uniguy wrote:5.) Missouri State- I know many of the prognosticators are high on these guys, but I have a tough time having faith in a Paul Lusk team until they show me something. Yes, Alize Johnson is a BEAST, but this is a team that went 7-11 last year and had to use the RPI tiebreaker to (barely) get avoid Thursday over Bradley. I don't understand why everyone thinks they are the favorites. Do they have a big influx of talent (honestly asking....I don't follow recruiting closely)? Otherwise, I have a hard time seeing them on top. I hope they prove me wrong....a strong MSU would be a coup for the MVC.
I think your skepticism about MSU is reasonable given Lusk's history of underachieving; he is the big question mark for most MSU fans when looking at this team. I'm not a Lusk fan, so I have my own concerns about what this team will do. But if I was making a case for MSU and took the stance that Lusk will be a neutral factor, then this is what I'd base my case on their winning on. First they were a young team last year with the majority of their top players having either none or 1 year of D-1 experience. Second they were 11-4, 2-0 MVC with a road win at UNI when they lost pg Ronnie Rousseau for the season. Some will tell you he was the most talented player we had [ was averaging 11.6 pts, 48% fg, 39% 3pt, 80% ft] . Despite that when you look at how we played against this years projected other top teams, we split with LOC, beat UNI 2 of 3, and lost both to ISUr, one in OT on the road and the other by 1 pt , all but the first game against UNI w/o Rousseau. So clearly we were very competitive and on paper have as much or more back than any of those teams. That includes Johnson, jrs Dixon[8.6 pts] Church,[ 64% fg , league leader in block shots] and wings 6'4 Kreklow and 6"6 Rhodes who both averaged about 7 pts and shot 42% and 39% respectively from the trey line.
Recruiting on the surface appears ok with the additions of 2 freshman , 6'0 pg Lawrence [ who was offered by Clemson before going to a year of prep school] and 6'11 Scott, and 2 jucos , 6'7 Fofana [ a Church clone with limited offense but eye popping athleticism] and 6'8 Scurry [ a double/double guy in juco ] . But here's where I think we really add some talent. You have to add 6'5 rs frosh Greg "Boogie" Williams who was a top 150 recruit , and both Rousseau [ who will return] and graduate transfer 6'4 JT Miller from Howard who averaged right at 15 ppg last year including a couple 30 pt games [ one against Georgetown]. While many teams are adding some solid recruits who no doubt will help, Rousseau and Miller represent 2 proven D-1 double digit scorers added to the mix for the Bears.
So that's the case for the Bears, a pretty loaded roster with a highly questionable Head Coach. I think a case can be made either way and have some justification for anywhere from 1st to 6th.
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