Arch madness seeding

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Re: Arch madness seeding

Postby Stickboy46 » February 19th, 2017, 8:07 pm

Rollbird5 wrote:For those that know this stuff better than me, if both wsu and isu win out can wsu rpi pass up isu? Creeping closer

Barring an epic collapse by ISUs non con and WSUs non con winning out... I don't think it's possible
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Re: Arch madness seeding

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Re: Arch madness seeding

Postby Rollbird5 » February 19th, 2017, 8:19 pm

Thanks Wufan and Stickboy. Now hopefully we can win out so the tiebreaker comes into play :Cheers:
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Re: Arch madness seeding

Postby Stickboy46 » February 19th, 2017, 8:50 pm

Rollbird5 wrote:Thanks Wufan and Stickboy. Now hopefully we can win out so the tiebreaker comes into play :Cheers:

You have a good chance if MM is ok.
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Re: Arch madness seeding

Postby hot nuts » February 20th, 2017, 8:27 am

The birds seem extremely vulnerable right now. I almost expect them to lose one of these last two.
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Re: Arch madness seeding

Postby chitown fanatic » February 20th, 2017, 8:29 am

eagerly awaiting the hacksaw update. the only sure thing in st Louis is no play in teams will win
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Re: Arch madness seeding

Postby hot nuts » February 20th, 2017, 8:37 am

chitown fanatic wrote:eagerly awaiting the hacksaw update. the only sure thing in st Louis is no play in teams will win


I'll wager you that at least half of them win on Thursday.
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Re: Arch madness seeding

Postby chitown fanatic » February 20th, 2017, 8:59 am

hot nuts wrote:
chitown fanatic wrote:eagerly awaiting the hacksaw update. the only sure thing in st Louis is no play in teams will win


I'll wager you that at least half of them win on Thursday.


Touche...nice
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Re: Arch madness seeding

Postby Hacksaw » February 20th, 2017, 9:38 am

The final 1,024 scenarios:

Image
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Re: Arch madness seeding

Postby Hacksaw » February 20th, 2017, 9:39 am

Weighted probabilities:

Image
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Re: Arch madness seeding

Postby Hacksaw » February 21st, 2017, 11:22 am

Tonight's WSU-UE game has some small seeding implications on a few more teams than just those involved.

With a WSU win:
*Evansville is eliminated from the #6 seed (previously 0.5% chance weighted, 4.7% unweighted), and locked into Thursday night
*Bradley is eliminated from the #6 seed (previously 0.3% chance weighted, 2.3% unweighted), and locked into Thursday night
*Missouri State is eliminated from the #7 seed (previously 0.8% chance weighted, 5.5% unweighted), and locked into Friday
*Loyola is eliminated from the #8 seed (previously 0.1% chance weighted, 3.1% unweighted)
*Drake and Loyola would be the only possible remaining Thursday-Friday flip (3.6% weighted chance, 12.5% unweighted) if Drake beats Loyola, Drake beats Bradley, and SIU beats Loyola

With a UE win:
*No teams are eliminated from potential seeds that are a current possibility, however many odds will change drastically due to the expected rarity of this outcome
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