Arch madness seeding

[Hacksaw]

Update with 7 rounds to go:

[hot nuts]

Finally Drake and Bradley back in the Thursday 4. Nothing against Drake but this just feels right.

[BirdsEyeView]

Update with 7 rounds to go:

Thank you!

[chitown fanatic]

Ok, I admit it, Im obsessed with hacksaw's probability chart as its the best thing about this site. Could we please have another update now that theres only 6 left??....thank you

[uniftw]

Ok, I admit it, Im obsessed with hacksaw's probability chart as its the best thing about this site. Could we please have another update now that theres only 6 left??....thank you

It'll be up this PM, per his post on PN yesterday.

Essentially the bottom 3 are "locked in" as PIG - Bradley, ISUb, Evansville. Drake is real close, though their schedule down the stretch may help them if someone like MSU or Loyola falters. I could put UNI there, but UNI swept Drake, and Drakes RPI (now the tie break) is the worst in the conference so they'd lose that to anyone.

Essentially UNI, MSU, SIU and Loyola are locked into 3-6, but order is TBD. There is zero difference between 3 and 6 and 4 and 5 as far as conference tournament goes. So really it's a battle to get into the 4/5 game.

[chitown fanatic]

I wouldn't lock UNI into that mix just yet...if BU wins Wednesday and loses Saturday, UNI will likely still need to beat BU next week to get out of PIG mess for good. FWIW, I think MSU and Lusk are the real candidates to go 1-5 down the stretch and play on Thursday. Marty did BU a big favor Saturday. BU fans are big SIU fans the rest of the way against whoever they play until mvc tourney as well.

[Hacksaw]

Hey all, locked into meetings all morning, but here is the update:

[uniftw]

I wouldn't lock UNI into that mix just yet...if BU wins Wednesday and loses Saturday, UNI will likely still need to beat BU next week to get out of PIG mess for good. FWIW, I think MSU and Lusk are the real candidates to go 1-5 down the stretch and play on Thursday. Marty did BU a big favor Saturday. BU fans are big SIU fans the rest of the way against whoever they play until mvc tourney as well.

Sure, we aren't locked out of being a PIG yet, but it's pretty damn close if for no other reason than having a 2 game lead on Drake. Drake needs to finish with more wins because UNI won both games this year. Pretend both finish at 7-11 in conference play (that's UNI going 1-5 and Drake going 2-4). UNI still finishes a head of Drake. UNI has games left against Bradley, ISUb, MSU, ISUr, WSU and SIU). In theory (yes, anything can happen) UNI has at least 2 wins left, likely 3 and maybe 4. For Drake to pass UNI they are likely going to have to go a minimum of 4-2 down the stretch. Bradley needs to go 5-1 to have a chance, but the RPI won't catch UNI so they need to go 6-0 and have UNI win 3 or less to avoid PIG.

[Stickboy46]

Hey all, locked into meetings all morning, but here is the update:

So there is a .002% chance that SIU finishes ahead of ISU?

[Wufan]

I wouldn't lock UNI into that mix just yet...if BU wins Wednesday and loses Saturday, UNI will likely still need to beat BU next week to get out of PIG mess for good. FWIW, I think MSU and Lusk are the real candidates to go 1-5 down the stretch and play on Thursday. Marty did BU a big favor Saturday. BU fans are big SIU fans the rest of the way against whoever they play until mvc tourney as well.

Sure, we aren't locked out of being a PIG yet, but it's pretty damn close if for no other reason than having a 2 game lead on Drake. Drake needs to finish with more wins because UNI won both games this year. Pretend both finish at 7-11 in conference play (that's UNI going 1-5 and Drake going 2-4). UNI still finishes a head of Drake. UNI has games left against Bradley, ISUb, MSU, ISUr, WSU and SIU). In theory (yes, anything can happen) UNI has at least 2 wins left, likely 3 and maybe 4. For Drake to pass UNI they are likely going to have to go a minimum of 4-2 down the stretch. Bradley needs to go 5-1 to have a chance, but the RPI won't catch UNI so they need to go 6-0 and have UNI win 3 or less to avoid PIG.

I think your conclusion is accurate, but your logic is flawed. If UNI finishes 2-4 and Drake finishes 4-2, tie-breakers don't matter.