Early MVC Predictions

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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby jackwagon » October 12th, 2017, 4:15 pm

I'll be here. Hope you all are this talkative when it goes down hill. Clarence is still in a boot no? That's not good for a true freshman who needs the reps. And no Copeland was your biggest impact player coming in. Yarborough should be a big help, not sold on a returning roster that has 1 proven player.
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby All-MVC Fan » October 12th, 2017, 5:09 pm

One thing I’ve learned from watching the MVC for so long is that experience does matter. It’s been rare over the years for a team with mostly new players to make any noise in this league. Our schools aren’t getting the “one and done” players who can win all by themselves. History says that if your team has had a roster’s worth of turnover, you’re not going to have a good season. History isn’t necessarily a good predictor of future performance, but in the MVC, it’s right A LOT more than it’s wrong.

Don’t take it personally. If your team is mostly new players, you’re likely a year away.
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby Stickboy46 » October 14th, 2017, 9:20 am

jackwagon wrote:I'll be here. Hope you all are this talkative when it goes down hill. Clarence is still in a boot no? That's not good for a true freshman who needs the reps. And no Copeland was your biggest impact player coming in. Yarborough should be a big help, not sold on a returning roster that has 1 proven player.

Is there any potential impact from Yarborough's legal troubles. I think I saw he missed his court date for the theft thing?
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby underdawg » October 25th, 2017, 3:25 pm

6-5 projected PG starter Marcus Bartley just broke a small bone in his hand and is out 6-8 weeks :( Oh well, McGill and Cook are only 6-2 but will have to cover it till Conference season--too bad
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby tribecalledquest » October 26th, 2017, 8:41 am

All-MVC Fan wrote:One thing I’ve learned from watching the MVC for so long is that experience does matter. It’s been rare over the years for a team with mostly new players to make any noise in this league. Our schools aren’t getting the “one and done” players who can win all by themselves. History says that if your team has had a roster’s worth of turnover, you’re not going to have a good season. History isn’t necessarily a good predictor of future performance, but in the MVC, it’s right A LOT more than it’s wrong.

Don’t take it personally. If your team is mostly new players, you’re likely a year away.


This is why I'm surprised Bradley was picked 7th. No, I didn't expect them to be picked top three but they have all five starters back and like the top nine guys overall. They lose no one of consequence. Again, I'm not saying they should have been picked 2nd but how often do we see an MVC team with everyone back picked 7th?

I mean, Bradley finished tied for 6th last season and has everyone back yet the preseason poll has them WORSE this season? That makes little sense (at least in how the history of the league and preseason polls have played out).

Let me take it one step further. Bradley and Missouri State finished with the same MVC record last season. Tied for 6th. They split the two head to head matchups. Mo State has four of five starters back (plus Rousseau). Bradley has all five starters back. MSU is picked 1st and Bradley 7th.
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby Drakey » October 26th, 2017, 10:09 am

Unless everybody else has improved drastically, I see Bradley in the top half of the conference.
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby ACECARD » October 26th, 2017, 6:59 pm

Drakey wrote:Unless everybody else has improved drastically, I see Bradley in the top half of the conference.

They certainly aren't a Thursday team, and probably in the top half.
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby Blers » October 27th, 2017, 7:26 am

What's tough this year is from the outside looking in, I don't know how many teams got worse. Illinois State sure, but they reloaded pretty well. I really feel that no matter how this season shakes out, there's going to be one team playing on Thursday that wouldn't have been playing on Thursday most other years. If i had to guess a lot of conference records from the 3 to 7 seed hovering around 9-9
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby BCPanther » October 27th, 2017, 10:19 am

Blers wrote:What's tough this year is from the outside looking in, I don't know how many teams got worse. Illinois State sure, but they reloaded pretty well. I really feel that no matter how this season shakes out, there's going to be one team playing on Thursday that wouldn't have been playing on Thursday most other years. If i had to guess a lot of conference records from the 3 to 7 seed hovering around 9-9


9-9 for 3rd only happens if you have two teams that win 16 or 17 league games and that isn't happening this year. 14-4 is a lock to win and 13-5 might get a share. You'll get distribution similar to this-

14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
9-9
9-9
7-11
6-12
6-12
3-15

The more I've thought about it is there are only two coaches in this league that have proven the ability to win double digit games consistently in the league regardless of talent. While I don't like some of the character issues that Muller has brought in over the years (and that's an institutional problem in general at Illinois State), I think he knows what he's doing on the bench. Jacobson is Jacobson, it looks like he went and got 12 guys from the bar getting off the bus and yet, somehow, he wins a lot more than he loses.

I just can't imagine Lusk or Moser doing enough to get the 13 or 14 wins its going to take to win a title. you're basically assuming that Missouri State is going to double their win total or that Loyola can add 6 wins to what they did last year while losing Milton Doyle and several other talented players thou. Even if you assume you're trading two Wichita losses for two Valpo wins (which isn't a given) that seems like a stretch to me.

This is year two of the classic Ben Jacobson cycle where he's typically got an NIT level team that can sneak in and win in StL and I think Muller is going to be better than we're giving him credit for.

I'm revising my previous thoughts--
1-UNI
2-Illinois State
3-Loyola
4-Missouri State
5-Southern Illinois
6-Bradley
7-Valparaiso
8-Indiana State
9-Drake
10-Evansville
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby Old School MVC » October 30th, 2017, 1:37 pm

I have been holding out for my Early predictions, but with the season quickly approaching I figured I need to make my picks.

1.) MSU - Lusk can't possibly screw this up can he?
2.) Loyola - I can't believe I am picking them this high either, but they have a lot of talent, and hopefully when they start winning they can create a HUGE home court advantage.
3.) ISUr - They seem to struggle in the out of Conference, but seem to have things firing on all cylinders when the conference season rolls around.
4.) UNI - Same as the Redbirds, but they still seem to struggle until late January before things start to click.
5.) Valpo - They have a winning tradition in the Summit, so let's see if the Valley is really that much better.
6.) SIU - They should be better than this, but they sometimes lose their way during the season.
7.) Bradley - They have a lot of returning players coming back, but not sure if that translates into wins.
8.) ISUb - The bottom 3 is a toss up, but the Sycamores beat the Illini in a scrimmage so they will get the nod.
9.) Drake - Showed some signs of life last year.
10.) Evansville - This could be Marty's farewell tour.
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby Redbirds4Life » October 30th, 2017, 2:19 pm

1. Northern Iowa - I like the returners on this roster, probably the best coach in the league. 13-5

2. Missouri State - AJ is a beast, but maybe it's just me but I think this team just feels like when the Birds had Osiris, is he enough to get this team over the hump with a below average coach, I say no. - 12-6

3. Illinois State - If the Birds have a good year, then we can say Dirty Dan is a good coach. I am still not convinced, even though I want to be. Lost a ton, but still enough there to hang around and be a tough team. 11-7

4. Southern Illinois - Is 4th enough for Barry to keep his job? 10-8

5. Bradley - I would love to pick them higher, but I think they have a good coach and are on the way back up. Team got better throughout the year, not as many wins, but still were generally competitive. 10-8

6. Loyola - Am I the only one who doesn't think this team is that good? Not as if they were that good last year in a down league. I can't believe that Porter will know what to do with that recruiting class either. I guess this is where I am going out on a limb. Ingram is a stud, and maybe I have them low, but I think that SIU and Bradley are just better. 9-9

7. Drake - 6-12 - Drake will win 2 games they shouldn't, other than that, same old Drake

8. Valpo - 6-12 - No clue about Valpo, usually a good program, but I am guessing this is a year to get acclimated

9. Evan - 4-14, bye bye Fat Marty

10. ISUb - 4-14, poor Brenton Scott
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby BirdsEyeView » October 30th, 2017, 3:35 pm

Redbirds4Life wrote:1. Northern Iowa - I like the returners on this roster


You say this after they lost their leader in 5 statistical categories from last year.

Redbirds4Life wrote:6. Loyola - Am I the only one who doesn't think this team is that good? Not as if they were that good last year in a down league.


Yet say this too.

Reminder...
UNI was 9-9
Loyola 8-10


People are drunk on Ben Jacobson. Great coach, his roster is average.
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