Bubble watch

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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Play Angry » March 12th, 2017, 2:30 pm

I'm still in the ~20% or so that thinks ISUr gets in (last team in for me). I have them immediately ahead of KSU and Syracuse.

Will be fun to watch it play out. I am glad WSU finally took care of business in STL when a different outcome would have produced some stress. Go Shockers, Redbirds and MVC this afternoon - just an hour away.
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Re: Bubble watch

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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Play Angry » March 12th, 2017, 4:01 pm

lol Wichita State receives a TEN seed in Indianapolis against Dayton, with the winner advancing to face Kentucky. Cute.

All 4 Dayton at-larges are in the books with no ISUr. Not looking good for the Birds.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby TheAsianSensation » March 12th, 2017, 4:21 pm

Dayton is a 9 masquerading as a 7
Wichita is a 8 masquerading as a 10

Somehow this is actually a fair first-round game Wichita drew, and Kentucky is a better matchup than a 1 seed.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Mikovio » March 12th, 2017, 4:27 pm

BirdsEyeView wrote:
TheAsianSensation wrote:My official prediction:

Last 3 in:
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
USC

Last 2 out:
Syracuse
Illinois St


Thanks other 8 teams in this conference


Thank yourselves. Next time either a. schedule better in the noncon, b. don't lose to crap teams in the noncon or c. both. That way, you don't have to worry about the strength of the Valley. Remember if the Valley was any better, you would have lost a few more games.

Some Redbird fans are saying, well, when we put this schedule together 2-3 years ago we didn't know if the Valley would be so bad. Exactly!

Good call TAS!
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Wufan » March 12th, 2017, 4:48 pm

Mikovio wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:
TheAsianSensation wrote:My official prediction:

Last 3 in:
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
USC

Last 2 out:
Syracuse
Illinois St


Thanks other 8 teams in this conference


Thank yourselves. Next time either a. schedule better in the noncon, b. don't lose to crap teams in the noncon or c. both. That way, you don't have to worry about the strength of the Valley. Remember if the Valley was any better, you would have lost a few more games.

Some Redbird fans are saying, well, when we put this schedule together 2-3 years ago we didn't know if the Valley would be so bad. Exactly!

Good call TAS!


A and B are certainly things that good teams can do to help themselves. Having 8 teams below 120 in the RPI is inexcusable. All that is for winning teams is land mines...opportunities to not make the dance. If the Valley 8 were any better, they'd STILL be bad losses. Gotta have at least a couple top 100s from the rest of the field or else BirdsEye is absolutely correct.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby ISUSOX13 » March 12th, 2017, 4:58 pm

Mikovio wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:
TheAsianSensation wrote:My official prediction:

Last 3 in:
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
USC

Last 2 out:
Syracuse
Illinois St


Thanks other 8 teams in this conference


Thank yourselves. Next time either a. schedule better in the noncon, b. don't lose to crap teams in the noncon or c. both. That way, you don't have to worry about the strength of the Valley. Remember if the Valley was any better, you would have lost a few more games.

Some Redbird fans are saying, well, when we put this schedule together 2-3 years ago we didn't know if the Valley would be so bad. Exactly!

Good call TAS!


Seven, yes SEVEN teams on our schedule were in the NCAA Tournament last year. It just so happened that many of the underachieved.

You're too dumb to realize that though.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Mikovio » March 12th, 2017, 5:23 pm

ISUSOX13 wrote:
Mikovio wrote:Thank yourselves. Next time either a. schedule better in the noncon, b. don't lose to crap teams in the noncon or c. both. That way, you don't have to worry about the strength of the Valley. Remember if the Valley was any better, you would have lost a few more games.

Some Redbird fans are saying, well, when we put this schedule together 2-3 years ago we didn't know if the Valley would be so bad. Exactly!

Good call TAS!


Seven, yes SEVEN teams on our schedule were in the NCAA Tournament last year. It just so happened that many of the underachieved.

You're too dumb to realize that though.


Yes! I'm too dumb to realize this list of noncon opponents is soooo great--

11-11 at Murray St. 14-17 (10-9) 231 70-73 L
11-16 IPFW 16-12 (8-9) 178 75-57 W
11-21 at TCU 18-15 (8-13) 68 71-80 L
11-30 IUPUI 12-18 (8-10) 218 77-63 W
12-03 New Mexico 17-14 (10-9) 86 79-74 W
12-07 at Tulsa 15-17 (9-11) 130 68-70 L
12-10 Tenn-Martin 19-12 (11-7) 164 74-57 W
12-18 St. Joseph's 11-20 (4-15) 201 81-72 W
12-23 vs San Francisco 19-12 (10-9) 94 58-66 L
12-23 at Hawaii 13-16 (8-9) 300 71-45 W
12-25 vs Tulsa 15-17 (9-11) 130 68-56 W


Face it. You f-ed yourselves. Blame yourselves.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby BirdsEyeView » March 12th, 2017, 6:03 pm

Cdizzle wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:
TheAsianSensation wrote:My official prediction:

Last 3 in:
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
USC

Last 2 out:
Syracuse
Illinois St


Thanks other 8 teams in this conference

ISU's average RPI over the prior 7 seasons (as far back as I found on warrenNolan)?

120.

Maybe don't blame the 'others' when you are more a part of that group than not.


Referencing this year only...prior years mean nothing
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby BirdsEyeView » March 12th, 2017, 6:07 pm

Mikovio wrote:
ISUSOX13 wrote:
Mikovio wrote:Thank yourselves. Next time either a. schedule better in the noncon, b. don't lose to crap teams in the noncon or c. both. That way, you don't have to worry about the strength of the Valley. Remember if the Valley was any better, you would have lost a few more games.

Some Redbird fans are saying, well, when we put this schedule together 2-3 years ago we didn't know if the Valley would be so bad. Exactly!

Good call TAS!


Seven, yes SEVEN teams on our schedule were in the NCAA Tournament last year. It just so happened that many of the underachieved.

You're too dumb to realize that though.


Yes! I'm too dumb to realize this list of noncon opponents is soooo great--

11-11 at Murray St. 14-17 (10-9) 231 70-73 L
11-16 IPFW 16-12 (8-9) 178 75-57 W
11-21 at TCU 18-15 (8-13) 68 71-80 L
11-30 IUPUI 12-18 (8-10) 218 77-63 W
12-03 New Mexico 17-14 (10-9) 86 79-74 W
12-07 at Tulsa 15-17 (9-11) 130 68-70 L
12-10 Tenn-Martin 19-12 (11-7) 164 74-57 W
12-18 St. Joseph's 11-20 (4-15) 201 81-72 W
12-23 vs San Francisco 19-12 (10-9) 94 58-66 L
12-23 at Hawaii 13-16 (8-9) 300 71-45 W
12-25 vs Tulsa 15-17 (9-11) 130 68-56 W


Face it. You f-ed yourselves. Blame yourselves.


"We ask dozens of schools to play us every year and they won't. Don't talk to me about scheduling." -Dan Muller (Illinois State #32 RPI)
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby WSpringsBird » March 12th, 2017, 6:40 pm

Thank yourselves. Next time either a. schedule better in the noncon, b. don't lose to crap teams in the noncon or c. both. That way, you don't have to worry about the strength of the Valley. Remember if the Valley was any better, you would have lost

A and B are certainly things that good teams can do to help themselves. Having 8 teams below 120 in the RPI is inexcusable. All that is for winning teams is land mines...opportunities to not make the dance. If the Valley 8 were any better, they'd STILL be bad losses. Gotta have at least a couple top 100s from the rest of the field or else BirdsEye is absolutely correct.[/quote]

Agreed, Wufan. It is about maximizing the probability of getting in multiple teams. If eight of 10 teams in the conference are well south of 100, it is going to be tough for us to get multiple teams in the tournament. Is it possible to get two teams in from such a weak conference? Sure, you can get lucky with your non-conference scheduling, avoid losses, and avoid injuries. But everything has to go nearly 100% right for you.

As the guy from the Springfield paper pointed out on Twitter, about 10 years ago the MVC was outraged that it didn't get a fifth team in the tourney. Now we don't have a third team in the top 100. If the Shockers leave, too, wow, it could be quite a while before we see a second MVC bid.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Rollbird5 » March 12th, 2017, 6:46 pm

Mikovio wrote:
ISUSOX13 wrote:
Mikovio wrote:Thank yourselves. Next time either a. schedule better in the noncon, b. don't lose to crap teams in the noncon or c. both. That way, you don't have to worry about the strength of the Valley. Remember if the Valley was any better, you would have lost a few more games.

Some Redbird fans are saying, well, when we put this schedule together 2-3 years ago we didn't know if the Valley would be so bad. Exactly!

Good call TAS!


Seven, yes SEVEN teams on our schedule were in the NCAA Tournament last year. It just so happened that many of the underachieved.

You're too dumb to realize that though.


Yes! I'm too dumb to realize this list of noncon opponents is soooo great--

11-11 at Murray St. 14-17 (10-9) 231 70-73 L RPI 170
11-16 IPFW 16-12 (8-9) 178 75-57 W RPI 74
11-21 at TCU 18-15 (8-13) 68 71-80 L RPI 168
11-30 IUPUI 12-18 (8-10) 218 77-63 W RPI 189
12-03 New Mexico 17-14 (10-9) 86 79-74 W RPI 145
12-07 at Tulsa 15-17 (9-11) 130 68-70 L RPI 60
12-10 Tenn-Martin 19-12 (11-7) 164 74-57 W RPI 215
12-18 St. Joseph's 11-20 (4-15) 201 81-72 W RPI 20
12-23 vs San Francisco 19-12 (10-9) 94 58-66 L RPI 229
12-23 at Hawaii 13-16 (8-9) 300 71-45 W RPI 86
12-25 vs Tulsa 15-17 (9-11) 130 68-56 W RPI 60


Face it. You f-ed yourselves. Blame yourselves.


I put last years RPI next to each team. Based off the previous year the schedule looked like it would be solid. 5 chances at rpi top 100 teams (Instead of San Fran or tulsa we could've played SDSU (RPI 42) or Utah (RPI 9) in Hawaii). Not many games against sub 200 rpi teams. Obviously you would like a chance or two at a top team like we did last year with Kentucky and Maryland but nothing you can do when the other teams won't even talk about playing against you. Just like Wichita's schedule it looks good on paper but you can't control the teams underperforming to expectations.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Cdizzle » March 12th, 2017, 7:22 pm

BirdsEyeView wrote:
Cdizzle wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:ISU's average RPI over the prior 7 seasons (as far back as I found on warrenNolan)?

120.

Maybe don't blame the 'others' when you are more a part of that group than not.


Referencing this year only...prior years mean nothing

They do when you want to talk crap on the other teams in the league.
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