Bubble watch

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Bubble watch

Postby TheAsianSensation » March 6th, 2017, 1:15 pm

Let's all spend a week in angst about Illinois St's profile.

Here's how I have the bubble arranged at the moment:

Bubble teams, in:
Oklahoma St
Miami
Northwestern
Seton Hall
Virginia Tech
Dayton
Arkansas

Bubble teams likely in as long as they avoid the disaster loss:
Michigan
VCU
Providence
Xavier
Michigan St

Legitimate bubble teams:
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
Marquette
Wake Forest
USC
Kansas St
---cutline---
Rhode Island
Illinois St
Georgia Tech
Illinois

Not likely, but not impossible:
Houston
California
Indiana
Clemson
Iowa
Georgia

So I have ISU in a 10-for-6 battle right now, with the possibility of those 6 spots reduced to 5 or 4 by bid poachers.

Syracuse - gets Miami first in the ACCT. Will a loss do enough damage to their profile? I think they're safe with a win there
Wake - gets BC then VaTech. I can see a loss in either pushing them below ISU
Illinois - gets Michigan, then Purdue. Probably needs both
Marquette - gets Seton Hall first, then likely Nova. I think a win over SHU might be enough (in other notes, with Provi getting Creighton, tough to see them falling out...Xavier has DePaul first and will be safe without any funny business happening there)
USC - gets Washington and UCLA. Obviously need a loss to Washington here, USC won't fall behind ISU if they lose to UCLA, quality loss
Vandy - gets A&M, then Florida. Not sure I can drop them below ISU if they get a quality loss to Florida. A&M would be a different matter though
Kansas St - gets Baylor to start. Going to be tough to ding them too much if they lose that
URI - gets (likely) Bonaventure to start, then probably Dayton. Probably needs both
GaTech - gets Pitt then Virginia. Might need both and then some

The odds are against ISU here pretty bigtime. Probably need some combination of Washington>USC, A&M>Vandy and BC>Wake to feel decent about the chances. The bubble has thinned in recent days and we've cleared some dead weight (TCU, Georgia, Cal, among others), so their chances have gone up from "dead" to "almost dead". The problem is I'm running out of teams I can drop below them with just one week left.

The ISU profile:
Illinois St (26-6) (17-1) RPI 30 SoS 124
Vital signs: 12-6 R/N, non-con SoS 146, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 2-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Wichita St, New Mexico, N-Tulsa?
Bad losses: @Murray St
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Bubble watch

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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Redbirds4Life » March 6th, 2017, 1:30 pm

Redbirds won't make it. Nothing about their resume is really that attractive. They have bad losses. Other than Wichita, no really good wins (and no Redbird fans, New Mexico isn't a quality win). The MVC title game loss isn't a reason that they get left out, but not looking good in that game is a lost opportunity to look good for an "eye test" argument. The technical fouls are also not a great look for the record on that.

Super disappointing, but that's reality. If every single bubble team loses early, hey now, there is a prayer then. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see the boys get a shot to dance, but I am realistic, it's probably not happening. All we can do is hope for a little luck and maybe a shot at Dayton.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Ricardo del Rio » March 6th, 2017, 5:38 pm

TheAsianSensation wrote:Let's all spend a week in angst about Illinois St's profile.

Here's how I have the bubble arranged at the moment:

Bubble teams, in:
Oklahoma St
Miami
Northwestern
Seton Hall
Virginia Tech
Dayton
Arkansas

Bubble teams likely in as long as they avoid the disaster loss:
Michigan
VCU
Providence
Xavier
Michigan St

Legitimate bubble teams:
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
Marquette
Wake Forest
USC
Kansas St
---cutline---
Rhode Island
Illinois St
Georgia Tech
Illinois

Not likely, but not impossible:
Houston
California
Indiana
Clemson
Iowa
Georgia

So I have ISU in a 10-for-6 battle right now, with the possibility of those 6 spots reduced to 5 or 4 by bid poachers.

Syracuse - gets Miami first in the ACCT. Will a loss do enough damage to their profile? I think they're safe with a win there
Wake - gets BC then VaTech. I can see a loss in either pushing them below ISU
Illinois - gets Michigan, then Purdue. Probably needs both
Marquette - gets Seton Hall first, then likely Nova. I think a win over SHU might be enough (in other notes, with Provi getting Creighton, tough to see them falling out...Xavier has DePaul first and will be safe without any funny business happening there)
USC - gets Washington and UCLA. Obviously need a loss to Washington here, USC won't fall behind ISU if they lose to UCLA, quality loss
Vandy - gets A&M, then Florida. Not sure I can drop them below ISU if they get a quality loss to Florida. A&M would be a different matter though
Kansas St - gets Baylor to start. Going to be tough to ding them too much if they lose that
URI - gets (likely) Bonaventure to start, then probably Dayton. Probably needs both
GaTech - gets Pitt then Virginia. Might need both and then some

The odds are against ISU here pretty bigtime. Probably need some combination of Washington>USC, A&M>Vandy and BC>Wake to feel decent about the chances. The bubble has thinned in recent days and we've cleared some dead weight (TCU, Georgia, Cal, among others), so their chances have gone up from "dead" to "almost dead". The problem is I'm running out of teams I can drop below them with just one week left.

The ISU profile:
Illinois St (26-6) (17-1) RPI 30 SoS 124
Vital signs: 12-6 R/N, non-con SoS 146, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 2-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Wichita St, New Mexico, N-Tulsa?
Bad losses: @Murray St


Thanks mucho as always.

In the profile, you omitted "Close Calls".
MSU - 5 points
MSU - 1
Loyola - 2
SIU - 4

JUST KIDDING, Red Bird fans.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby TheAsianSensation » March 7th, 2017, 11:50 pm

A bad mathematician looks at trends and applies the trend to current data sets.

A good mathematician looks at trends, analyzes the conditions that led to the trends, then compares the condition to the condition that led to the current data sets.

A bad mathematician says a team with 15 losses is automatically out.

A good mathematician looks at the teams that were closest with 15 losses and sees if attributes of those situations are applicable to the current situation.

A bad mathematician looks at a top 100 win total and judges a team's worth based on that total.

A good mathematician looks at the individual wins within and around the top 100, and compares it to other teams.

A bad mathematician looks at the recent history of a conference and applies previous trends to assign value to all teams in the conference.

A good mathematician separates year-to-year trends of conferences and only analyzes the conference with data that isn't corrupted by previous years.

In a related note, Jerry Palm is so unbelievably bad at his job.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby AndShock » March 8th, 2017, 1:52 am

Syracuse being considered "in" amongst the majority of bracketologists is pretty disgusting to me. What a worthless team with a douchebag coach who is only going to get in on name recognition. I have ISUr right on the cut line but I do have them above Syracuse. I'd accept any of the bubble teams except Syracuse getting in over ISUr. I'll throw a fit if Cuse gets in.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Horn28Clem30 » March 8th, 2017, 10:56 am

Right or wrong, Syracuse also is going to get points in their favor for going to the Final Four last year. I didn't think they belonged last year, but they vindicated the selection, so the committee is going to look favorably upon that.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby TheObserver » March 8th, 2017, 10:59 am

Horn28Clem30 wrote:Right or wrong, Syracuse also is going to get points in their favor for going to the Final Four last year. I didn't think they belonged last year, but they vindicated the selection, so the committee is going to look favorably upon that.


I don't care if Syracuse won the National Championship last year, they didn't deserve to be in last year and they don't deserve to be in this year.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby LanceShock » March 8th, 2017, 11:23 am

Horn28Clem30 wrote:Right or wrong, Syracuse also is going to get points in their favor for going to the Final Four last year. I didn't think they belonged last year, but they vindicated the selection, so the committee is going to look favorably upon that.

Part of why it was questionable whether or not they should be in was because the committee decided to cherry pick the games Syracuse won while their coach was suspended and ignore the losses (they seemed to have fixed that glitch, but not in a good way, this year). Having success in the tournament does not vindicate lessening the impact of suspending a coach.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Play Angry » March 8th, 2017, 1:22 pm

Syracuse loses its ACC Tournament opener to Miami, dropping to 18-14 with an RPI of 85, 2-11 road record and a 12-13 record vs. the RPI Top 200.

If home wins vs. Duke, UVA and FSU are enough to get them in (again) with this crap resume I will be livid.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby chitown fanatic » March 8th, 2017, 2:07 pm

screw Boeheim. They have no business getting in with that record and RPI. Anytime that jackass gets left out, its a good year
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby TheAsianSensation » March 8th, 2017, 3:06 pm

The more and more I look at Syracuse, the more and more I want to drop them out. I'm not sure I can make the Illinois St > Syracuse case, given the current committee's trends, though.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Play Angry » March 8th, 2017, 3:17 pm

This may be a year where the Committee throws a curve ball and switches focus - there are just so many bubble teams with a handful of good wins coupled with a ton of losses (including some atrocious ones)...cough, cough, Syracuse. They may try to rein in the almost exclusive focus on elite Ws and acknowledge volume and "quality" of losses this year or next to prevent the pendulum from swinging too far.

Probably wishful thinking, but they do change course every ~5-6 years and it seems like we are due for a surprise.
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