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TheAsianSensation wrote:I think the dangerous assumption is that the cupcake games would be the ones to go away. I highly doubt that. Home non-con games are going to be precious. You need the revenue from those games.

With the addition of one road game by going from 18 to 20, you'll find teams more likely NOT to take a road buy game, to protect a home gate.

But you can't have it both ways. In you post you say schools have to schedule up to get an at-large, and in the next you say they won't get rid of home cupcakes. Which is it?

squirrel wrote:

TheAsianSensation wrote:I think the dangerous assumption is that the cupcake games would be the ones to go away. I highly doubt that. Home non-con games are going to be precious. You need the revenue from those games.

With the addition of one road game by going from 18 to 20, you'll find teams more likely NOT to take a road buy game, to protect a home gate.

This. At least with 9 teams and 16 games you can offset the empty calories from cupcakes with additional tougher games.

With 20 league games, you have fewer slots to fill, and you're going to have to give a lot in order to be able to take anything worthwhile. And the dangerous thing here is the potential for more non-DI games, and that's bad for the rep, even if it doesn't count.

That also assume you are going to go out and find 4 better games every year than what you are adding.

havoc wrote:

TheAsianSensation wrote:I think the dangerous assumption is that the cupcake games would be the ones to go away. I highly doubt that. Home non-con games are going to be precious. You need the revenue from those games.

With the addition of one road game by going from 18 to 20, you'll find teams more likely NOT to take a road buy game, to protect a home gate.

But you can't have it both ways. In you post you say schools have to schedule up to get an at-large, and in the next you say they won't get rid of home cupcakes. Which is it?

That's why he is saying this is a potential disaster. He's not saying both are possible together. It's a Catch-22. He's saying one needs to happen, but schools depend on x number of home games for their bottom line. Something's got to give.

So the solution is more non-DI home games, which isn't good for anyone (except the non-DI's).

TheAsianSensation wrote:I think the dangerous assumption is that the cupcake games would be the ones to go away. I highly doubt that. Home non-con games are going to be precious. You need the revenue from those games.

With the addition of one road game by going from 18 to 20, you'll find teams more likely NOT to take a road buy game, to protect a home gate.

havoc wrote:

TheAsianSensation wrote:I think the dangerous assumption is that the cupcake games would be the ones to go away. I highly doubt that. Home non-con games are going to be precious. You need the revenue from those games.

With the addition of one road game by going from 18 to 20, you'll find teams more likely NOT to take a road buy game, to protect a home gate.

But you can't have it both ways. In you post you say schools have to schedule up to get an at-large, and in the next you say they won't get rid of home cupcakes. Which is it?

Both are possible. Every team in the country plays 1 or 2 cupcakes. That's fine. When the number gets to 4 or 5, that's the big problem.

And if we go to 20, I worry that the also-rans of the league will protect 3rd and 4th cupcakes over other games.

havoc wrote:
That also assume you are going to go out and find 4 better games every year than what you are adding.

It's a lot easier if you HAVE to AND you go on the road.

The biggest issues with scheduling right now is coaches getting trigger shy on games because they a) don't NEED to take...IOW unnecessary risk, or b) to fulfill a bottom line of x number home games (the additional league games will offset this by at least 1), c) involve playing a game on the road, where your odds of success exponentially decrease.

There are great games and opportunities presented every year, and its usually paranoid coaches and their egos that result in them not happening. Now that's not saying they'll magically happen, but think back to Muller's posturing...it's doubtful he ever even considered calling Duke or Oregon. Instead he probably selected schools to name that are pretty close to our peers, and he probably wanted to set the terms to play them. In other words, they were most likely empty words, and his efforts seemed rather trivial to the point he was trying to make.

The problem here is the setup will require coaches lay off their paranoia and ego. I don't have confidence in the league's members to fulfill such an obligation.

squirrel wrote:
That's why he is saying this is a potential disaster. He's not saying both are possible together. It's a Catch-22. He's saying one needs to happen, but schools depend on x number of home games for their bottom line. Something's got to give.

So the solution is more non-DI home games, which isn't good for anyone (except the non-DI's).

It is one additional mandated home and road games each year. Most Valley schools are already playing a non-DI home game. Remove that one and play Valpo/Murray at home. Most Valley schools are also playing a Valpo/Murray type team on the road in the non-con now. Instead of playing that game in November, now it is play in February.

I fail to see how adding 2 more conference games against non-SWAC level competition somehow now makes the sky start falling.

One reason I do not like 20 game conference schedule is that it keeps losses in the conference. I know the Valley has struggled recently, but the benefit of beating Non conference teams can help move your conference up in the conference rankings. Beating each other up doesn't really move the needle for the conference.

The math starts to become a problem.
Currently the league plays roughly 120 non-conference games 90 conference games.
With 11 and a 20 game schedule that becomes 110 non-conference and 110 conference games.

Just for argument sake say the average is 1.5 cupcake games currently per team.
That means: 105 "quality" non-conference games, 15 cupcakes and 90 conference games currently.

At 11 playing 20 games again averaging 1.5 cupcakes and rounding down.
94 "quality" non-conference games, 16 cupcakes and 110 conference games.

That starts skewing RPI and power ratings.

TheAsianSensation wrote:

havoc wrote:

TheAsianSensation wrote:I think the dangerous assumption is that the cupcake games would be the ones to go away. I highly doubt that. Home non-con games are going to be precious. You need the revenue from those games.

With the addition of one road game by going from 18 to 20, you'll find teams more likely NOT to take a road buy game, to protect a home gate.

But you can't have it both ways. In you post you say schools have to schedule up to get an at-large, and in the next you say they won't get rid of home cupcakes. Which is it?

Both are possible. Every team in the country plays 1 or 2 cupcakes. That's fine. When the number gets to 4 or 5, that's the big problem.

And if we go to 20, I worry that the also-rans of the league will protect 3rd and 4th cupcakes over other games.

But what is the difference? Evansville played Austin Peay (261) on the road this year. Drake played UMKC (184). Bradley played Eastern Illinois (265). Indiana State played Valpo (71), Northern Illinois (239), and Ball State (169). I'm sure most of the rest of the Valley played similar non-conference road games. Those are the games that get eliminated. Is that such a terrible thing?