Bubble watch

Discuss the MVC hoops season here.

Re: Bubble watch

Postby Stickboy46 » March 10th, 2017, 10:56 am

BuBrave2006 wrote:
Red wrote:I hate that wins by KState and TCU against teams who don't have much to play for or have suspended players could knock out non-BCS teams from the bubble.


You could hardly say that teams like Baylor or Kansas don't have much to play for. Everyone wants to win their conference tournament. Everyone wants to lock up as good a seed as they can get for the NCAA tournament. Some teams may be more desperate than others, but everyone is still trying to win. A win over Baylor is a damn good win. As for playing Kansas without Josh Jackson due to a suspension, I don't think Illinois State is the right program to be able to complain about that given some of the incidents with some of your players.


I kind of disagree. Baylor yes, but KU no. They went from a 1 Seed ... To a 1 seed with the loss. It really did zero harm to them, and gave them 2 extra days rest for a roster that really only goes 7 deep.
Stickboy46
All MVC
All MVC
 
Posts: 710
Joined: April 21st, 2015, 9:24 am

Re: Bubble watch

Sponsor

Sponsor
 

Re: Bubble watch

Postby hot nuts » March 10th, 2017, 10:59 am

Illinois state is not selected to participate in the NCAA tournament this year, I'm having a hard time figuring out why I would ever go to another regular season game again. Perhaps if there was a compelling matchup against a high-profile team I would reconsider.
hot nuts
All MVC
All MVC
 
Posts: 631
Joined: August 5th, 2010, 8:54 am

Re: Bubble watch

Postby BuBrave2006 » March 10th, 2017, 11:19 am

Stickboy46 wrote:
BuBrave2006 wrote:
Red wrote:I hate that wins by KState and TCU against teams who don't have much to play for or have suspended players could knock out non-BCS teams from the bubble.


You could hardly say that teams like Baylor or Kansas don't have much to play for. Everyone wants to win their conference tournament. Everyone wants to lock up as good a seed as they can get for the NCAA tournament. Some teams may be more desperate than others, but everyone is still trying to win. A win over Baylor is a damn good win. As for playing Kansas without Josh Jackson due to a suspension, I don't think Illinois State is the right program to be able to complain about that given some of the incidents with some of your players.


I kind of disagree. Baylor yes, but KU no. They went from a 1 Seed ... To a 1 seed with the loss. It really did zero harm to them, and gave them 2 extra days rest for a roster that really only goes 7 deep.


Everyone wants to win every game they play. Sure Kansas likely stayed at a 1 seed. But you don't think Bill Self wants to continue his conference dominance and win the Big 12 Tournament? You think he wants a loss on his resume? If you watched the game yesterday, you could tell that several of the Kansas players did NOT want to lose that game. It's tournament atmosphere.

It's a tough break for ISU that TCU got to play against Kansas with Jackson suspended. But that's all it is, a tough break. To imply that Kansas was unmotivated for this game is just wrong to me. I'd be way more inclined to believe that they simply looked passed TCU and assumed that they would win.
BuBrave2006
All MVC
All MVC
 
Posts: 511
Joined: February 9th, 2015, 2:52 pm

Re: Bubble watch

Postby Red » March 10th, 2017, 1:09 pm

Dayton just lost to a 16-14 Davidson team so it's possible that the A10 could steal a bid.
Red
All MVC
All MVC
 
Posts: 954
Joined: August 4th, 2010, 3:37 pm

Re: Bubble watch

Postby Ricardo del Rio » March 10th, 2017, 1:34 pm

LanceShock wrote:Saw an article on fivethirtyeight.com talking about their ESPN's new Strength of Record stat (fyi ESPN owns fivethirtyeight.com). According to them, it predicts the teams that will make the tournament 90% of the time. Currently, the statistical model they are using (that includes other factors but is largely based on SOR) has Illinois State at an 85.7% of making it into the tournament. It will be interesting to see how accurate that model is.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-the-ncaa-bubble-heres-the-number-to-watch/


Lance, don't you get tired of being correct? I never would have guess that Nate Silver through in with Disney/ESPN.

" FiveThirtyEight, sometimes referred to as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college,[538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. In July 2013, ESPN announced that it would become the owner of the FiveThirtyEight brand and site, and Silver was appointed as editor-in-chief.[3] The ESPN-owned FiveThirtyEight began publication on March 17, 2014. In the ESPN era, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture.
Ricardo del Rio
MVC Hall Of Famer
MVC Hall Of Famer
 
Posts: 1274
Joined: August 8th, 2010, 7:41 am

Re: Bubble watch

Postby TheAsianSensation » March 11th, 2017, 10:12 am

RIght now I have at the bubble 7 teams playing 4 spots.

Last 4 in:
Last 4 in:
Kansas St
Wake Forest
USC
Rhode Island

Last 3 out:
Syracuse
Illinois
Illinois St

Nevada and Middle Tennessee can still complicate things.

Also in bracketing Wichita St....I think they're a likely 8/9 seed at this point. About a 50/50 chance between going to @Salt Lake City/Gonzaga or @Tulsa/Kansas. It might depend on exactly where WSU falls. If they're the highest 8 seed or 9 seed, say hello to Kansas. In my current bracket, they're the last 8 seed and the Tulsa spot got filled, so I have the following:

@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) North Dakota
8) Wichita St vs. 9) Arkansas

with FSU/Minnesota in the sweet 16 and Oregon/Florida in the elite 8.
http://bracketball.blogspot.com/ A national version of the world-famous TAS Bracketology. Spread the word
TheAsianSensation
MVCfans.com
MVCfans.com
 
Posts: 1175
Joined: April 6th, 2012, 7:23 am

Re: Bubble watch

Postby Ali » March 11th, 2017, 10:45 am

I think the Shox would take that in a second.
Ali
All MVC
All MVC
 
Posts: 477
Joined: August 10th, 2010, 4:40 pm

Re: Bubble watch

Postby BlueChipShock » March 11th, 2017, 11:05 am

TheAsianSensation wrote:RIght now I have at the bubble 7 teams playing 4 spots.

Last 4 in:
Last 4 in:
Kansas St
Wake Forest
USC
Rhode Island

Last 3 out:
Syracuse
Illinois
Illinois St

Nevada and Middle Tennessee can still complicate things.

Also in bracketing Wichita St....I think they're a likely 8/9 seed at this point. About a 50/50 chance between going to @Salt Lake City/Gonzaga or @Tulsa/Kansas. It might depend on exactly where WSU falls. If they're the highest 8 seed or 9 seed, say hello to Kansas. In my current bracket, they're the last 8 seed and the Tulsa spot got filled, so I have the following:

@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) North Dakota
8) Wichita St vs. 9) Arkansas

with FSU/Minnesota in the sweet 16 and Oregon/Florida in the elite 8.


Other than the distance that would be a gr8 draw for WSU.....I keep looking for a way for Ill St to get in but I dont think it will happen. The Murray St and Tulsa losses are going to push them to the NIT. The way this has played out, I think the Palm was right, WSU may very well have been on the outside with a loss last Sunday....which is a shame and a sham.
BlueChipShock
MVC Recruit
MVC Recruit
 
Posts: 17
Joined: February 26th, 2017, 4:53 pm

Re: Bubble watch

Postby Play Angry » March 11th, 2017, 11:15 am

Yuck. I would be pissed if we draw Gonzaga again.

Entering today I have ISUr as my last team in (ahead of KSU).

Birds need to root hard for Davidson to win today (followed by a loss tomorrow to VCU) - I still don't think they'd jump URI, but there's a chance this scenario would allow it. Chalk winning in the Mountain West, CUSA and Sun Belt would also be nice for them.

Gonna be close.
Play Angry
All MVC
All MVC
 
Posts: 814
Joined: October 17th, 2013, 12:06 pm

Re: Bubble watch

Postby BlueChipShock » March 11th, 2017, 12:07 pm

Play Angry wrote:Yuck. I would be pissed if we draw Gonzaga again.

Entering today I have ISUr as my last team in (ahead of KSU).

Birds need to root hard for Davidson to win today (followed by a loss tomorrow to VCU) - I still don't think they'd jump URI, but there's a chance this scenario would allow it. Chalk winning in the Mountain West, CUSA and Sun Belt would also be nice for them.

Gonna be close.



Why you wouldnt want the weakest #1 seed in your 8/9 line is a little nutty to me but to each his own. I'm still hopeful for the 6/7 seed we deserve but I dont see it.
BlueChipShock
MVC Recruit
MVC Recruit
 
Posts: 17
Joined: February 26th, 2017, 4:53 pm

PreviousNext

Return to Missouri Valley Conference Basketball

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: batts, BCPanther, GoRacers0226 and 67 guests