MVC ranking

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Re: MVC ranking

Postby UNIFanSince1983 » December 15th, 2017, 8:38 am

AndShock wrote:Will be interesting to see if UNI ends up with any Q1 games in conference play. Loyola, Missouri State, and Valpo are all right on that line. UNI definitely isn’t getting an at-large with only 1 Q1 win. I feel like the selection committee is gonna emphasize the hell out of those.


That is why winning one or both against Iowa State and Xavier is pretty important. Not convinced it will happen, but at least we still have a chance to get two more quality wins before conference play.
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Re: MVC ranking

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Re: MVC ranking

Postby BCPanther » December 15th, 2017, 9:10 am

UNIFanSince1983 wrote:
AndShock wrote:Will be interesting to see if UNI ends up with any Q1 games in conference play. Loyola, Missouri State, and Valpo are all right on that line. UNI definitely isn’t getting an at-large with only 1 Q1 win. I feel like the selection committee is gonna emphasize the hell out of those.


That is why winning one or both against Iowa State and Xavier is pretty important. Not convinced it will happen, but at least we still have a chance to get two more quality wins before conference play.


I love our chances against Iowa State because they're young, want to run and, frankly, aren't very well coached. Xavier on the other hand, hoo boy, just glad I'll get to see them in person...
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Re: MVC ranking

Postby AndShock » December 15th, 2017, 2:12 pm

UNIFanSince1983 wrote:
AndShock wrote:Will be interesting to see if UNI ends up with any Q1 games in conference play. Loyola, Missouri State, and Valpo are all right on that line. UNI definitely isn’t getting an at-large with only 1 Q1 win. I feel like the selection committee is gonna emphasize the hell out of those.


That is why winning one or both against Iowa State and Xavier is pretty important. Not convinced it will happen, but at least we still have a chance to get two more quality wins before conference play.

Highly doubtful Iowa State is a Q1 game though. There’s a chance the committee might see “Iowa State” and value it more than a Q1 MVC game but it’s probably just safer to win all the games and not give the committee the chance to pick and choose if they want to value “Q1” or “P5.”
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Re: MVC ranking

Postby TheAsianSensation » December 15th, 2017, 5:18 pm

I'm going to be interested to see if Tier 1 games played is a cited statistic for the committee. We all know wins and records will be, but I wonder if games played becomes a secondary measurement for non-con SoS.

If so, the variance will be crazy for different teams, and the problem they have in college football right now (making resume decisions based on short sample sizes) will creep into basketball as well.

One hidden factor for UNI: Tier 2 wins, which they will likely have a pile of. At least those numbers will dwarf the numbers of other mid-majors in a comparison.
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Re: MVC ranking

Postby ahunte1 » December 15th, 2017, 7:13 pm

TheAsianSensation wrote:I'm going to be interested to see if Tier 1 games played is a cited statistic for the committee. We all know wins and records will be, but I wonder if games played becomes a secondary measurement for non-con SoS.


Wouldn't that be tremendously unfair to mid-majors? If so, I am guessing they will use that as needed to justify keeping us out.
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Re: MVC ranking

Postby TheAsianSensation » December 15th, 2017, 7:23 pm

ahunte1 wrote:
TheAsianSensation wrote:I'm going to be interested to see if Tier 1 games played is a cited statistic for the committee. We all know wins and records will be, but I wonder if games played becomes a secondary measurement for non-con SoS.


Wouldn't that be tremendously unfair to mid-majors? If so, I am guessing they will use that as needed to justify keeping us out.

It's pretty close to a zero-sum situation. Now, it's still early to rely on the numbers, but using RPIForecast's numbers, there's a very dominant mix of P6 schools projected to be ranked 31-50 (games that fall out of Tier 1) while there's a more eclectic mix of teams from 51-70. Most mid-majors should gain an away game in Tier 1, on average.

This year should help out the MVC. I don't think LUC, MSU, or Valpo can reach top 50, but they have a fighting chance at 70.


Just to illustrate the point, Palm (oy, that guy) did do a nice breakdown of the changes for bubble teams. The conclusion seems to be that there's no systematic bias for or against the P6 and mid-majors with the new system, with the notable exception of 2016 Monmouth, one of the greatest crimes of the 21st century.


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