VUGrad1314 wrote:Still, NMSU is far and away the strongest hoops brand and has been for a long time and most of your material predates NMSU's bowl season this year. I think the fact that their football program is showing signs of life is a big step forward for their MWC fortunes especially with the league down a bit in football. I don't get the strong preference for UTEP over NMSU when 1. UTEP and NMSU are basically looked upon as being part of the same media market and 2. It's been a long time since UTEP has significantly outperformed NMSU athletically even in football. In fact, the Aggies have been as strong or stronger for several years now. The problem before was that NMSU had nothing to sell in the conference's flagship sport; but now with the bowl bid that does not appear to be the case anymore. Furthermore, it appears that the focus for the MWC is not solely on football for this round of expansion, but also on increasing their hoops profile to go after at-large bids. Until recently, the MWC had no trouble getting at-large bids, so there wasn't much push to add strong basketball schools especially if they were terrible at football; but the MWC is surely struggling in that department now. No program under consideration helps the MWC more in this regard than NMSU.
You're completely ignoring everything that actually matters.
NMSU football has now been to 1 bowl game since 1960....which they achieved by literally the minimum standard by going 6-6 and they had to win 3 of their last 4, including their final 2 to get there. Those wins were:
Texas State - who was FCS just 4 years ago and is historically as bad as NMSU. They are 2-10 this year and 7-29 the last 3
Idaho - who is moving FCS next year and has been playing with about 68 scholarship players in preparation for the move, has 4 wins or less in 6 of the last 7 years with 3 of those being 1 win seasons. Over those 7 years Idaho is 22-32 and 9 of those wins came in 2016 as part of their "rally against the decision to move FCS" team. Which fell flat on it's face to a 4-8 record again this year.
South Alabama - a program that didn't exist until halfway through Obama's first term in office. Since becoming a full time football program South Alabama is 29-46 and has never had a winning season.
Looking at NMSU roster - they extremely senior laden
Their QB is a senior - threw for 3800 yards and 26 td in 11 games. In the last two years he's close to 6,500 yards and 50 TDs. He owns the career passing yardage record, 2nd in pass attempt record and completion record, 3rd in career completion %, 2nd in TD, 2nd most 200 yard passing games, 2nd most 300 yard passing games
Their leading rusher - who accounted for over half the carries and 70% of the yards is gone. If you add every ball carrier up from the last 2 years combined at NMSU they don't equal the guy that is graduating. He is top 2 in pretty much every rushing category in NMSU history.
Leading WR and 3rd leading WR are both gone after this year. Those two accounting for over half their receiver production. The 2nd WR is a JR.
3 starting OL were seniors this year and a 4th is a JR
Defensively they lose their best player and while they do return a bunch...they are all JRs. Something like 95% of this years defensive stats are gone by the end of next year.
They wouldn't be top 10 in attendance in the FCS. Heck, they'd be middle of the road in the MVFC most years
It isn't unreasonable to think they don't get to 6 wins again next year. That's been playing in the SBC and WAC they haven't gotten to 6 wins. They'd be a 2 win MWC team. They don't add TV market. They don't really add streaming numbers. UTEP isn't a great program either - and they were horrid this year - but they are historically significantly better than NMSU. Been to 5 bowl games since the turn of the century.
The politics of it will keep them out. Just as the politics, even with football, will always keep WSU from being in a conference with Kansas and Kansas State.