Selection Sunday questions

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Selection Sunday questions

Postby MVCfans » March 12th, 2017, 8:52 am

5 toughest decisions facing the NCAA tournament selection committee

Where should Wichita State be seeded?

A year ago, the committee struggled to decide whether Wichita State belonged in the field or not. This year, it’s the Shockers’ seeding that could pose problems for similar reasons.

Assessing Wichita State is again unusually difficult because the Shockers (30-4) could be one of the best teams in the country even if they don’t have many marquee wins as validation.

On one hand, Wichita State assembled an aggressive non-conference schedule featuring five games against name-brand opponents. On the other hand, the Shockers lost to Louisville, Michigan State and Oklahoma State and didn’t prove much by beating rebuilding Oklahoma and woeful LSU.

On one hand, Wichita State ripped through the Valley, winning 20 of 21 games against league opponents by an average of 21.5 points apiece. On the other hand, the Valley is down this year and features only one other top-100 team.

On one hand, history is on Wichita State’s side: The Shockers have won nine NCAA tournament games the past four seasons, including five as the lesser-seeded team. On the other hand, history shouldn’t matter: The selection committee is instructed to consider only this season’s results.

Even the most prominent computer metrics aren’t much help. The RPI, which ignores margin of victory, ranks the Shockers 29th. KenPom, which does take margin of victory into account, has the Shockers 8th.

The challenge for the selection committee is to find a way to seed Wichita State that’s fair to both the Shockers and their opponents. How would you like to be the No. 7 seed who oddsmakers anoint a five-point underdog against the Shockers in round one? Or the No. 2 seed who’s facing a top-10 KenPom opponent in round two?

So where should Wichita State be seeded? A No. 6 or 7 seed feels most fair. That’s as close as the committee can come to finding a spot on the bracket that doesn’t ignore the Shockers’ top-10 KenPom ranking or the blemishes on their résumé.


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Selection Sunday questions

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Re: Selection Sunday questions

Postby MVCfans » March 12th, 2017, 8:54 am

Assessing the final contenders for NCAA tournament bids
OUT

38. Illinois State | 26-6 | RPI: 33 | SOS: 125 | T50: 1-2 | T100: 2-4 | R/N: 12-6

The Redbirds haven’t lost to a team not named Wichita State since December. On the other hand, they have precisely one top-140 win since December, and have just two top-125 wins all season. It’s really tough to leave a team like Illinois State out, especially with all the program has been through in recent years, but ISU probably needed to go 27-5 or 28-4 against this schedule to get in. When you don’t play many high-profile games, you can’t afford to lose to teams like San Francisco, Tulsa and Murray State in non-conference play.


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Re: Selection Sunday questions

Postby Redhawk » March 12th, 2017, 10:41 am

MVCfans wrote:Assessing the final contenders for NCAA tournament bids
OUT

38. Illinois State | 26-6 | RPI: 33 | SOS: 125 | T50: 1-2 | T100: 2-4 | R/N: 12-6

The Redbirds haven’t lost to a team not named Wichita State since December. On the other hand, they have precisely one top-140 win since December, and have just two top-125 wins all season. It’s really tough to leave a team like Illinois State out, especially with all the program has been through in recent years, but ISU probably needed to go 27-5 or 28-4 against this schedule to get in. When you don’t play many high-profile games, you can’t afford to lose to teams like San Francisco, Tulsa and Murray State in non-conference play.


https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/march ... 57869.html


That pretty much sums it up for the Birds. I truly believe though that even if ISUr had not blown games late
Against Murray St and Tulsa they would still be left out. As stated so many times these type of wins don't help a resume at all but they can sure kill it!
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Re: Selection Sunday questions

Postby TheAsianSensation » March 12th, 2017, 11:07 am

My Wichita St seeding philosophy:

Have to seed them behind teams like Iowa St, Creighton, Purdue, teams with solid credentials, multiple quality wins, etc. I'm also likely to seed power conference teams who have piled up quality wins to mask a flaw. Think Michigan, Maryland, Miami and VaTech, teams who established themselves enough times over the year. Wichita is kind of a bridge between the lockbox teams and the bubble teams.

I have Wichita behind St Mary's, although that can be argued. WSU behind Cincy and SMU based on what they did on the court. Wichita ahead of Middle Tennessee. Ahead of VCU and Dayton who have a couple flaws.

This year, that division falls on the 8 line.
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Re: Selection Sunday questions

Postby TheObserver » March 12th, 2017, 11:13 am

Not that I can fault your reasoning TAS, but if our Valley-biased bracketologist can only muster up an 8 for WSU, then I think it's safe to say that WSU is squarely a 10 from the actual committee.
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Re: Selection Sunday questions

Postby Stickboy46 » March 12th, 2017, 11:48 am

If WSU is seeded 8 ..be prepared for an outcry from the 1 seed. WSU would be favored according to KenPom against 50% of the potential 1 seeds.
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Re: Selection Sunday questions

Postby bigdawg » March 12th, 2017, 12:26 pm

7 Creighton vs 10 Wichita St

Book it. The committee loves doing stuff like this.
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Re: Selection Sunday questions

Postby sixth ace » March 12th, 2017, 12:36 pm

bigdawg wrote:7 Creighton vs 10 Wichita St

Book it. The committee loves doing stuff like this.


McDermott would pee down his leg if it is the matchup

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Re: Selection Sunday questions

Postby TheAsianSensation » March 12th, 2017, 1:09 pm

bigdawg wrote:7 Creighton vs 10 Wichita St

Book it. The committee loves doing stuff like this.

No they don't. The committee doesn't rig matchups. They select teams based on geographical preference. The most likely thing to happen is that a random 7 seed who's located very near Wichita will be the opponent, since they'd have similar travel preferences

oh crap that's Creighton too
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Re: Selection Sunday questions

Postby bigdawg » March 12th, 2017, 1:35 pm

TheAsianSensation wrote:
bigdawg wrote:7 Creighton vs 10 Wichita St

Book it. The committee loves doing stuff like this.

No they don't. The committee doesn't rig matchups. They select teams based on geographical preference. The most likely thing to happen is that a random 7 seed who's located very near Wichita will be the opponent, since they'd have similar travel preferences

oh crap that's Creighton too

If the shoe fits.
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Re: Selection Sunday questions

Postby bigdawg » March 12th, 2017, 4:13 pm

My gawd.... screwed.
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Re: Selection Sunday questions

Postby TheAsianSensation » March 12th, 2017, 4:23 pm

TheObserver wrote:Not that I can fault your reasoning TAS, but if our Valley-biased bracketologist can only muster up an 8 for WSU, then I think it's safe to say that WSU is squarely a 10 from the actual committee.

lol
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