Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

Discuss the MVC hoops season here.

Who will finish in 3rd place during the 2017-18 MVC men's basketball season?

Poll ended at October 19th, 2017, 3:49 pm

Loyola
24
42%
Missouri State
4
7%
Northern Iowa
29
51%
 
Total votes : 57

Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

Postby Old School MVC » October 17th, 2017, 12:45 pm

I too have picked UNI the last three poll questions, but have trouble picking them here since I can not see Lusk and Moser having the top 2 teams in the league.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

Postby uniftw » October 17th, 2017, 5:07 pm

BirdsEyeView wrote:
I never said coaching didn't matter. Coaching only takes you so far. Ben typically develops his recruits and is good every 2-3 years. However, in this instance unlike say 2013-2014, you don't have returning players of pedigree except Koch (you lost your best player). Predictable you would get defensive though.

In general, I want, and the conference wants UNI to be good. It helps us overcome the loss of WSU, but your roster does not scream that this year. I will GLADLY eat crow if you are very good as it's good for the MVC.

Where do you believe ISUr finishes?

Mind you, I've done the math and posted it here many times. The Redbirds have lost something like 83% of their statistics from last season.

Bennett Koch is, and you can look this up, the most efficient player in the league last year and it wasn't really close. If he finds a way to stay out of foul trouble and gets to 28-30 MPG from 20 this league is in some real trouble.

Yes, Morgan is gone. That sucks. I'm not too worried.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

Postby BEARZ77 » October 17th, 2017, 8:10 pm

I like Koch a lot, and I'm sure you have some definition of efficiency that supports your point. His[Koch's] ability to get to the foul line and make fts is probably what makes him high in your formula. But just for comparisons sake, a guy like Obediah Church, who is certainly not a guy I'm touting as an all -league or difference maker performer, does a lot more things better than Koch for a post player. He shot 64% to Koch's 57%, he outrebounded him 5.8 to 3.8, he blocked 74 shots to Koch's 21, he had 42 assists to Kochs 13 and only 43 turnovers to Koch's 67. Which calls into question the term efficiency when a guy has 5x more turnovers than assists. Again I like Koch and believe he has all -league potential, but he has a lot more areas he needs to improve on than just foul problems.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

Postby uniftw » October 18th, 2017, 6:51 am

You're looking at raw numbers, not efficiency numbers.

Church played 6 more minutes per game

Player efficiency rating - Koch is 3 points ahead of Church. Koch is a head of Church in wins shares

Per 40 numbers
Church: 15 PTS 9 REBOUNDS 3 BLOCKS
Koch: 22 PTS 8 REBOUNDS 2 BLOCKS

Look at conference numbers per 40- given the extreme difference in SOS in the OOC
Church: 8 PTS 8 REBOUNDS 3 BLOCKS 2 AST 58% FG 43% FT
Koch: 22 PTS 8 REBOUNDS 2 BLOCKS 1 ASSIST 57% FG 79% FT

In conference play Church played 499 minutes - Koch 415. That's 2 games plus an OT difference. If Koch can stay on the floor there isn't another post player that impacts the game like he does.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

Postby BirdsEyeView » October 18th, 2017, 7:10 am

uniftw wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:
I never said coaching didn't matter. Coaching only takes you so far. Ben typically develops his recruits and is good every 2-3 years. However, in this instance unlike say 2013-2014, you don't have returning players of pedigree except Koch (you lost your best player). Predictable you would get defensive though.

In general, I want, and the conference wants UNI to be good. It helps us overcome the loss of WSU, but your roster does not scream that this year. I will GLADLY eat crow if you are very good as it's good for the MVC.

Where do you believe ISUr finishes?

Mind you, I've done the math and posted it here many times. The Redbirds have lost something like 83% of their statistics from last season.

Bennett Koch is, and you can look this up, the most efficient player in the league last year and it wasn't really close. If he finds a way to stay out of foul trouble and gets to 28-30 MPG from 20 this league is in some real trouble.

Yes, Morgan is gone. That sucks. I'm not too worried.


I have posted many times on here as well...I think ISUr is 4-6th place finishers just like UNI. We lost too much and our stud recruits are either ineligible (Copeland) or injured during preseason as a Freshman pg (Clarance). My expectations are low unless Fayne and Yarbrough can carry us.

I am not a homer ISUr fan. I am a realist, just like I am a realist for what I see with your roster at UNI.

Agreed on Koch. Averaged 20 minutes per game last year, needs to up that statistic, but you aren't worried you lost a guy who led you in 5 categories on what I consider a shi**y UNI team last season? Then also your #3 scorer Ashton? Who did you replace Morgan and Ashton with besides adding back your pg Lohaus? Mind you, we beat you by 21 points on your home floor WITH Morgan/Ashton/Koch/Carlson last year.

I just don't see it.

Again, I hope I am wrong for both ISUr and UNI....but too many people put WAAAAYYY too much weight on Ben Jacobson. The UNI roster screams mediocre to me unless someone has a break out year.

Ditto for ISUr.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

Postby glm38 » October 18th, 2017, 7:44 am

Regarding Koch - its certainly not a given he can curb his fouling. That's a big "if". A lot of talented players never overcome that deficiency. Maybe he does in his senior year but maybe not.

Bearz - regarding Church i do see him as a big difference maker for us. Primarily on the defensive end. The kid has out of this world athletic ability and plays hard ALL the time. I love his game. If he just develops a post up game he would definitely be all conference worthy. He seems very coachable. Hopefully the MSU coaching staff has made this a priority. But given our recent history I'm not counting on it.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

Postby Born2Shock » October 18th, 2017, 9:36 am

uniftw wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:
I never said coaching didn't matter. Coaching only takes you so far. Ben typically develops his recruits and is good every 2-3 years. However, in this instance unlike say 2013-2014, you don't have returning players of pedigree except Koch (you lost your best player). Predictable you would get defensive though.

In general, I want, and the conference wants UNI to be good. It helps us overcome the loss of WSU, but your roster does not scream that this year. I will GLADLY eat crow if you are very good as it's good for the MVC.

Where do you believe ISUr finishes?

Mind you, I've done the math and posted it here many times. The Redbirds have lost something like 83% of their statistics from last season.

Bennett Koch is, and you can look this up, the most efficient player in the league last year and it wasn't really close. If he finds a way to stay out of foul trouble and gets to 28-30 MPG from 20 this league is in some real trouble.

Yes, Morgan is gone. That sucks. I'm not too worried.


You're right. It wasnt close...


https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/co ... /2017.html

PER:
1. Aundre Jackson Loyola (IL) 26.6
2. Alize Johnson Missouri State 24.7
3. Deontae Hawkins Illinois State 23.1
4. Jaylon Brown Evansville 22.5
5. Markis McDuffie Wichita State 22.0
6. Milton Doyle Loyola (IL) 21.6
7. Bennett Koch Northern Iowa 21.6
8. Phil Fayne Illinois State 21.4
9. Paris Lee Illinois State 21.3
10. Jeremy Morgan Northern Iowa 20.6

Offensive Rating:
1. Landry Shamet Wichita State 132.1
2. Aundre Jackson Loyola (IL) 123.4
3. Markis McDuffie Wichita State 121.8
4. Donte Ingram Loyola (IL) 120.7
5. Alize Johnson Missouri State 116.3
6. Deontae Hawkins Illinois State 114.4
7. Jaylon Brown Evansville 114.2
8. Paris Lee Illinois State 112.8
9. Clayton Custer Loyola (IL) 112.8
10. Armon Fletcher Southern Illinois 112.



Defensive Rating:
1. Markis McDuffie Wichita State 89.1
2. Deontae Hawkins Illinois State 92.5
3. Phil Fayne Illinois State 92.9
4. Paris Lee Illinois State 93.2
5. Zach Brown Wichita State 93.5
6. MiKyle McIntosh Illinois State 93.8
7. Jeremy Morgan Northern Iowa 94.2
8. Tony Wills Illinois State 94.9
9. Landry Shamet Wichita State 95.0
10. Milton Doyle Loyola (IL) 95.5
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

Postby BirdsEyeView » October 18th, 2017, 11:31 am

Born2Shock wrote:
uniftw wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:
I never said coaching didn't matter. Coaching only takes you so far. Ben typically develops his recruits and is good every 2-3 years. However, in this instance unlike say 2013-2014, you don't have returning players of pedigree except Koch (you lost your best player). Predictable you would get defensive though.

In general, I want, and the conference wants UNI to be good. It helps us overcome the loss of WSU, but your roster does not scream that this year. I will GLADLY eat crow if you are very good as it's good for the MVC.

Where do you believe ISUr finishes?

Mind you, I've done the math and posted it here many times. The Redbirds have lost something like 83% of their statistics from last season.

Bennett Koch is, and you can look this up, the most efficient player in the league last year and it wasn't really close. If he finds a way to stay out of foul trouble and gets to 28-30 MPG from 20 this league is in some real trouble.

Yes, Morgan is gone. That sucks. I'm not too worried.


You're right. It wasnt close...


https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/co ... /2017.html

PER:
1. Aundre Jackson Loyola (IL) 26.6
2. Alize Johnson Missouri State 24.7
3. Deontae Hawkins Illinois State 23.1
4. Jaylon Brown Evansville 22.5
5. Markis McDuffie Wichita State 22.0
6. Milton Doyle Loyola (IL) 21.6
7. Bennett Koch Northern Iowa 21.6
8. Phil Fayne Illinois State 21.4
9. Paris Lee Illinois State 21.3
10. Jeremy Morgan Northern Iowa 20.6

Offensive Rating:
1. Landry Shamet Wichita State 132.1
2. Aundre Jackson Loyola (IL) 123.4
3. Markis McDuffie Wichita State 121.8
4. Donte Ingram Loyola (IL) 120.7
5. Alize Johnson Missouri State 116.3
6. Deontae Hawkins Illinois State 114.4
7. Jaylon Brown Evansville 114.2
8. Paris Lee Illinois State 112.8
9. Clayton Custer Loyola (IL) 112.8
10. Armon Fletcher Southern Illinois 112.



Defensive Rating:
1. Markis McDuffie Wichita State 89.1
2. Deontae Hawkins Illinois State 92.5
3. Phil Fayne Illinois State 92.9
4. Paris Lee Illinois State 93.2
5. Zach Brown Wichita State 93.5
6. MiKyle McIntosh Illinois State 93.8
7. Jeremy Morgan Northern Iowa 94.2
8. Tony Wills Illinois State 94.9
9. Landry Shamet Wichita State 95.0
10. Milton Doyle Loyola (IL) 95.5



SHHHH, you can't use facts that defeat blind homerism of some UNI fans.

And his per 40s are hilarious given Koch can barely play 20 minutes per game. I guess if he plays two games and everyone else plays one game then his stats look a bit better.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

Postby BEARZ77 » October 18th, 2017, 12:54 pm

I'll defend uniftw a bit in that I really do respect Koch's offensive skills. And a big guy who shoots 57%/76% fg/fts is giving good production. I do think the turnover to assist numbers are pretty bad and along with his foul troubles keeping him to 20 mpg are both things that need to improve if he's going to be a true impact guy.

But here's the thing and not just about Koch; it's one of my issues with sabermetrics and stat projections. Saying a guy's stats who averages 11ppg project to 20 ppg if he played x minutes, isn't the same as the guy who is doing it. They're fictitious numbers that you're making too many assumptions about. I have no problem saying you got really good production for the minutes he played, but making the assumption a guy who averaged x ppg or rbs in x minutes would average x more if he played whatever additional minutes and is therefore on the level with a guy who actually produced real stats is folly. Real stats win games , projections don't. You can make stats say whatever you want, but sometimes they make you think things that common sense and your vision tell you are not accurate. I know it's the trend in sports, and I do think there is value in looking at things from different angles, but projected stats just aren't the same as real statistics.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

Postby BirdsEyeView » October 18th, 2017, 12:59 pm

BEARZ77 wrote: I know it's the trend in sports, and I do think there is value in looking at things from different angles, but projected stats just aren't the same as real statistics.


My fantasy football team agrees with you there. Always under-performing their projected points!
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

Postby Red » October 18th, 2017, 1:11 pm

What's the deal with Alize? Did he get hurt? if so, I might need to change my vote.
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Re: Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

Postby Born2Shock » October 18th, 2017, 1:23 pm

BEARZ77 wrote:I'll defend uniftw a bit in that I really do respect Koch's offensive skills. And a big guy who shoots 57%/76% fg/fts is giving good production. I do think the turnover to assist numbers are pretty bad and along with his foul troubles keeping him to 20 mpg are both things that need to improve if he's going to be a true impact guy.

But here's the thing and not just about Koch; it's one of my issues with sabermetrics and stat projections. Saying a guy's stats who averages 11ppg project to 20 ppg if he played x minutes, isn't the same as the guy who is doing it. They're fictitious numbers that you're making too many assumptions about. I have no problem saying you got really good production for the minutes he played, but making the assumption a guy who averaged x ppg or rbs in x minutes would average x more if he played whatever additional minutes and is therefore on the level with a guy who actually produced real stats is folly. Real stats win games , projections don't. You can make stats say whatever you want, but sometimes they make you think things that common sense and your vision tell you are not accurate. I know it's the trend in sports, and I do think there is value in looking at things from different angles, but projected stats just aren't the same as real statistics.


I agree that advanced stats arent the be all/end all of things to consider. However, uniftw said Koch was the most efficient player last year and it wasnt close, and that I could look it up. So I did. And...it wasnt the case. He was the one touting the advanced metrics to pimp Koch.
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