Order of finish with Murray & Valpo included

[BEARZ77]

Like I said, I will not make the mistake of doubting Jake's ability to win in this league even when it doesn't seem as likely. And he does especially well when he has a core of returning players well versed in his system which he has enough of this year. But I also think the first halves of the last two seasons weren't aberrations; you still had to beat UNI[ they don't give away games like say, we do] but I also think that if you played a decent game you were going to win against that roster. When I get around to it, I won't pick them low, but it won't surprise me as it would have in other years if they struggle to be in the top 3-4. But I'll probably pick them there out of healthy respect for the leagues best coach.

As far as Bradley, I think they're a year away, but that doesn't mean they won't be challenging for upper third to half this year. I like what their coach was doing last year.

[IllinoisState]

I'm really puzzled by the Illinois State love here. They had their best year in two decades playing against the youngest and worst Valley in forever, lost every key contributor except Fayne and are still coached by Dan Muller. I have no doubt that they'll be a top 4 team but they aren't an unquestioned favorite.

I don't trust Paul Lusk at all regardless of the talent he's got. Alize Johnson would have be a lottery pick playing for Marshall or Jacobson.

UNI is UNI. Continue to look at the roster and make light of it because we know its a program that takes elite talent to win. I mean look at Jake's best teams. Farokhmanesh, O'Rear, Moran, Ahelegbe, Dunham, MItchell, Bohannon, Jesperson, Buss, Tuttle. I mean just elite athletes all over the floor.

Loylola's got talent and Porter is so disorganized defensively that they're hard to play against. He doesn't seem to know what he's doing on that end other than overplaying passing lanes and that causes just enough of an issue with the talent he's got to be effective.

Bradley will be better again. Year 3 is usually where you see a program take that next step and I don't question the talent that Wardle has brought in. I think he's trending the right way.

Valpo and Murray State are going to figure out the grind of the Valley, even in a bad year, is a significant step up from the leagues they were in, especially Murray. Valpo lost Peters and Murray is iffy in the coaching department.

SIU lost a lot from a .500 team. I think Barry has taken them about as far as he can but did save the program after the smoldering crater that Lowery left behind.

Indiana State and Evansville weren't good and don't appear to be any better. Indiana State has no resources so it's impossible to tell if Lansing caught lightning in a bottle with Odum and got lucky or if he's just not very good. I've soured on him the last couple of years. Marty is still at Evansville, we'll leave it there.

Drake made the right hire, I think, he's just got so much to deal with and so much to dig out of that you can't even start evaluating him until year 3.

1-UNI
2-Missouri State
3-Illinois State
4-Loyola
5-Bradley
6-Valparaiso
7-Southern Illinois
8-Murray State
9-Evansville
10-Indiana State
11-Drake

The top 3 are darn near interchangeable but I always give the edge to coaching in this league.

I think that's a weak argument against ISU, but to humor that thought, with the exception of UNI no one's OOC SOS was anything. I understand UNI having problems with their noncon schedule, but that's all for any of the other Valley teams.

Team, noncon record, noncon SOS.

SIU 7-6 238
UNI 5-6 16
Loyola 10-3 280
MSU 9-3 325
Bradley 5-8 142
Evansville 9-4 225
Indiana State 6-6 105
Drake 2-10 257

This includes DII wins

You really think those teams can make a push to be the top team?

[mvfcfan]

I personally don't think ILST is going to be very good next year either. This past year they were barely squeaking out wins late in the season against MVC teams. They're also losing almost everyone on that roster that was really good.

This is also a team that had all these good players and would either shoot lights out for one half and then not make anything the next half (like against UCF) or they were a team that couldn't make a shot the entire game (like against Wichita in the championship game). I can't imagine the scrubs that were on the bench this past season will be any better.

[uniftw]

Yet you picked your Panthers second. Based on what exactly, other than being a homer?

Lose only 2 players (yes, Morgan is a big loss)
If we get to brag about freshman coming in, like ISUr does then Tywhon Pickford
Finished 3rd last year with 4 freshman seeing significant PT
Wyatt Lohuas is back from his injury
Ben Jacobson

[Redhawk]

I personally don't think ILST is going to be very good next year either. This past year they were barely squeaking out wins late in the season against MVC teams. They're also losing almost everyone on that roster that was really good.

This is also a team that had all these good players and would either shoot lights out for one half and then not make anything the next half (like against UCF) or they were a team that couldn't make a shot the entire game (like against Wichita in the championship game). I can't imagine the scrubs that were on the bench this past season will be any better.

Worst 17-1 team EVER! Thanks for your invaluable opinion...on LAST years team!

Pay closer attention to recruiting. It matters a lot more than what "scrubs" were on your bench last year.

[IllinoisState]

I personally don't think ILST is going to be very good next year either. This past year they were barely squeaking out wins late in the season against MVC teams. They're also losing almost everyone on that roster that was really good.

This is also a team that had all these good players and would either shoot lights out for one half and then not make anything the next half (like against UCF) or they were a team that couldn't make a shot the entire game (like against Wichita in the championship game). I can't imagine the scrubs that were on the bench this past season will be any better.

But the scrubs who couldn't finish over .500 on other teams will be amazing.

[BCPanther]

I personally don't think ILST is going to be very good next year either. This past year they were barely squeaking out wins late in the season against MVC teams. They're also losing almost everyone on that roster that was really good.

This is also a team that had all these good players and would either shoot lights out for one half and then not make anything the next half (like against UCF) or they were a team that couldn't make a shot the entire game (like against Wichita in the championship game). I can't imagine the scrubs that were on the bench this past season will be any better.

Worst 17-1 team EVER! Thanks for your invaluable opinion...on LAST years team!

Pay closer attention to recruiting. It matters a lot more than what "scrubs" were on your bench last year.

Actually, yes. Look at the history of the league and the other teams that went 17-1.

Recruiting is very good, but you still aren't Kentucky. Kids at this level, no matter how highly regarded, just typically aren't consistent enough to say you can build a champion around them. Nobody is recruiting Wichita level talent.

[Redhawk]

Worst 17-1 team EVER! Thanks for your invaluable opinion...on LAST years team!

Pay closer attention to recruiting. It matters a lot more than what "scrubs" were on your bench last year.

Actually, yes. Look at the history of the league and the other teams that went 17-1.

Recruiting is very good, but you still aren't Kentucky. Kids at this level, no matter how highly regarded, just typically aren't consistent enough to say you can build a champion around them. Nobody is recruiting Wichita level talent.

Okay...fair enough. ISUr was the worst 17-1 team ever then. Still gave your Panthers their
worst home defeat EVER!

As for this year's team...only one freshman (Clarance) should be a major factor.
The other key players are not kids.

[uniftw]

Still gave your Panthers their worst home defeat EVER!

If I had to bet on that, without looking, I'd say you're wrong.

It's also one of the best ISUr teams ever and one of the worst UNI teams in 2 decades.

EDIT

Looked it up... I looked at the largest losses in the MVC era and got through about 4 games on the list and found at least one. At that point I stopped looking. No need to go further than that, or look at OOC games because your statement is 100% wrong

[Redhawk]

one of the worst UNI teams in 2 decades.

Same team you picked to win this year with the same players
except replace Morgan with Lohaus. Blind homerism?