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LanceShock wrote:Saw an article on fivethirtyeight.com talking about their ESPN's new Strength of Record stat (fyi ESPN owns fivethirtyeight.com). According to them, it predicts the teams that will make the tournament 90% of the time. Currently, the statistical model they are using (that includes other factors but is largely based on SOR) has Illinois State at an 85.7% of making it into the tournament. It will be interesting to see how accurate that model is.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-the-ncaa-bubble-heres-the-number-to-watch/

Lance, don't you get tired of being correct? I never would have guess that Nate Silver through in with Disney/ESPN.

" FiveThirtyEight, sometimes referred to as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college,[538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. In July 2013, ESPN announced that it would become the owner of the FiveThirtyEight brand and site, and Silver was appointed as editor-in-chief.[3] The ESPN-owned FiveThirtyEight began publication on March 17, 2014. In the ESPN era, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture.

RIght now I have at the bubble 7 teams playing 4 spots.

Last 4 in:
Last 4 in:
Kansas St
Wake Forest
USC
Rhode Island

Last 3 out:
Syracuse
Illinois
Illinois St

Nevada and Middle Tennessee can still complicate things.

Also in bracketing Wichita St....I think they're a likely 8/9 seed at this point. About a 50/50 chance between going to @Salt Lake City/Gonzaga or @Tulsa/Kansas. It might depend on exactly where WSU falls. If they're the highest 8 seed or 9 seed, say hello to Kansas. In my current bracket, they're the last 8 seed and the Tulsa spot got filled, so I have the following:

@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) North Dakota
8) Wichita St vs. 9) Arkansas

with FSU/Minnesota in the sweet 16 and Oregon/Florida in the elite 8.

I think the Shox would take that in a second.

TheAsianSensation wrote:RIght now I have at the bubble 7 teams playing 4 spots.

Last 4 in:
Last 4 in:
Kansas St
Wake Forest
USC
Rhode Island

Last 3 out:
Syracuse
Illinois
Illinois St

Nevada and Middle Tennessee can still complicate things.

Also in bracketing Wichita St....I think they're a likely 8/9 seed at this point. About a 50/50 chance between going to @Salt Lake City/Gonzaga or @Tulsa/Kansas. It might depend on exactly where WSU falls. If they're the highest 8 seed or 9 seed, say hello to Kansas. In my current bracket, they're the last 8 seed and the Tulsa spot got filled, so I have the following:

@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) North Dakota
8) Wichita St vs. 9) Arkansas

with FSU/Minnesota in the sweet 16 and Oregon/Florida in the elite 8.

Other than the distance that would be a gr8 draw for WSU.....I keep looking for a way for Ill St to get in but I dont think it will happen. The Murray St and Tulsa losses are going to push them to the NIT. The way this has played out, I think the Palm was right, WSU may very well have been on the outside with a loss last Sunday....which is a shame and a sham.

Yuck. I would be pissed if we draw Gonzaga again.

Entering today I have ISUr as my last team in (ahead of KSU).

Birds need to root hard for Davidson to win today (followed by a loss tomorrow to VCU) - I still don't think they'd jump URI, but there's a chance this scenario would allow it. Chalk winning in the Mountain West, CUSA and Sun Belt would also be nice for them.

Gonna be close.

Play Angry wrote:Yuck. I would be pissed if we draw Gonzaga again.

Entering today I have ISUr as my last team in (ahead of KSU).

Birds need to root hard for Davidson to win today (followed by a loss tomorrow to VCU) - I still don't think they'd jump URI, but there's a chance this scenario would allow it. Chalk winning in the Mountain West, CUSA and Sun Belt would also be nice for them.

Gonna be close.

Why you wouldnt want the weakest #1 seed in your 8/9 line is a little nutty to me but to each his own. I'm still hopeful for the 6/7 seed we deserve but I dont see it.

BlueChipShock wrote:

Play Angry wrote:Yuck. I would be pissed if we draw Gonzaga again.

Entering today I have ISUr as my last team in (ahead of KSU).

Birds need to root hard for Davidson to win today (followed by a loss tomorrow to VCU) - I still don't think they'd jump URI, but there's a chance this scenario would allow it. Chalk winning in the Mountain West, CUSA and Sun Belt would also be nice for them.

Gonna be close.

Why you wouldnt want the weakest #1 seed in your 8/9 line is a little nutty to me but to each his own. I'm still hopeful for the 6/7 seed we deserve but I dont see it.

I don't think Gonzaga is the weakest. That's probably going to be KU.

Stickboy46 wrote:

BlueChipShock wrote:

Play Angry wrote:Yuck. I would be pissed if we draw Gonzaga again.

Entering today I have ISUr as my last team in (ahead of KSU).

Birds need to root hard for Davidson to win today (followed by a loss tomorrow to VCU) - I still don't think they'd jump URI, but there's a chance this scenario would allow it. Chalk winning in the Mountain West, CUSA and Sun Belt would also be nice for them.

Gonna be close.

Why you wouldnt want the weakest #1 seed in your 8/9 line is a little nutty to me but to each his own. I'm still hopeful for the 6/7 seed we deserve but I dont see it.

I don't think Gonzaga is the weakest. That's probably going to be KU.

Gonzaga is the most efficient 1 seed in the field, no thanks. We can beat anyone but I'll take the strongest odds every time.

Kansas is the matchup we want if we are relegated to a 8/9. Lots of other favorable matchups if we are a 7/10.

I've still got ISUr as my last team in the field, and there's only one game tomorrow with any potential to impact their chances (URI vs. VCU).

I have the Rams ahead of the Birds regardless of outcome there, though reasonable minds could certainly disagree. Good luck tomorrow Redbirds - I think you're in but it's basically a coin flip.

It will be close but we are all hopeful.