MVC ranking

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Re: MVC ranking

Postby VUGrad1314 » November 23rd, 2017, 11:02 pm

Probably comes down to strength of schedule. He's riding the high of the Redbirds' impressive third place finish in the Puerto Rico Tipoff. Despite our undefeated records neither Loyola nor Valpo owns a win as impressive as anything Illinois State has done so far. While it is unfair and the Ramblers have done nothing to play themselves off the bracket the Valley will continue to face this kind of disrespect until we force them to recognize us. UNI can take a big step towards gaining that respect tomorrow if they can beat Villanova; but it's up to all of us to do our part and keep up the stellar OOC work. Go MVC!
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Re: MVC ranking

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Re: MVC ranking

Postby TheAsianSensation » November 24th, 2017, 6:56 pm

sivert wrote:PRank InGame Conference Conf RPI OOC W-L (pctg.) OOC SOS Rk OOC SOS
1 1 Southeastern Conference 0.6020 47-9 (0.8393) 5 0.5281
2 2 Big 12 Conference 0.5962 37-4 (0.9024) 18 0.4956
3 3 Atlantic Coast Conference 0.5949 55-12 (0.8209) 8 0.5239
4 4 Big East Conference 0.5896 33-7 (0.8250) 10 0.5190
5 5 Pac 12 Conference 0.5638 40-11 (0.7843) 12 0.5119
6 6 Missouri Valley Conference 0.5517 29-12 (0.7073) 17 0.4960
7 7 Big Ten Conference 0.5466 52-14 (0.7879) 24 0.4820
8 8 Western Athletic Conference 0.5415 14-20 (0.4118) 1 0.5582
9 9 American Athletic Conference 0.5363 40-11 (0.7843) 28 0.4643

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-conf-rpi.html

For a moment, let’s assume this trend persists and the B1G stays worse than the MVC in the OOC season. (I know that's a big assumption with only about 1/3rd of the OOC games done, but the early-season weakness of the RPI is paucity of data, which is partially made up for by looking at conference performance.) This turn of events would make some heads explode.

I'm interested in The Asian Sensation's take on things related to that.
There has been talk of P5 conferences playing less OOC games. That, I think, would decrease the magnitude of RPI variance between conferences, but would do nothing to erase this kind of RPI standing issue.

But this also illustrates the effect of P5s playing more Conf Games. If the P5s play VERY few games against OOC opponents - for instance, one game each, then the conference-average W-L would be very nearly 50% for every conference. Since each team would be playing mostly conference games that would mean SOS and Opponent SOS would be nearly identical. Then "RPI" would be almost entirely determined by each teams W/L record. And a 75% W/L in the B12 would be nearly identical RPI-wise to a 75% W/L record in the Patriot League.

What would be the effect of dropping OOC games by 10% (close to suggested B1G change) or 25%?

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If MVC has a better RPI than the B1G at the end of OOC season, then heads will explode. Ken Pom better get his arguments ready because there will be a HUGE PUSH to adopt a better metric.

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The fact that MVC is ahead of AAC is very pleasing. The turn of events I would most want is for the MVC to have an at-large and for WSU to lose a few they shouldn't and end up with an RPI of 60. Is that bad?

First things first - don't use conference RPI in November. I will eat my hat if the MVC holds on against the B1G. It's safe to say the Big 7 conferences will zoom by. Mountain West probably too. A-10 is struggling, we might get them. Same with the WCC. We'll be 9th or 10th.

I think your analysis of non-con SoS would be true if conferences were playing something like 24 conference games. At 20, there's still enough non-con games where the big boys can control things overall. Most teams average 12 non-con slots, bringing it down to 10 hurts the big boys a little, but not a lot.

But also remember which games they're cutting. The ones they're cutting are the ones that the mid-majors rely on to catch the big boys. They hurt themselves, but they hurt us just as much. So I think there's not much net gain.

There's more nuances to it as well. The A-10 is aggressive in making sure their top teams play each other 2x in conference. Going to 20 hurts them more than, say, the B1G, who is truly randomly balanced.
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Re: MVC ranking

Postby sivert » November 25th, 2017, 5:22 pm

I’m sure you’re right. But since my last, we have passed the PAC12 and sit at #5. I’ll enjoy that while I can!
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Re: MVC ranking

Postby uniftw » November 25th, 2017, 9:09 pm

We gonna drop hard when we drop. I’m looking at SoS numbers and there are a couple bombs in our conference

Southern Illinois 8
UNI 48
Indiana State 67
Illinois State 103
Drake 113
Bradley 255
Missouri State 286
Loyola 310
Evansville 309
Valpo 319

SIU isn’t well connected and they’ll come back down but still. Bradley and below should be at least partially embarrassed.
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Re: MVC ranking

Postby VUGrad1314 » November 25th, 2017, 9:24 pm

Valpo's number is about to rise significantly. Our next five games are against Utah State Purdue Ball State Northwestern and Santa Clara with the latter four games on the road. And remember Loyola got screwed over by NC State and lost a home date with them which they likely replaced with a vastly inferior opponent
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Re: MVC ranking

Postby Blers » November 25th, 2017, 10:11 pm

Losing NC State hurt. We got @Boise and @Florida coming up which is good; UIC is solid as well, and we’re at Milwaukee which is a weird team having beat Iowa state but lost to some D2 team... but replacing NC State with Norfolk sucks.
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Re: MVC ranking

Postby VUGrad1314 » November 25th, 2017, 10:42 pm

Also Indiana State isn't winning Southern Illinois just dropped another game to fall to .500 and Illinois State is also at .500 so it's not all roses for the folks at the top of this list either. I think for now we should focus not on who should be embarrassed and for what and more on the fact that outside of one bad night and another mediocre night we're doing very well as a conference. Let's focus less on SoS numbers which are way out of whack right now anyway and more on beating the teams on our schedules whoever they may be. The numbers will take care of themselves but if we don't win then none of it matters anyway. The time to whine about scheduling is anytime when games are not being played once the season starts it's winning time. We're at a big moment as a conference as we have now reached the MVC-MWC challenge. This is where our focus needs to be right now. As long as we keep winning the numbers and the metrics will take care of themselves. And no this is not a call to schedule fluff for the sake of wins we still need to consistently challenge ourselves as many in the MVC already have and will continue to do it's a call to focus on what really matters because that will lead us to achieving our goals as a conference.
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Re: MVC ranking

Postby TheAsianSensation » November 25th, 2017, 11:43 pm

Valpo's sked will be fine. They backloaded.

Frankly it's early even for SoS numbers, but there's certainly a cost associated with our overall record so far.

The important thing is maintaining our gap on the Mountain West and A-10, who are the primary competition this year. I don't think we can hold off the MWC; we might have a chance at the A-10 given their poor start. I think we're going to hold off the WCC. And everyone else below them are in different states of disrepair.
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Re: MVC ranking

Postby freddycat68 » November 26th, 2017, 12:03 pm

uniftw wrote:We gonna drop hard when we drop. I’m looking at SoS numbers and there are a couple bombs in our conference

Southern Illinois 8
UNI 48
Indiana State 67
Illinois State 103
Drake 113
Bradley 255
Missouri State 286
Loyola 310
Evansville 309
Valpo 319

SIU isn’t well connected and they’ll come back down but still. Bradley and below should be at least partially embarrassed.


BU is 6-1 with a current sos of 24 and an RPI of 20. I KNOW I KNOW IT'S TOO EARLY FOR RPI TALK -- but I think most BU fans will pass on your invitation to be "embarrassed."
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Re: MVC ranking

Postby VUGrad1314 » November 26th, 2017, 1:01 pm

5 schools top 100 7 schools top 120 8 schools top 130. This I like to see! Keep it rolling MVC!
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Re: MVC ranking

Postby sivert » November 26th, 2017, 11:41 pm

I’m thinking we end up about 0.525, for 7th or 8th. Should two teams do well, that would be enough for an at large. Hoping I’m right...
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Re: MVC ranking

Postby chitown fanatic » November 27th, 2017, 8:58 am

And Bradley playing team defense like I haven't seen in almost 25 years. The MVC is in for a rude awakening in Peoria this year if this keeps up. Just have to shoot better- both from the field and the line. Next Sunday will either show me we're for real or still have a ways to go.
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