Big dance possibilities

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Re: Big dance possibilities

Postby TheAsianSensation » February 12th, 2017, 4:34 pm

It's one of the hidden tricks of the non-con SoS. Michigan St is probably better than UNC-Wilmington, but UNCW is racking up a big-time W-L record while MSU piddles around in a power conference. The SoS formula doesn't see that MSU is a power team and UNCW is a mid major - it just sees that UNCW's winning percentage is 80% and Michigan St's is 60%. Therefore the RPI sees UNCW as a far bigger help towards the SoS.

Duke and Kansas in recent years have been masters of this trick. They always scout out the best low-major programs to invite for one-offs at home - knowing those schools would be giddy at their one chance, and that Duke/Kansas could feast on their gaudy winning percentage in the SoS.
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Re: Big dance possibilities

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Re: Big dance possibilities

Postby Red » February 17th, 2017, 11:37 am

Bubble watch:

Illinois State [22-5 (14-1), RPI: 35, SOS: 158] Illinois State trailed Missouri State -- which, if not great, is certainly better than its 200-ish RPI conveys -- by eight midway through the second half Wednesday, before scoring 10 straight points, trading 3s for the subsequent stretch, and eventually holding on for a 67-66 win. Close call, that, but ISU's long-shot bubble bid nonetheless remains afloat for the time being.

Wichita State [24-4 (14-1), RPI: 47, SOS: 203] Wichita State's last three wins -- Missouri State by 18, Loyola-Chicago by 17, Southern Illinois by 19 -- almost seem like nailbiters in comparison to the 41-point demolition the Shockers engineered against Illinois State on Feb. 4. The latter, still, remains their only top-100 victory of the season, which means the committee is going to be even less likely than it was a year ago (when WSU was unfairly shunted into the play-in round) to take solace in the Shockers' impressive efficiency margins.


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Re: Big dance possibilities

Postby Redbirds4Life » February 17th, 2017, 12:48 pm

Loosely Translated, both teams are in trouble...
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Re: Big dance possibilities

Postby TheObserver » February 17th, 2017, 2:35 pm

Which is weird, considering another employee at the same company has WSU safely in as an 8.
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Re: Big dance possibilities

Postby Cdizzle » February 17th, 2017, 2:51 pm

Only one of these teams is in trouble.....the other is getting an auto bid.
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Re: Big dance possibilities

Postby Redbirds4Life » February 17th, 2017, 2:56 pm

Cdizzle wrote:Only one of these teams is in trouble.....the other is getting an auto bid.


The bubble watch is talking about their At-Large possibilities, so yeah, both are in trouble.
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Re: Big dance possibilities

Postby TheObserver » February 17th, 2017, 3:00 pm

Redbirds4Life wrote:
Cdizzle wrote:Only one of these teams is in trouble.....the other is getting an auto bid.


The bubble watch is talking about their At-Large possibilities, so yeah, both are in trouble.


Like a bird, I think his post flew right over your head.
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Re: Big dance possibilities

Postby Redbirds4Life » February 17th, 2017, 3:09 pm

TheObserver wrote:
Redbirds4Life wrote:
Cdizzle wrote:Only one of these teams is in trouble.....the other is getting an auto bid.


The bubble watch is talking about their At-Large possibilities, so yeah, both are in trouble.


Like a bird, I think his post flew right over your head.


My bad, I don't always catch the Wichita State humor....
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Re: Big dance possibilities

Postby Cdizzle » February 17th, 2017, 3:11 pm

Redbirds4Life wrote:
TheObserver wrote:
Redbirds4Life wrote:
The bubble watch is talking about their At-Large possibilities, so yeah, both are in trouble.


Like a bird, I think his post flew right over your head.


My bad, I don't always catch the Wichita State humor....

It is a little 'high-brow.'
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Re: Big dance possibilities

Postby TheAsianSensation » February 18th, 2017, 6:08 pm

Wichita St is quickly approaching polarizing status.

(the below is all assuming they win out to the finals in St Louis and lose to Illinois St in what I can only assume would be a sign of the apocalypse)

If they get an at-large bid, they will simply have one of the worst at-large resumes to ever get a NCAA bid.

If they don't get an at-large bid, they will become one of the best teams from an analytics standpoint to ever miss the NCAA tournament.

It's those two extremes, and nothing else. One will come true, and one won't. No matter what, a new precedent would be set with Wichita St. If they miss, the analytics crowd will be mad, and rightfully so. If they make, the resume crowd will be mad, and rightfully so.

And frankly, we should stop pretending like there's a right answer on what to do with them. They're an outlier in every way. This is a nearly unprecedented case. We just have to admit that no matter what, some people will be mad as hell, and that this is a paradoxical situation with no solution that will make most people happy. There's no right way for the selection committee to handle this one.
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