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The goal for a conference is to get your conference games high enough on average that the team that wins the regular season has a hand full of top 50 or so wins. then if the second place team does the same, you start winning those blind side-by-side comparisons (which is the time when the big $$ conferences change the criteria to something else that benefits them). That means that in the OOC, teams can play an OOC conference schedule that works for them that season without the pressure to win every OOC game as if your season depends upon it.

Here’s some blind resumes I put together. Spoiler: Loyola is one of them.

A
Q1: 5-6
Q2: 6-5
Q3 and Q4 losses: 1
SOS: 7

B
Q1: 1-2
Q2: 2-1
Q3 and Q4 losses: 2
SOS: 156

C
Q1: 1-1
Q2: 2-1
Q3 and Q4 losses: 2
SOS: 162

D
Q1: 4-2
Q2: 4-2
Q3 and Q4 losses: 2
SOS: 87

E
Q1: 3-3
Q2: 1-1
Q3 and Q4 losses: 1
SOS: 94

F
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 5-0
Q3 and Q4 losses: 4
SOS: 9

G
Q1: 1-1
Q2: 2-2
Q3 and Q4 losses: 2
SOS: 128

AndShock wrote:Here’s some blind resumes I put together. Spoiler: Loyola is one of them.

A
Q1: 5-6
Q2: 6-5
Q3 and Q4 losses: 1
SOS: 7

B
Q1: 1-2
Q2: 2-1
Q3 and Q4 losses: 2
SOS: 156

C
Q1: 1-1
Q2: 2-1
Q3 and Q4 losses: 2
SOS: 162

D
Q1: 4-2
Q2: 4-2
Q3 and Q4 losses: 2
SOS: 87

E
Q1: 3-3
Q2: 1-1
Q3 and Q4 losses: 1
SOS: 94

F
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 5-0
Q3 and Q4 losses: 4
SOS: 9

G
Q1: 1-1
Q2: 2-2
Q3 and Q4 losses: 2
SOS: 128

C is St. Mary's (currently slotted as an at large 10 seed by Lunardi), E is Middle Tennessee (currently slotted as an 11 seed auto bid by Lunardi, but probably able to survive a conference tournament final loss), and G is Loyola (currently slotted as a 12 seed only if they win the MVC tournament final). A is Alabama (17--12 overall, 8-8 in SEC going into tonight's game w/ Florida, and a 9 seed in Lunardi's latest bracket projection), B is New Mexico State (12 seed auto bid), D is St. Bonaventure, F is Temple (RPI 40, somewhere below the next four out).

Ya I think the biggest conclusion you can draw from the resumes is that St. Mary's is pretty overrated right now. I would not be surprised to see them left out of the tournament. I don't think St. Mary's has much of an argument over the other current auto bids that are slotted around a 12 seed.

In general I see LUC and St. Mary resume to be similar, so then you look for differences and here is where I see St. Mary resume is superior:

1. Superior Q1 victory (Gonzaga)
2. Superior Q2 victory (50 RPI win vs 87)
3. Predictive metrics better (24 vs 55)

The biggest thing that LUC will be held against them is their non-conference schedule. You have little control over conference you play in, but you do have control of non-conference.

LUC non-conference SOS = 258
St. Mary non-conference SOS = 178

If I was St. Mary I wouldn't be feeling very comfortable with their position right now.

The one thing LUC does have going for it is they have won their conference title. Sometime the selection committee does put more weight to that.

How to game RPI = schedule the best teams that you know you can beat. But that may or may not work next year depending if the NCAA actually moves away from RPI.

Great article here for Loyola...
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/co ... ssion=true

Last year at this time I shared emails with the now gone Michigan State AD who was selection committee chair. Pleading for the Birds...didn't work. It is so biased!

If you don't win the MVC tournament Loyola fans, it's going to be a long, sad week unfortunately.

I think the Ramblers will dance and represent a major metropolitan area(even if they don't win the tourney).
They bring a good story also of working their way to the top.

If St. Bonaventure loses too then Loyola has no chance if they lose as well.

Unless everything goes perfectly, which it never does, Ramblers wont be dancing.....I would put the odds at about 4-5%.

Redbirds4Life wrote:Unless everything goes perfectly, which it never does, Ramblers wont be dancing.....I would put the odds at about 4-5%.

I assume you mean IF they don't win this weekend?