capable of producing an at-large bid, and 12th and NOT capable of producing an at-large bid.

We keep the same ranking, but the ranking won't have the same meaning.

That said, generally speaking, we avoid the doomsday scenario, and there's room for rebuild.


Absolutely. The biggest issue is we become the automatic one bid conference before heading into the season, unless teams outside of Wichita improve.

The conference RPI rank doesn't take a hit, but the conference "street cred" absolutely does.
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Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby TheAsianSensation » January 25th, 2017, 11:03 pm

I think everyone agrees there's a Big 11 in college basketball:

The power 6 (B1G, $EC, BEast, Pac-12, Big 12, ACC)
Mountain West
American
A-10
WCC
MVC

And everyone else is a tier behind.

Let's look at the conference RPI for every conference outside the Big 11, in the past several years:

2016-17:
CAA 11
Sun Belt 13
SoCon 14
MAAC 15
MAC 16
Summit 17
Horizon 18
WAC 19

2015-16:
CAA 9
MAC 10
Summit 12
Ivy 15
Big West 16
Sun Belt 17
Horizon 18
SoCon 19

2014-15:
MAC 12
CUSA 13
Horizon 14
CAA 15
MAAC 16
Ivy 17
Summit 18
Sun Belt 19

2013-14:
MAC 12
CUSA 13
Horizon 14
CAA 15
MAAC 16
Ivy 17
Summit 18
Sun Belt 19

2012-13:
CUSA 11
Horizon 12
WAC 13
MAAC 14
Sun Belt 15
OVC 16
MAC 17
Patriot 18

Main takeaways:
1) Go home 2015-16 rankings, you're drunk.
2) Notice how no one can hold onto the top. This year it's the Colonial, but 5 years ago they were in massive disrepair with the same lineup of teams (realignment had just gotten them). MAC has a couple years near the top, and a couple years trapped around 16-17. CUSA has receded for obvious reasons. Horizon was up there 5 years ago and have slipped to 18th. Summit peaked last year but fell back. This year, it's the Fun Belt and SoCon taking their turns near the top.
3) If you believe the MVC will fall back signifcantly, you believe the MVC would fall into this tier. And when you're in this tier, that doesn't mean you just stay 13th or 14th every year. You oscillate down and up, back and forth between 12th and 20th.
4) This is why the MVC will be steady even if WSU goes bye. We're steady enough that we'll never dip to 18th or 20th like all these other conferences in this tier. Yes, we did go to 14th last year, but....I can't emphasize how wonky that year was in the CRPI. If you took the MVC's average ranking in these years, they dwarf every conference outside the top 11. That would lessen without Wichita, but we have a big head start.
5) I might be wrong about the Colonial, they might make the Big 11 a Big 12....but they need an at-large bid first.
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Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby BirdsEyeView » January 26th, 2017, 9:03 am

So, obviously the statistical data isn't perfect, but it does negate the original argument by a Shocker poster that we would drop from RPI 12 to RPI 16 as a conference with the loss of Wichita State.

However, unless somebody emerges (hopefully ISUr) as a regular contender for an at large, yes we will be considered a 1 bid league going forward.
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Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby BirdsEyeView » January 26th, 2017, 9:12 am

LanceShock wrote:If WSU left, RPI is the least of any Valley team's worries that is aspiring to get an at large bid. A bigger issue, where being in the Valley has hurt WSU the last two year, is that it removes two games from the schedule against a team that (at least for now and into the foreseeable future) that can help give a team some of the good wins needed to get an at large. If you are a Valley team and something goes wrong with your nonconference schedule (ie an injury to a key player during the nonconference or opponents performing below what would have been expected), and all of a sudden you are looking at needing to win Arch Madness to go to the NCAA tournament.


100% agree in the league's current state.

Can SIU get back to it's mid 2000's glory days?
ISUr is trending up every year since Muller arrived in terms of final standings in the league, can it continue? Loyola and MSU is recruiting well (coaching holding them back a bit)
UNI - Always in the mix
Bradley on a 5 year plan to regain respectability.
Some schools like ISUb are a recruit or two away (look at what Odum did to that program for 4 years).

Marginal improvement from each. Get a few in the top 100 RPI every year and better league wins can be had to improve NCAA resumes
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Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby Wufan » January 26th, 2017, 12:03 pm

BirdsEyeView wrote:
LanceShock wrote:If WSU left, RPI is the least of any Valley team's worries that is aspiring to get an at large bid. A bigger issue, where being in the Valley has hurt WSU the last two year, is that it removes two games from the schedule against a team that (at least for now and into the foreseeable future) that can help give a team some of the good wins needed to get an at large. If you are a Valley team and something goes wrong with your nonconference schedule (ie an injury to a key player during the nonconference or opponents performing below what would have been expected), and all of a sudden you are looking at needing to win Arch Madness to go to the NCAA tournament.


100% agree in the league's current state.

Can SIU get back to it's mid 2000's glory days?
ISUr is trending up every year since Muller arrived in terms of final standings in the league, can it continue? Loyola and MSU is recruiting well (coaching holding them back a bit)
UNI - Always in the mix
Bradley on a 5 year plan to regain respectability.
Some schools like ISUb are a recruit or two away (look at what Odum did to that program for 4 years).

Marginal improvement from each. Get a few in the top 100 RPI every year and better league wins can be had to improve NCAA resumes


This should be the plan regardless of any realignment.
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Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby Redbirds4Life » January 26th, 2017, 12:31 pm

If Wichita State leaves the Valley, it will be the end of the Valley as we have known it. There will be multiple teams following them right out the door. Illinois State/Northern Iowa have both been wanting to get into FBS conferences for football and this may what makes them go right out the door. I would be disappointed, because the valley is an awesome conference. I just don't think that the can survive a Wichita State exit, like they did when Creighton left.
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Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby BirdsEyeView » January 26th, 2017, 12:35 pm

Wufan wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:
LanceShock wrote:If WSU left, RPI is the least of any Valley team's worries that is aspiring to get an at large bid. A bigger issue, where being in the Valley has hurt WSU the last two year, is that it removes two games from the schedule against a team that (at least for now and into the foreseeable future) that can help give a team some of the good wins needed to get an at large. If you are a Valley team and something goes wrong with your nonconference schedule (ie an injury to a key player during the nonconference or opponents performing below what would have been expected), and all of a sudden you are looking at needing to win Arch Madness to go to the NCAA tournament.


100% agree in the league's current state.

Can SIU get back to it's mid 2000's glory days?
ISUr is trending up every year since Muller arrived in terms of final standings in the league, can it continue? Loyola and MSU is recruiting well (coaching holding them back a bit)
UNI - Always in the mix
Bradley on a 5 year plan to regain respectability.
Some schools like ISUb are a recruit or two away (look at what Odum did to that program for 4 years).

Marginal improvement from each. Get a few in the top 100 RPI every year and better league wins can be had to improve NCAA resumes


This should be the plan regardless of any realignment.


Yes, but it should be considered in all data points as well. Marginal improvements from programs as a whole make up the difference of a loss from WSU (in some areas). Bradley specifically should improve a ton.
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Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby BCPanther » January 26th, 2017, 2:16 pm

Its all about non-con scheduling. There are too many teams playing way too many 250+ RPI teams.

You don't have to go crazy and schedule like UNI and Wichita do and where Illinois State is getting to (good on you Birds), but you can't play 4 SWAC schools and 3 Ohio Valley schools and hope to have anything resembling decent numbers.

I'm not sure what Wichita has outside of Oklahoma next year but I'm sure it will be very good. UNI has Battle 4 Atlantis, @ North Carolina, Xavier in Cedar Falls and Iowa State in Des Moines and its also rumored that our Mtn West game is UNLV in Cedar Falls. Even if everybody else would come half way, it would make a massive difference.
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Re: If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

Postby SubGod22 » January 26th, 2017, 2:22 pm

BCPanther wrote:Its all about non-con scheduling. There are too many teams playing way too many 250+ RPI teams.

You don't have to go crazy and schedule like UNI and Wichita do and where Illinois State is getting to (good on you Birds), but you can't play 4 SWAC schools and 3 Ohio Valley schools and hope to have anything resembling decent numbers.

I'm not sure what Wichita has outside of Oklahoma next year but I'm sure it will be very good. UNI has Battle 4 Atlantis, @ North Carolina, Xavier in Cedar Falls and Iowa State in Des Moines and its also rumored that our Mtn West game is UNLV in Cedar Falls. Even if everybody else would come half way, it would make a massive difference.

Wichita has Maui, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Not sure where either of those two will stand. I believe we have Tulsa which is young this year and you'd assume would get better. I'm not sure if we have SLU again, but I hope not. I'm sure we'll have a couple more respectable games when the schedule gets completed.
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