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Re: Goal #1: Become Multi-Bid Conf. Again

PostPosted: February 27th, 2018, 6:57 pm
by Snaggletooth
In general I see LUC and St. Mary resume to be similar, so then you look for differences and here is where I see St. Mary resume is superior:

1. Superior Q1 victory (Gonzaga)
2. Superior Q2 victory (50 RPI win vs 87)
3. Predictive metrics better (24 vs 55)

The biggest thing that LUC will be held against them is their non-conference schedule. You have little control over conference you play in, but you do have control of non-conference.

LUC non-conference SOS = 258
St. Mary non-conference SOS = 178

If I was St. Mary I wouldn't be feeling very comfortable with their position right now.

The one thing LUC does have going for it is they have won their conference title. Sometime the selection committee does put more weight to that.

How to game RPI = schedule the best teams that you know you can beat. But that may or may not work next year depending if the NCAA actually moves away from RPI.

Re: Goal #1: Become Multi-Bid Conf. Again

PostPosted: February 27th, 2018, 10:05 pm
by BirdsEyeView
Great article here for Loyola...
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/co ... ssion=true

Last year at this time I shared emails with the now gone Michigan State AD who was selection committee chair. Pleading for the Birds...didn't work. It is so biased!

If you don't win the MVC tournament Loyola fans, it's going to be a long, sad week unfortunately.

Re: Goal #1: Become Multi-Bid Conf. Again

PostPosted: February 28th, 2018, 5:45 am
by musiccitybulldog
I think the Ramblers will dance and represent a major metropolitan area(even if they don't win the tourney).
They bring a good story also of working their way to the top.

Re: Goal #1: Become Multi-Bid Conf. Again

PostPosted: February 28th, 2018, 10:44 am
by IllinoisState
If St. Bonaventure loses too then Loyola has no chance if they lose as well.

Re: Goal #1: Become Multi-Bid Conf. Again

PostPosted: February 28th, 2018, 4:04 pm
by Redbirds4Life
Unless everything goes perfectly, which it never does, Ramblers wont be dancing.....I would put the odds at about 4-5%.

Re: Goal #1: Become Multi-Bid Conf. Again

PostPosted: February 28th, 2018, 4:15 pm
by BirdsEyeView
Redbirds4Life wrote:Unless everything goes perfectly, which it never does, Ramblers wont be dancing.....I would put the odds at about 4-5%.


I assume you mean IF they don't win this weekend?

Re: Goal #1: Become Multi-Bid Conf. Again

PostPosted: March 7th, 2018, 8:15 am
by PurpleAcesFootball
Congratulations to Loyola.

The rest of the conference? It doesn’t look like anyone else will make the postseason. (Pay did play C-level notwithstanding.)

That is not a good sign at all. That is the profile of a low-major conference. Hopefully it’s a one-year blip and will not repeat.

Additionally the conference should pay attention to where LUC gets seeded. A #12 or better has a shot at winning a game. If the MVC champ were to be seeded 13/14/15 would make things extremely tough to get that extra payday for a conference win.

Re: Goal #1: Become Multi-Bid Conf. Again

PostPosted: March 7th, 2018, 12:18 pm
by BuBrave2006
PurpleAcesFootball wrote:Additionally the conference should pay attention to where LUC gets seeded. A #12 or better has a shot at winning a game. If the MVC champ were to be seeded 13/14/15 would make things extremely tough to get that extra payday for a conference win.


There is a 0% chance Loyola gets a 13 seed or worse (okay...a sub 5% chance). They are likely a 12 or 11 and have a shot at a 10 if some teams in front of them lose.

Re: Goal #1: Become Multi-Bid Conf. Again

PostPosted: March 7th, 2018, 12:54 pm
by PurpleAcesFootball
BuBrave2006 wrote:
PurpleAcesFootball wrote:Additionally the conference should pay attention to where LUC gets seeded. A #12 or better has a shot at winning a game. If the MVC champ were to be seeded 13/14/15 would make things extremely tough to get that extra payday for a conference win.


There is a 0% chance Loyola gets a 13 seed or worse (okay...a sub 5% chance). They are likely a 12 or 11 and have a shot at a 10 if some teams in front of them lose.


Sorry for the confusion. I mixed two thoughts together. I agree with your take on Loyola's seed.

Where would an MVC Tourney Champ other than Loyola been seeded? That is what I meant by a possible 13, 14, or 15. Take Bradley for example. Currently between Lipscomb (A-Sun) and Iona (MAAC) in the RPI, and well below Wright State (Horizon). Bradley would have better wins than those teams, but would still be in the comparison based on record.

That is what the MVC wouldn't want.

Re: Goal #1: Become Multi-Bid Conf. Again

PostPosted: March 7th, 2018, 2:12 pm
by BCPanther
PurpleAcesFootball wrote:
BuBrave2006 wrote:
PurpleAcesFootball wrote:Additionally the conference should pay attention to where LUC gets seeded. A #12 or better has a shot at winning a game. If the MVC champ were to be seeded 13/14/15 would make things extremely tough to get that extra payday for a conference win.


There is a 0% chance Loyola gets a 13 seed or worse (okay...a sub 5% chance). They are likely a 12 or 11 and have a shot at a 10 if some teams in front of them lose.


Sorry for the confusion. I mixed two thoughts together. I agree with your take on Loyola's seed.

Where would an MVC Tourney Champ other than Loyola been seeded? That is what I meant by a possible 13, 14, or 15. Take Bradley for example. Currently between Lipscomb (A-Sun) and Iona (MAAC) in the RPI, and well below Wright State (Horizon). Bradley would have better wins than those teams, but would still be in the comparison based on record.

That is what the MVC wouldn't want.


The lowest seed in the last 15 years is a 14 (UNI in 04 after finishing tied for 2nd). The Valley is never going to have a tournament where a 9 seed sneaks through and wins and torpedoes a seed. The league will always be in that 11-13 range for the vast majority of our champions.

The Horizon was damn close to havning their champ sent to Dayton and a play in game. I just never see that scenario happening in the Valley.