Bubble watch

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Re: Bubble watch

Postby BirdsEyeView » March 14th, 2017, 7:33 am

Somebody email that out (edit for Tulane) and send it to ESPN, CBS, Sports Illustrated.

The Muller tweet has gotten him on SportsCenter, etc. Ride the wave with this data!
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Re: Bubble watch

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Re: Bubble watch

Postby SubGod22 » March 14th, 2017, 10:06 am

TheAsianSensation wrote:
SubGod22 wrote:Why did you include Tulane when they're a part of the 9 conferences you weren't including as mid-major? I know they suck, as you pointed out and ended up tossing anyway, but I'm not sure why you included them to begin with.

Oops, good point. I mean, in spirit they deserve to be included, right? :?


Things get dicey when we go that route. There are a lot of mids in the top 9.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby TheAsianSensation » March 14th, 2017, 7:03 pm

SubGod22 wrote:
TheAsianSensation wrote:
SubGod22 wrote:Why did you include Tulane when they're a part of the 9 conferences you weren't including as mid-major? I know they suck, as you pointed out and ended up tossing anyway, but I'm not sure why you included them to begin with.

Oops, good point. I mean, in spirit they deserve to be included, right? :?


Things get dicey when we go that route. There are a lot of mids in the top 9.

I know, but I also ran into a lot of Mountain West teams (who were supposed to be better), SMU, and UConn. Plus the A-10 whose middle does a great job of being RPI 75-125 each year. Remember a small part of the RPI is opponents' SoS...and the AAC, A-10, and Mountain West generally provide an advantage there that the MVC does not.

I do think I need to refine that list and get a 2nd draft. It's worthy of a deeper dive. But I think the general point remains that quality games against quality competition at home are not very accessible.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby SubGod22 » March 15th, 2017, 8:57 am

None of that changes the general point of what you laid out. If you want a home game from a power conference school you basically have to suck or maintain a level of success for a number of years.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby TheAsianSensation » March 15th, 2017, 5:23 pm

One myth that I will debunk: that the NCAA scheduled Dayton/Wichita and St Mary's/VCU on purpose. Nah, there's logic behind those pairings.

The 4 spots for 7 and 10 seeds in the bracket:

Midwest (Indianapolis)
South (Indianapolis)
West (Salt Lake City)
East (Greenville)

The 7 line, in order: St Mary's, South Carolina, Michigan, Dayton
The 10 line, in order: Oklahoma St, Wichita St, Marquette, VCU

On the 7 line:
- St Mary's to the West and SLC is easy
- South Carolina is next, and Greenville is an obvious fit for them
- Michigan and Dayton are next, for the two Indianapolis sites. Michigan gets the Midwest and Dayton the South regional based on geography

On the 10 line:
- Oklahoma St: it's close, but Indianapolis is their preferred site among the 3. OSU gets the Indy spot in the Midwest over the South
- Wichita St: it's close too, but Indy is their preferred site too, so they get the South spot
- Marquette is next. Greenville is better than SLC for them
- VCU ends up going to Salt Lake City, as the worst 10 seed they get the worst geographic draw

So according to the committee's rules, these matchups make sense. If you believe the committee manipulated these draws, then you think the committee altered the S-Curve to make this happen. And if you think that, then you're accusing the committee on doing some pretty advanced mathematical tricks to cover their tracks. Which means you're assuming they're competent. Which we know by definition isn't true.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Wufan » March 15th, 2017, 6:57 pm

Why not flip OSU to the South and WSU to the Midwest?
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby TheAsianSensation » March 16th, 2017, 10:33 am

Wufan wrote:Why not flip OSU to the South and WSU to the Midwest?

OSU is closer, in mileage, to the Midwest (KC) than the South (Memphis). Not by a lot, but still.

NCAA won't flip what geography says unless they're absolutely forced to. Rigidity.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby TheAsianSensation » March 27th, 2017, 3:28 pm

I know I'm tearing open old wounds, but it warrants revisiting.

This tournament has kind of been a disaster for the mid-major cause.

Everyone could agree that Wichita St wasn't a 10 seed. 9, 8, 7, or even better, but somewhere in that 7-8 range, right? And Wichita proved it deserved better, more or less taking Kentucky to the brink.

The problem is the teams on the 7, 8, and 9 lines seemed to prove themselves well. Arkansas took UNC to the brink, NW took Gonzaga to the brink, Nova lost to Wisky, USC beat Dook, Michigan beat UL. Those teams showing well just gives the NCAA ammunition to put the middling major teams in those seeds instead of the mid-majors. What we really needed were powerhouse performances from the teams on the top 2 lines, showing that Wichita deserved to move up the S-Curve.

But the even bigger problem is South Carolina itself. Don't be fooled, THEY ARE THE ENEMY OF THE MID-MAJOR. Go back to selection sunday, see who the bracketologists all missed the most on. South Carolina was probably the widest miss. They were my widest miss. They were grossly overseeded, should've been a 10 when they were a 7 instead. Right at that time, I identified them as the biggest committee mistake.

Now they "validated" that seed with their run. This is just going to motivate the NCAA to continue to overseed average teams from major conferences. Now, South Carolina proved it was better than middling, but of the next 5-10 teams that come along next year with the same type of resume that S Carolina had, almost all of them will end up being middling.
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