Early MVC Predictions

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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby E-Villan » September 19th, 2017, 12:52 pm

mule wrote:
Blers wrote:This years gonna be a dogfight.

Evansville- I'm sorry Evansville fans. I'm really sorry.

I have to laugh at each and every prediction that has been submitted for this thread. Everybody has their opinion. Most are homer-centric, which they should be, seeing no fan could have intimate knowledge of all 10 teams to make these predictions.
As a loyal and informed Evansville fan I have no idea how the team will perform this season. Likewise, I have absolutely no clue how the other 9 teams will perform.
Blers, I think you nailed the dogfight part for the conference this season. But you just mailed in your prediction about Evansville. Why not share your vast knowledge of the team to justify such an uninformed comment instead of your lame attempt of humor.



My guess is he was taught if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all.....

I don't think the question is why does a random MVC fan fail to analyze this year's UE team, rather why does a coach entering his 11th season have his program in such sad shape that a random MVC fan doesn't have the desire to even analyze it?

I hate reading these posts and predictions, I really do..but what is incorrect? I sincerely hope I am wrong, but this shaping up to be a disaster. Again, is the problem the posters making the predictions, or the veteran coach not able to get any prediction more optimistic than a repeat of his 9th place finish?
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby mule » September 19th, 2017, 1:23 pm

Blers wrote:
mule wrote:
Blers wrote:This years gonna be a dogfight.

Evansville- I'm sorry Evansville fans. I'm really sorry.

I have to laugh at each and every prediction that has been submitted for this thread. Everybody has their opinion. Most are homer-centric, which they should be, seeing no fan could have intimate knowledge of all 10 teams to make these predictions.
As a loyal and informed Evansville fan I have no idea how the team will perform this season. Likewise, I have absolutely no clue how the other 9 teams will perform.
Blers, I think you nailed the dogfight part for the conference this season. But you just mailed in your prediction about Evansville. Why not share your vast knowledge of the team to justify such an uninformed comment instead of your lame attempt of humor.


Hahaha ouch. Loyola struggled to be halfway for the better part of the last 30 years, and it sucks. Most seasons you went in with low expectations, and were correct. So seeing that the Evansville fans on this thread don't have much positive to offer, I empathize. I base most of my predictions on my own opinions as well as what the home team fans have to say about their team.

I have literally no idea about Evansville at all other than:
-They're listed as having 11 scholarship players.
-There's not a clear heir apparent to Brown
-Dru Smith, good defense, maybe offense?
-Ryan Taylor-scoring potential on any given night, but inconsistent

As well as these two quotes
- this quote from Acecard in the thread: "The Aces may not be as bad we think they will be, and I might win the next Powerball."
- or a quote from you in June when responding to a post asking why everyone was so down on Evansville: "The team lost 54% of the minutes played, 64% of the scoring, and 42% of the 3 point scoring. Also, right now only one player over 6'8" with experience on the roster. Team was expecting big things from Silas Adheke this season. He left the team last week."

Not trying to bash at all, kicking a team when they're down is pointless. I just don't see it for them right now... By all means give your Aces scouting report though, i'd love to hear it!

Fair enough. Who's left from last years team? Five players that played quality minutes plus Blake Simmons who sat out last year with a medical redshirt. Also returning is 6'7" redshirt freshman John Hall. I expect Gibson, Taylor, and Simmons to start. More than likely Hall starts at the 4 spot and Dru Smith backs up Gibson at the point. Hainna played last year with two bad knees. If healthy he should be more of a factor on the offensive end. Traore (6'9") was a part time starter in the 5 spot last year before hurting his back.
Who's new? Chatkevicius is a JUCO Jr. that the Aces recruited as a HS player, then had him enroll at Vincennes (JUCO) for two non productive years. He is a 6'9" banger.
Three point shooters were addressed with 6'8" FR Kuhlman, 6'4" FR Frederking, and 6'5" JR Hill (JUCO) and John Hall. Rounding out the roster is 6'5" Riley SO (JUCO) and a walk on freshman.
On paper Taylor will lead the league in scoring. He probably assumes Brown roll of cutting thru the lane and shooting 3 pointers. Gibson, when healthy can score in the lane on along the baseline. Hall should be an outside threat and along the baseline. Simmons will be a 5-8 point contributor. The rest of the points are truly an unknown.
Defensively, the 5 spot will be the Aces achilles heel. Smith and Hainna should be good defensively, if they cut down on the fouls.
I could see the Aces finishing between 5 and 10 in the conference. Just depends on how the new comers contribute.
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby BirdsEyeView » September 20th, 2017, 7:34 am

Khan4Cats wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:
Khan4Cats wrote:

I think it is a combination of many things but mostly a critique of the other programs in the Valley and varying degrees of uncertainty with roster and/or coaching ability. Jacobson is certainly not flashy and has shown an ability to mold teams that contend without a bonafide 'superstar' more often than not. Even Tuttle's senior year, when he led the team in so many categories, the team was successful because of the balance of 7-9 other contributors. Same with the 2010 team. That is what this team looks more like this year, combined with what the rest of the league looks like.


Let me try to bring you UNI fans (and other neutrals) down to earth a bit by trying to bring in some logic to the conversation about Northern Iowa...

Here are last year's stats for UNI players:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... a-panthers

Your #1 player Jeremy Morgan led the team in minutes, points, assists, rebounds, steals and blocks per game.

Your #3 player, Jordan Ashton, graduated as well

Your #2 player, Bennett Koch, only averaged 20 minutes per game because of constant foul trouble

Let's all remember you lost your best player in 5 major statistical categories, not to mention, the intangibles of his leadership. But, yes Ben Jacobson will save the day next year...because 2014-2015 is the same as next year??? Uhh no.

Good luck.


And what does anyone else have that is a stone-cold lock guarantee?

In 2013-14, UNI was 16-15, one game better than they were last year at 15-16. Everyone on here was saying how that was as good as UNI was going to be, no need to worry about them. We know how that next season went. Not saying we are going to win 30 games, but I have a lot more confidence in us winning 20+ than I do in us having a losing record again or even playing on Thursday for the first time in Jake's tenure.


OKAY THIS SAME ARGUMENT WAS MADE A FEW MONTHS BACK AND I NEGATED IT IMMEDIATELY. HERE WAS MY RESPONSE TO THIS ARGUMENT THAT IT'S SIMILAR TO 2013-2014 LEADING INTO 2014-2015 IN A PREVIOUS THREAD ABOUT NEXT SEASON.......


BirdsEyeView wrote:
uniftw wrote:
BCPanther wrote:That would be the exact same argument we heard about UNI in 2009-10 and 2014-15. I'll let you check to see how those two teams turned out, but I think you're right to a degree, UNI is absolutely stacked for 2018-19, might be a year early this year.

Also, unlike other teams in this league we know what our roster is going to look like in 2 years and we develop talent...

It's kind of eery how similar this roster sets up like the 08/09 and 09/10 seasons in terms of the next two years.


Let me first say, I hope you are right. The conference needs UNI to be good.

However...I did my homework here.

Here is your 2013-2014 roster 16-15 record (before your big season in 2014-2015):
http://unipanthers.com/roster.aspx?rost ... ath=mbball

Your outgoing seniors: Chip Rank, Matt Morrison (that's it...no Jeremy "Do everything for UNI" Morgan outgoing that year)

Look at the rest of that roster, especially Junior class (Seth Tuttle, Deon Mitchell, Nate Buss, Paul Jesperson, RS) and your Sophomore class (Matt Bohannon, Wes Washpun)

Tuttle averaged 15ppg
Mitchell averaged 12.4ppg
Nate Buss averaged 10.6ppg
Matt Bohannon averaged 9.9ppg
Wes Waspun averaged 8.3ppg
Jeremy Morgan averaged 6ppg

Your seniors?
Chip Rank 5.2 ppg
Matt Morrison 1.3ppg

You lost a whole 6.5ppg from 13-14 season from outgoing Seniors leading into the 14-15 season!!!
You brought back a veteran senior-laden team that among the group returned 66.27 ppg across all returnees!!!

Compare to this season 2016-2017 and what you lose vs return.

Seniors lost - Jeremy Morgan (14.8ppg, 5.8rbs, 2.7 assists) & Jordan Ashton (8.5ppg)

So you only lose 23.3ppg (but also your senior leader)

Return from your entire roster (includes 7 guys at 3 points per game or less) a total of 46.2 points per game.


The difference...one team was returning it's entire core of players (your highest scoring outgoing Senior in 2013-2014 season was Chip Rank and he was 7th, I repeat 7th!!!! on the team in scoring).

This past season
Morgan = 1st in scoring
Ashton = 3rd in scoring

2nd? Bennett Koch who was always in foul trouble

So, I repeat, I can't fathom a huge step up to win the league and I will gladly eat crow if they do, but in no way are they looking to finish 1st in this conference based on that! And your comparison to the 2013-2014 team INTO 2014-2015 is not even close to the same returning players at the same level of performances
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby Khan4Cats » September 20th, 2017, 9:58 am

BirdsEyeView wrote:...


And your stone cold lock for who is clearly better?.....
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby BEARZ77 » September 20th, 2017, 10:41 am

Khan4Cats wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:...


And your stone cold lock for who is clearly better?.....


I think that's the beauty of college basketball; on paper both LOC and MSU are significantly better in returning talent and probably overall rosters. But both have glaring issues on the bench and Jake becomes the equalizer in any argument at this point in the preseason. And the other great thing in college is who knows who might be an Alize Johnson. Not many were paying him that much attention this time last year, now he's arguably the best player in the league. Could happen for any number of players on any given team. I can understand an argument for a top 1-3 finish for any of 6 teams at this point, so I fully understand their fan base making those. I don't make a strong argument for MSU because I've seen too much of Lusk, but I have no lack of confidence that no MVC team will out talent us this year like a WSU has been able to do.
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby BirdsEyeView » September 20th, 2017, 11:38 am

Khan4Cats wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:...


And your stone cold lock for who is clearly better?.....


From a strictly predictions standpoint based on (in order of importance)

A) Returning Players (and their impact as returners from last year, not avg 1 ppg types)
B) Incoming Recruits
C) Point Guard Play
D) Coaching Acumen

Based on just predictions on the above standards in tiers...

Missouri State
Loyola
....
....
SIU
UNI
ISUr
Valpo
....
....
Indy St
Bradley
Drake
Evansville
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby goramblers2011 » September 20th, 2017, 3:18 pm

BEARZ77 wrote:
Khan4Cats wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:...


And your stone cold lock for who is clearly better?.....


I think that's the beauty of college basketball; on paper both LOC and MSU are significantly better in returning talent and probably overall rosters. But both have glaring issues on the bench and Jake becomes the equalizer in any argument at this point in the preseason. And the other great thing in college is who knows who might be an Alize Johnson. Not many were paying him that much attention this time last year, now he's arguably the best player in the league. Could happen for any number of players on any given team. I can understand an argument for a top 1-3 finish for any of 6 teams at this point, so I fully understand their fan base making those. I don't make a strong argument for MSU because I've seen too much of Lusk, but I have no lack of confidence that no MVC team will out talent us this year like a WSU has been able to do.


I wouldn't even say it's an argument. He is clearly the best player in the league, imo. Really looking forward to watching him play this year.
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby ACECARD » September 20th, 2017, 6:32 pm

I certainly would agree that Alize is the best player in the league. I thought he was the best player I saw last year.
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby glm38 » September 21st, 2017, 10:33 am

ACECARD wrote:I certainly would agree that Alize is the best player in the league. I thought he was the best player I saw last year.


Thanks. It's nice to know he's appreciated by other fan bases too. He can just do so many things. That's what makes him so valuable and also fun to watch.
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby Stickboy46 » September 21st, 2017, 11:04 am

goramblers2011 wrote:
I wouldn't even say it's an argument. He is clearly the best player in the league, imo. Really looking forward to watching him play this year.


I'm not sure it's even close either. For those of you that didn't see, he went to the Adidas Nations camp this summer along with a lot of high major guys (NBA level guys) and he won the MVP award for the camp. He's primed for a breakout year.
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby Tom Servo » September 21st, 2017, 1:59 pm

I agree that he's by far the best player. He's extremely under-utilized at Missouri State, in my opinion. They don't get him the ball enough. I'd certainly love to have him on our team...

I remember watching a couple of their games last year where some of the guards would dribble the clock away and throw up a desperation shot with Johnson never touching the ball.

It seems the ball should be in his hands at least once every possession, preferably in the post. Then when the double teams come, he'll be able to dish off to the three point shooters for wide open shots. But what do I know...
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Re: Early MVC Predictions

Postby BirdsEyeView » September 21st, 2017, 3:39 pm

Tom Servo wrote:I agree that he's by far the best player. He's extremely under-utilized at Missouri State, in my opinion. They don't get him the ball enough. I'd certainly love to have him on our team...

I remember watching a couple of their games last year where some of the guards would dribble the clock away and throw up a desperation shot with Johnson never touching the ball.

It seems the ball should be in his hands at least once every possession, preferably in the post. Then when the double teams come, he'll be able to dish off to the three point shooters for wide open shots. But what do I know...


I think losing Dequon Miller is addition by subtraction for this reason exactly from last year. Alize will be better off without Miller around.
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