NCAA Tourney Bracket Predictions

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Re: NCAA Tourney Bracket Predictions

Postby DUBulldog » August 11th, 2017, 4:20 pm

BEARZ77 wrote:
Red wrote:NCAA is adopting TBT method of team advancing getting to update the bracket after each game. Love it.

Depends on how they apply it; I can see it being used to make sure the teams they want to advance get the easiest draws, while a team that got no respect in initial seeding and wins a game or two doesn't get rewarded . Example say you're a #12 and win that first game against a #5; normally you'd get a similar game against a #4, but now they redo it and you're an #8 and get a #1 in the second round. Nice reward.

You have to keep in mind that these changes usually happen when power 5 teams want an advantage. I think this will be used to constantly be relegating mids to lower levels and tougher games as the tourney progresses. Mids start low usually 9's or lower, so after round 1 they'll be relegated to 7-8s and so on. They'll never get an easier draw no matter who they beat.


I don't think this is what you think it is. Maybe this attachment will explain it better. It doesn't mean that the brackets will be redrawn, but that the winning team gets to make a show of moving their name to the next round in the bracket.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/aug/10/ncaa-march-madness-integrate-bracket-celebration-b/
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Re: NCAA Tourney Bracket Predictions

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Re: NCAA Tourney Bracket Predictions

Postby BEARZ77 » August 11th, 2017, 4:29 pm

OK , that's different than what I thought he was talking about. Jay Bilas and others have talked about wanting to re-seed the tournament as it progresses, and while in theory that sounds good, it clearly would disadvantage the mids thru-out because they are often under- valued in the initial process.
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Re: NCAA Tourney Bracket Predictions

Postby MOST » August 13th, 2017, 7:57 pm

DUBulldog wrote:
BEARZ77 wrote:
Red wrote:NCAA is adopting TBT method of team advancing getting to update the bracket after each game. Love it.

Depends on how they apply it; I can see it being used to make sure the teams they want to advance get the easiest draws, while a team that got no respect in initial seeding and wins a game or two doesn't get rewarded . Example say you're a #12 and win that first game against a #5; normally you'd get a similar game against a #4, but now they redo it and you're an #8 and get a #1 in the second round. Nice reward.

You have to keep in mind that these changes usually happen when power 5 teams want an advantage. I think this will be used to constantly be relegating mids to lower levels and tougher games as the tourney progresses. Mids start low usually 9's or lower, so after round 1 they'll be relegated to 7-8s and so on. They'll never get an easier draw no matter who they beat.




http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/aug/10/ncaa-march-madness-integrate-bracket-celebration-b/


WHAT?????? Way beyond my bracket tracking skills!
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Re: NCAA Tourney Bracket Predictions

Postby mvfcfan » August 18th, 2017, 10:22 pm

They just came out with a new bracket on ESPN bracketology. Loyola is the only team from the MVC in the projected field and they are projected to be a 15 seed playing #2 Louisville.

From the OVC Belmont is shown as a #13 seed.

This is obviously way too early, but I hope that we don't wait around so long on expansion, that Murray State thinks they are better off just staying where they are at.
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Re: NCAA Tourney Bracket Predictions

Postby Rambler63 » August 19th, 2017, 1:04 pm

Last year, the 14 seeds had RPIs of 55, 84, 88, and 135. The 15 seeds had RPIs of 150, 133, 85, and 154.

The bracketology methodology assumes that the top team for the regular season in a one-bid league also wins the conference tournament. So what they're saying is, a team that wins the MVC regular season and conference tournament is going to be a 15 seed. I don't believe that. If it comes out the way they're saying, it means a team has to be minimally around 12-6 in conference to win the league, and then go 3-0 in the tournament. Even with a weak non-conference schedule and a 7-4 record, that means the team ends with a 22-10 overall record, a conference regular season and tournament championship. No other team that had those credendials-- even from a very weak conference-- ended up as a 15 last year. They would have been a 14.

Still, it's going to be a very down year for the league unless some team breaks out and surprises and gets a couple of non-con upsets. This is a league with enough quality programs that even in a one-bid year the winner shouldn't be lower than a 12. That's what the Mountain West, Colonial, Southern, and Conference USA auto bids were last year.
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Re: NCAA Tourney Bracket Predictions

Postby TheAsianSensation » August 19th, 2017, 2:14 pm

Preseason bracketology for mid-majors is always out of whack. People always seed up the hot mid-major teams, and nowhere near all of them are going to get to their projected position by March. Further, people always fill up their at-large lines with power conference teams, because so many of the best mid-majors are projected with autobids.

Heck, he's got 8 Big 12 teams. Not enough wins to go around in that conference to get in 8. But he only projects individual teams. If he has the 8th Big 12 team with a 30% chance of making it, and he's got 3 separate A-10 teams with a 28% chance....he puts the 8th Big 12 team in even though mathematically it's much more likely the A-10 gets that 3rd team than the Big 12 gets that 8th team.

tl;dr don't trust the math on most preseason brackets. You actually have to project conferences, not teams, for the first month of the season, then switch over to teams once you have enough data points.
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Re: NCAA Tourney Bracket Predictions

Postby Aargh » August 19th, 2017, 7:24 pm

I'm afraid the Valley is going to be so even next year that the regular season champion could be something like 12-6. If that's true, then no matter who wins in St. Louis, that team would have at least 6 losses in conference play. WSU got a 10-seed last year with 1 loss in conference play, and that was to a team rated higher than any Valley teams project for this season. A 14 or 15 seed could be the result.
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Re: NCAA Tourney Bracket Predictions

Postby glm38 » August 20th, 2017, 6:26 am

Aargh wrote:I'm afraid the Valley is going to be so even next year that the regular season champion could be something like 12-6. If that's true, then no matter who wins in St. Louis, that team would have at least 6 losses in conference play. WSU got a 10-seed last year with 1 loss in conference play, and that was to a team rated higher than any Valley teams project for this season. A 14 or 15 seed could be the result.


It will be interesting to see where WSU gets seeded post season this year when playing in the AAC.
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Re: NCAA Tourney Bracket Predictions

Postby VUGrad1314 » August 20th, 2017, 7:58 am

Early reports seem to like them as a 1 or 2 seed. which is weird because Memphis and UCONN are down, SMU has lost a lot of talent, and that conference still has some serious bottom feeders like South Florida Tulane and East Carolina. Does playing Cincinnati Houston and UCF really mean that much more? Yes, it's better but is that really the difference between a 10 seed and a 1-2? If so that is very insulting to the Valley and the remaining members need to band together to ensure that the committee no longer has any grounds to slight this conference.
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Re: NCAA Tourney Bracket Predictions

Postby TheAsianSensation » August 20th, 2017, 12:03 pm

The AAC has had legitimate seeding troubles every year. We'll see how the addition of 2 signature win chances to everyone's schedule will impact things, but it'll take one heck of a run to get to the top 2 lines for Wichita.
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Re: NCAA Tourney Bracket Predictions

Postby Aargh » August 21st, 2017, 2:09 pm

All we've got to go from for predicting top-100 teams right now is the Top 144 that's being run down over the summer. I'm not claiming any accuracy for that, but it's the best indicator available right now.

The AAC is projected to have 8 top-100 teams. The report has gotten to #81, so there will be 7 AAC teams projected to be top 80. Top 100 wins were what burned WSU last year. Does the Valley have any projected top 100 teams?

I think the projections there for the Valley are bad. They don't have MSU winning from what I recall. I think Johnson can carry the Bears to a regular season championship regardless of Lusk's coaching.
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