MVC team standing prediction

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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby Dansen » December 26th, 2017, 12:00 pm

From The Athletic (paid site but I found the results of the article online), Ken Pomeroy wrote an article about the likelihood of each team to win each conference according to his metrics as of right now.

https://theathletic.com/194793/2017/12/ ... nce-races/

Missouri Valley: Missouri State 52%, Northern Iowa 27%, Loyola-Chicago 17%, Bradley 11%, Illinois State 11%

Kind of reaffirms what most of us think, MoState is the favorite but there's a lot of parity. The equation probably doesn't take coaching into effect but just metrics and schedule wise these are the current odds
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby ACECARD » December 26th, 2017, 1:35 pm

Dansen wrote:From The Athletic (paid site but I found the results of the article online), Ken Pomeroy wrote an article about the likelihood of each team to win each conference according to his metrics as of right now.

https://theathletic.com/194793/2017/12/ ... nce-races/

Missouri Valley: Missouri State 52%, Northern Iowa 27%, Loyola-Chicago 17%, Bradley 11%, Illinois State 11%

Kind of reaffirms what most of us think, MoState is the favorite but there's a lot of parity. The equation probably doesn't take coaching into effect but just metrics and schedule wise these are the current odds

From what I saw against the Aces, Illinois St. is better than that. Yarborough (?) is as good of a player as I have seen this year. They are better than Bradley, and Loyola, in my opinion.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby bleach » December 26th, 2017, 5:40 pm

Dansen wrote:Missouri Valley: Missouri State 52%, Northern Iowa 27%, Loyola-Chicago 17%, Bradley 11%, Illinois State 11%
Kind of reaffirms what most of us think, MoState is the favorite but there's a lot of parity. The equation probably doesn't take coaching into effect but just metrics and schedule wise these are the current odds

Mo St has enough talent to overcome Lusks coaching but that doesn't mean i'm predicting it.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby Redbird222 » December 28th, 2017, 4:35 pm

Posting this after MSU/Loyola and Birds/Aced game

1. MSU - best player, team has depth, experienced
2. Birds - assuming they Clarance and David back
3. UNI - play good defense but I am concerned with guards
4. Loyola - both starting guards out hurts start of conference play
5. SIU - assuming Bol is back playing well
6. Evansville - I believe when healthy they can play with most
7. Bradley - still a year away
8. Valpo - the team I seen the least but suspension will hurt.
9. Drake - lack of inside game and defense. They will be competitive this year
10. Trees - they appear to have issues but Lansing is still a good game coach.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby chitown fanatic » January 1st, 2018, 2:11 pm

Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:After watching Bradley get blown out by Ole Miss, which ISUr beat, my standings have changed heading into conference play.

Northern Iowa
Illinois State
Evansville
Loyola
Southern Illinois
Missouri State
Valparaiso
Bradley
Drake
Indiana State

Yes, the annual Bradley and Drake Thursday game.



This might be the worst set of predicted results of all time. Please watch the UNI beatdown yesterday in Peoria and tell me theyre winning this league. Theyre overrated just like I said before the year began. They have no depth and struggle to score. Jacobsen will be the only reason they avoid playing in when its all said and done. 13-5 will win the league...I'm not sure who itll be but it sure as hell aint UNI
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby BirdsEyeView » January 1st, 2018, 2:18 pm

chitown fanatic wrote:
Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:After watching Bradley get blown out by Ole Miss, which ISUr beat, my standings have changed heading into conference play.

Northern Iowa
Illinois State
Evansville
Loyola
Southern Illinois
Missouri State
Valparaiso
Bradley
Drake
Indiana State

Yes, the annual Bradley and Drake Thursday game.



This might be the worst set of predicted results of all time. Please watch the UNI beatdown yesterday in Peoria and tell me theyre winning this league. Theyre overrated just like I said before the year began. They have no depth and struggle to score. Jacobsen will be the only reason they avoid playing in when its all said and done. 13-5 will win the league...I'm not sure who itll be but it sure as hell aint UNI


:+1:
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby Jsnhbe1Birds » January 1st, 2018, 2:25 pm

chitown fanatic wrote:
Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:After watching Bradley get blown out by Ole Miss, which ISUr beat, my standings have changed heading into conference play.

Northern Iowa
Illinois State
Evansville
Loyola
Southern Illinois
Missouri State
Valparaiso
Bradley
Drake
Indiana State

Yes, the annual Bradley and Drake Thursday game.



This might be the worst set of predicted results of all time. Please watch the UNI beatdown yesterday in Peoria and tell me theyre winning this league. Theyre overrated just like I said before the year began. They have no depth and struggle to score. Jacobsen will be the only reason they avoid playing in when its all said and done. 13-5 will win the league...I'm not sure who itll be but it sure as hell aint UNI


Well, this was made days ago before unis Bradley beatdown and Drake's win.

Right now I say ISUr takes it
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby ACECARD » January 1st, 2018, 2:41 pm

Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:
chitown fanatic wrote:
Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:After watching Bradley get blown out by Ole Miss, which ISUr beat, my standings have changed heading into conference play.

Northern Iowa
Illinois State
Evansville
Loyola
Southern Illinois
Missouri State
Valparaiso
Bradley
Drake
Indiana State

Yes, the annual Bradley and Drake Thursday game.



This might be the worst set of predicted results of all time. Please watch the UNI beatdown yesterday in Peoria and tell me theyre winning this league. Theyre overrated just like I said before the year began. They have no depth and struggle to score. Jacobsen will be the only reason they avoid playing in when its all said and done. 13-5 will win the league...I'm not sure who itll be but it sure as hell aint UNI


Well, this was made days ago before unis Bradley beatdown and Drake's win.

Right now I say ISUr takes it

I say it's between Ill. St., and Mo. St.. Too much basketball left to be sure of either.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby Blers » January 1st, 2018, 3:11 pm

I know Illinois States been hit hard with injuries, but am I wrong in saying their success may largely hinge on the trio of Yarborough, Fayne, and Evans all being healthy? I know they’ve all missed a bit of time to varying degrees but from what I’ve seen losing one over an extended stretch could really derail the team.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby Jsnhbe1Birds » January 1st, 2018, 4:42 pm

Blers wrote:I know Illinois States been hit hard with injuries, but am I wrong in saying their success may largely hinge on the trio of Yarborough, Fayne, and Evans all being healthy? I know they’ve all missed a bit of time to varying degrees but from what I’ve seen losing one over an extended stretch could really derail the team.


You are correct. Losing any of them for a period is crippling. You could say the same for Missouri State and Alize Johnson and we already know what happens when Loyola is without Richardson. We saw a few loses for Evansville without Taylor. SIU is better with Bol. Your statement could be said about any team in the country and one of their top 3 players.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby WSpringsBird » January 1st, 2018, 5:13 pm

Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:
Blers wrote:I know Illinois States been hit hard with injuries, but am I wrong in saying their success may largely hinge on the trio of Yarborough, Fayne, and Evans all being healthy? I know they’ve all missed a bit of time to varying degrees but from what I’ve seen losing one over an extended stretch could really derail the team.


You are correct. Losing any of them for a period is crippling. You could say the same for Missouri State and Alize Johnson and we already know what happens when Loyola is without Richardson. We saw a few loses for Evansville without Taylor. SIU is better with Bol. Your statement could be said about any team in the country and one of their top 3 players.


If Evans is out for long--I know the Pantagraph said he's expected to be out one to three weeks--the Redbirds will struggle. A lot. Although he has cut down on ticky-tack fouls this year, in the past Fayne has frequently gotten into foul trouble, which is an especially huge risk with Evans out. I just think the Redbirds are pretty vulnerable over the next few games. Even with Evans playing, the next five games (@Drake, Missouri State, Loyola, @SIU, Bradley) are tough match-ups. Without Evans? It could be a really rough stretch.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby bleach » January 2nd, 2018, 8:29 am

Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:
Blers wrote:I know Illinois States been hit hard with injuries, but am I wrong in saying their success may largely hinge on the trio of Yarborough, Fayne, and Evans all being healthy? I know they’ve all missed a bit of time to varying degrees but from what I’ve seen losing one over an extended stretch could really derail the team.


You are correct. Losing any of them for a period is crippling. You could say the same for Missouri State and Alize Johnson


We've been noticing that the Bears might play better when Alize isn't on the floor. Not saying he is a problem in any way but the Bears don't depend on him when he's out and do quite well when he is on the bench with fouls or resting. Having said that, Alize is a real force on this team and I wouldn't want to find out what life without him was like. He has been somewhat limited by a preseason knee injury already but seems to be over that now. I say that to say, the Bears are very deep this year and losing Alize for a period is less concerning than what our coach will do over the course of the year.
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