Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

Discuss the MVC hoops season here.

Who will finish in 6th place during the 2017-18 MVC men's basketball season?

Poll ended at October 11th, 2017, 7:20 am

Illinois State
10
16%
Loyola
0
No votes
Missouri State
2
3%
Northern Iowa
2
3%
Southern Illinois
18
28%
Valparaiso
32
50%
 
Total votes : 64

Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

Postby VUFWAlum » October 7th, 2017, 10:22 pm

Kind of surprised, but maybe I shouldn't be because fans always are biased toward their league, that the majority here think VU, which has been at least co-champion of the Horizon League 5 out of the last 6 years and winners of their last 5 games against MVC teams, will be worse than 5 other MVC teams this season. Is the MVC without Wichita State really that much better than the HL? I know you don't know us and we don't know you. I know this is a young team... but perhaps our most athletic team. 4th or 3rd maybe, but I have a hard time seeing 6th.

Here's to getting to know you better :Cheers:
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

Postby ptownbraves » October 8th, 2017, 7:44 am

VUFWAlum wrote:Kind of surprised, but maybe I shouldn't be because fans always are biased toward their league, that the majority here think VU, which has been at least co-champion of the Horizon League 5 out of the last 6 years and winners of their last 5 games against MVC teams, will be worse than 5 other MVC teams this season. Is the MVC without Wichita State really that much better than the HL? I know you don't know us and we don't know you. I know this is a young team... but perhaps our most athletic team. 4th or 3rd maybe, but I have a hard time seeing 6th.

Here's to getting to know you better :Cheers:


You brought up Valpo winning against their last 5 MVC opponents, so I looked at those games and those teams' respective conference finishes:
2016- Valpo beats: MSU - tied for 6th, ISUb - finished 9th
2015- Valpo beats: MSU - tied for 7th, ISUb - tied for 7th
2014 - Valpo beats Drake - finished 7th

Not exactly the best and brightest from the MVC. That being said, I dug into the standings for the last 5 years and the average number of conference wins for 6th place is 8. The average number of conference wins for 3rd place is 10.6. That's a pretty small gap. The difference between 3rd and 6th is not as big as it seems in this league and I would argue that just about any 6th place-level team could get up to 3rd if a couple games go their way.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

Postby BEARZ77 » October 8th, 2017, 7:56 am

pafan wrote:I agree with you about Barry being a better coach than Porter or Paul. But I see SIU's returning pieces from their roster and see a 5th-7th place team. That certainly could under value newcomers like Pippen and Bartley (transfer from SLU).


Again it's always interesting to see how others perceive things. I'm amazed people see coaches like Lansing or Simmons as better than Hinson. Lansing won his first year, had some decent teams early and then has been on a downward spiral. SIU has finished ahead of ISUb the last 2 years and probably will again this year. Even in Simmons big year two years ago, SIU only finished a game behind . It won't happen for a while again.

As far as their[SIU] talent and place this year; I always give respect to proven winners like Jake, and Muller is certainly trending up, but neither of those rosters has as much proven returning talent as SIU so any edge initially will have to be coaching and then some players are going to have to emerge for them both. Like we've all noted, whether Moser or Lusk can turn talent and depth into consistent play remains suspect but on paper those two teams and SIU have the edge roster wise IMO. Not ready yet to predict my 1-5 teams, very slim margins for all concerned, but getting a better sense of how I think they'll lineup.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

Postby musiccitybulldog » October 8th, 2017, 8:51 am

I was at the Nashville tournament where Valpo played Drake, and I realize things have changed since, but Valpo had put together a potent force at that time that would have rivaled ANY MVC team. I think this year they will finish in the top three.
I think this year in particular will be one of those "everyone beating up on everyone", that's happened a lot in the past.
Jacobson is a great game strategist. Illinois State usually puts it together and ends up with good, fast, good defensive players. The other teams are all probably plus or minus 10 points of each other on any given night.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

Postby VUFWAlum » October 8th, 2017, 12:01 pm

I think it was in the 7th Place thread that someone stated
This isn't like Loyola where they had won 1 game in conference play the previous season. Valparaiso is actually a compete right away add, which is why we went after them.
Winning in basketball is almost as much about culture as it is about talent. I think you will find that VU has a lot of talent and they certainly have a winning culture. I don't see that changing all that much. Only once in the last decade have we been below .500 in conference wins. During that same period, we averaged .575 in conference road wins and .747 in conference home wins a season. I just don't think that translates to a 6th place finish.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

Postby underdawg » October 8th, 2017, 12:36 pm

I agree most fans think their team is better than it turns out--so I'll try not to be too homer in this post

Reports from sources at practice have 6-5, 193 lb Marcus Bartley at PG, 6-5 215 lb Sean Lloyd at the two spot guard and 6-5 207 lb Armon Fletcher at Wing Guard

They are backed by 6-4 202 LB Tyler Smithpeters, 6'5' 202 lb Brendon Gooch, 6-2 175 Eric McGill and 6-2 185 lb Aaron Cook

the story at the PF and center has 6-8 205 lb Thik Bol at PF and 6-10 240 lb Kavion Pippen at Center---this all is contingent on Bol be able to face up offensively--he has developed a very good 15-16 ft Jumper and seems to play better facing the basket according to Coach Hinson--back ups are 6-9 and 6-8. 6-8 Weiher hurt himself a couple weeks ago but should be good to go by the Regular season in November. So front court is kind of problematic as far as depth. Fans would have like Hinson to have picked up a one year Big for 2017-18 but for some reason he hasn't.

As far as how good Pippen and McGill (both JUCO's last season) we'll have to see. But PG/shooter McGill finished 10th nationally in steals (85), 11th nationally in assist to turnover ratio (3.5) and 25th nationally in assists (180 assists). Pippen finished 34th nationally in Blocks with 53
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

Postby bleach » October 8th, 2017, 2:09 pm

VUFWAlum wrote:Kind of surprised, but maybe I shouldn't be because fans always are biased toward their league, that the majority here think VU, which has been at least co-champion of the Horizon League 5 out of the last 6 years and winners of their last 5 games against MVC teams, will be worse than 5 other MVC teams this season. Is the MVC without Wichita State really that much better than the HL? I know you don't know us and we don't know you. I know this is a young team... but perhaps our most athletic team. 4th or 3rd maybe, but I have a hard time seeing 6th.

Here's to getting to know you better :Cheers:


Kind of surprised Valpo would move to a league that without WSU isn't really that much better than the Horizon.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

Postby bleach » October 8th, 2017, 2:13 pm

BEARZ77 wrote:Again it's always interesting to see how others perceive things. I'm amazed people see coaches like Lansing or Simmons as better than Hinson. Lansing won his first year, had some decent teams early and then has been on a downward spiral. SIU has finished ahead of ISUb the last 2 years and probably will again this year. Even in Simmons big year two years ago, SIU only finished a game behind . It won't happen for a while again.


I'm amazed people don't consider where a coach is at when evaluating coaches.
Would you say it is easier to win at Terre Haute, Evansville, Or SIU?
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

Postby tdawgs87 » October 8th, 2017, 2:19 pm

underdawg wrote:I agree most fans think their team is better than it turns out--so I'll try not to be too homer in this post

Reports from sources at practice have 6-5, 193 lb Marcus Bartley at PG, 6-5 215 lb Sean Lloyd at the two spot guard and 6-5 207 lb Armon Fletcher at Wing Guard

They are backed by 6-4 202 LB Tyler Smithpeters, 6'5' 202 lb Brendon Gooch, 6-2 175 Eric McGill and 6-2 185 lb Aaron Cook

the story at the PF and center has 6-8 205 lb Thik Bol at PF and 6-10 240 lb Kavion Pippen at Center---this all is contingent on Bol be able to face up offensively--he has developed a very good 15-16 ft Jumper and seems to play better facing the basket according to Coach Hinson--back ups are 6-9 and 6-8. 6-8 Weiher hurt himself a couple weeks ago but should be good to go by the Regular season in November. So front court is kind of problematic as far as depth. Fans would have like Hinson to have picked up a one year Big for 2017-18 but for some reason he hasn't.

As far as how good Pippen and McGill (both JUCO's last season) we'll have to see. But PG/shooter McGill finished 10th nationally in steals (85), 11th nationally in assist to turnover ratio (3.5) and 25th nationally in assists (180 assists). Pippen finished 34th nationally in Blocks with 53


What role will Wiley play hearing he has improved and looking to replace O'Brien . Don't care where SIU is picked just with how we finish which will be in the top 3
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

Postby siudawgs » October 8th, 2017, 3:18 pm

bleach wrote:
BEARZ77 wrote:Again it's always interesting to see how others perceive things. I'm amazed people see coaches like Lansing or Simmons as better than Hinson. Lansing won his first year, had some decent teams early and then has been on a downward spiral. SIU has finished ahead of ISUb the last 2 years and probably will again this year. Even in Simmons big year two years ago, SIU only finished a game behind . It won't happen for a while again.


I'm amazed people don't consider where a coach is at when evaluating coaches.
Would you say it is easier to win at Terre Haute, Evansville, Or SIU?

Very true. SIU has the tradition, fan base and facilities to be an MVC contender in most years, and so far Hinson has not come close to making that happen. The natives are restless with good reason.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

Postby BEARZ77 » October 8th, 2017, 3:32 pm

Unless your name is/was WSU, I don't see much advantage at any other Valley school. They're all bunched with what they spend, they've all had periods when they were very good and periods when they stink. SIU had a special run, but by the time Hinson got there the program had been run into the ground by CL. I'm not saying BH is a really good coach, I'm just saying guys like Lansing and Simmons haven't done anything to be seen as better either. You see it every day, good coaches turn programs around and then either maintain them or move on. It really doesn't seem to matter where they coach, they get it done.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

Postby Jsnhbe1Birds » October 8th, 2017, 4:23 pm

BEARZ77 wrote:Unless your name is/was WSU, I don't see much advantage at any other Valley school. They're all bunched with what they spend, they've all had periods when they were very good and periods when they stink. SIU had a special run, but by the time Hinson got there the program had been run into the ground by CL. I'm not saying BH is a really good coach, I'm just saying guys like Lansing and Simmons haven't done anything to be seen as better either. You see it every day, good coaches turn programs around and then either maintain them or move on. It really doesn't seem to matter where they coach, they get it done.


Coaching and recruiting are two different things. Weber could recruit. Has coached a couple of good seasons but mostly not known as a good coach. Lowery was able to coach good recruits but couldn't recruit himself. Painter could coach and has since showed he could recruit at Purdue. Moser can recruit but can't coach. Muller has so far done both. Marshall has done both. Lusk can recruit but can't coach. Lansing coached well what was left to him but can't recruit. Wardle can recruit and has showed in the past he can coach. We'll see if he can make it both. Jacobsen can do both. Simmons is trash.
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