MVC team standing prediction

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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby BCPanther » January 2nd, 2018, 8:35 am

After 2 games (granted, ridiculously early)

Mizzou St (Paul seems to just be letting them play)
Loyola (Crazy athletic, Porter is just good enough on the defensive end)
Illinois State (Evans injury is a big deal)
Bradley (This might be a bit high, not sold on consistency, yet)
UNI (We all know UNI won't play on Thursday no matter how bad they look in early January)
Drake (Good start, bright future, will regress to the mean)
Evansville (Solid, unspectacular, typical Marty)
Southern Illinois (Barry gets a mulligan due to injuries)
Indiana State (I have no idea who this team is or what they want to be)
Valpo (Seems to have gotten awfully quiet in NW Indiana)
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby Blers » January 2nd, 2018, 10:27 am

Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:
Blers wrote:I know Illinois States been hit hard with injuries, but am I wrong in saying their success may largely hinge on the trio of Yarborough, Fayne, and Evans all being healthy? I know they’ve all missed a bit of time to varying degrees but from what I’ve seen losing one over an extended stretch could really derail the team.


You are correct. Losing any of them for a period is crippling. You could say the same for Missouri State and Alize Johnson and we already know what happens when Loyola is without Richardson. We saw a few loses for Evansville without Taylor. SIU is better with Bol. Your statement could be said about any team in the country and one of their top 3 players.



While I agree that losing a top player is detrimental to any team, ISUr is particularly reliant on their stars. The three of them average 52.5 ppg; ninth in the country per your teams twitter, and over 2/3's of the teams total points per game. Yarborough, Fayne, and Evans all average 16 plus, while the next highest point total is Madison Williams at 6.9ppg, Bruninga (really like him btw) adds 6.2 as the only other player to average over 5 a game.

For comparison teams with players who average 5 or more (granted sample sizes vary for some players with injuries)
LU-8
SIU-8
MSU 8
Bradley-8
Valpo-7
UNI-7
Drake-7
ISUb-5
ISUr-5

ISUr's offense seems so heavily reliant on those 3 that I was wondering if they had potential to be especially vulnerable. Obviously for now they can carry the load as they've gotten some nice W's!
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby bleach » January 2nd, 2018, 11:08 am

BCPanther wrote:After 2 games (granted, ridiculously early)

Mizzou St (Paul seems to just be letting them play)

If it is your intention to irritate Bears fans, this works. If not, Mo St is preferred. Think if we called UNI Hawkeyes north.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby mule » January 2nd, 2018, 11:28 am

Blers wrote:
Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:
Blers wrote:I know Illinois States been hit hard with injuries, but am I wrong in saying their success may largely hinge on the trio of Yarborough, Fayne, and Evans all being healthy? I know they’ve all missed a bit of time to varying degrees but from what I’ve seen losing one over an extended stretch could really derail the team.


You are correct. Losing any of them for a period is crippling. You could say the same for Missouri State and Alize Johnson and we already know what happens when Loyola is without Richardson. We saw a few loses for Evansville without Taylor. SIU is better with Bol. Your statement could be said about any team in the country and one of their top 3 players.



While I agree that losing a top player is detrimental to any team, ISUr is particularly reliant on their stars. The three of them average 52.5 ppg; ninth in the country per your teams twitter, and over 2/3's of the teams total points per game. Yarborough, Fayne, and Evans all average 16 plus, while the next highest point total is Madison Williams at 6.9ppg, Bruninga (really like him btw) adds 6.2 as the only other player to average over 5 a game.

For comparison teams with players who average 5 or more (granted sample sizes vary for some players with injuries)
LU-8
SIU-8
MSU 8
Bradley-8
Valpo-7
UNI-7
Drake-7
ISUb-5
ISUr-5

ISUr's offense seems so heavily reliant on those 3 that I was wondering if they had potential to be especially vulnerable. Obviously for now they can carry the load as they've gotten some nice W's!

Seems to me to UE is mysteriously absent from the above list. They have 7 players averaging 5 or more points a game.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby BCPanther » January 2nd, 2018, 12:15 pm

bleach wrote:
BCPanther wrote:After 2 games (granted, ridiculously early)

Mizzou St (Paul seems to just be letting them play)

If it is your intention to irritate Bears fans, this works. If not, Mo St is preferred. Think if we called UNI Hawkeyes north.


Mea culpa. I'll plead ignorance here...
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby Blers » January 2nd, 2018, 12:22 pm

mule wrote:
Seems to me to UE is mysteriously absent from the above list. They have 7 players averaging 5 or more points a game.[/quote]

Whoops! Good call.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby Adunk33 » January 2nd, 2018, 1:52 pm

Blers wrote:I know Illinois States been hit hard with injuries, but am I wrong in saying their success may largely hinge on the trio of Yarborough, Fayne, and Evans all being healthy? I know they’ve all missed a bit of time to varying degrees but from what I’ve seen losing one over an extended stretch could really derail the team.


ILST is heavily reliant on their big three. However, the team steps up when they are struck with adversity. Someone mentioned earlier in the thread about Bradley's drubbing at Ole Miss. Illinois State went there and won without Fayne, Bruninga, and Yarbrough for the last 3.5 of regulation and all of OT. Illinois State's largest player was a 6'5, 170 lb former walk-on.

Evans didn't play against Indiana State, and they picked up the win, thanks to big games from freshman Bruninga and sophomore Hein.

Losing all three, the Birds don't stand a chance. Lose two, probably still don't stand a chance, lose one, the team can function because someone will step up. However, think back to those good Wichita State teams. Think if you would have taken away Van Vleet, Baker, and (name any other player, really)...those teams would have been incredibly different, so its kind of a silly argument to make. Now, I'm knocking on all the wood I can find because I too, would not want to think about Redbird hoops without those three.

So the standings. Two games in and their are two big surprises for me. The Iowa teams. Drake and UNI have gone different directions to start the season. I mentioned over on Redbirdfan.net that UNI will have a late push, probably get the 5 or 6 seed in STL and win a game. Drake will slip some but have senior guards, which is important to have in this league.

I think that if you can get to 9 wins, you will not be playing Thursday night. I think anyone who does not play Thursday night will have a serious chance to win the whole thing. Valpo is a team I see making their Arch Madness Debut at 8:30 p.m. on Thursday night. I think SIU will be playing Thursday too. For the last two slots, I think it could be anyone except Illinois State, Mo State, UNI, and LuC, leaving Bradley, UE, INST, and Drake to fight away from those two spots. This is one of those years where 1-6 will have a serious shot and seeding really doesn't matter if you are in that range.

My issue with Bradley is not the I-74 rivalry, because it hasn't really been one lately, but it is their schedule. As an ILST fan, I know what an inflated record looks like (see every Tim Jankovich coached ISU team). He won 20 games almost every year he was at ILST, and had nothing to show for it because they were playing a 300+ noncon SOS. That is what BU has done this year. Their "Key" non-con games have been at San Diego State (big loss), and at Ole Miss (big loss). Had they been battle tested, they probably would have won at Drake (who has played Iowa, Minnesota, Wake Forrest, among other more challenging games). The win over UNI was impressive, but we'll know more when Bradley plays ILST, Mo State, and Loyola.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby BradleyFan71 » January 2nd, 2018, 5:02 pm

Adunk33 wrote:
Blers wrote:I know Illinois States been hit hard with injuries, but am I wrong in saying their success may largely hinge on the trio of Yarborough, Fayne, and Evans all being healthy? I know they’ve all missed a bit of time to varying degrees but from what I’ve seen losing one over an extended stretch could really derail the team.


ILST is heavily reliant on their big three. However, the team steps up when they are struck with adversity. Someone mentioned earlier in the thread about Bradley's drubbing at Ole Miss. Illinois State went there and won without Fayne, Bruninga, and Yarbrough for the last 3.5 of regulation and all of OT. Illinois State's largest player was a 6'5, 170 lb former walk-on.

Evans didn't play against Indiana State, and they picked up the win, thanks to big games from freshman Bruninga and sophomore Hein.

Losing all three, the Birds don't stand a chance. Lose two, probably still don't stand a chance, lose one, the team can function because someone will step up. However, think back to those good Wichita State teams. Think if you would have taken away Van Vleet, Baker, and (name any other player, really)...those teams would have been incredibly different, so its kind of a silly argument to make. Now, I'm knocking on all the wood I can find because I too, would not want to think about Redbird hoops without those three.

So the standings. Two games in and their are two big surprises for me. The Iowa teams. Drake and UNI have gone different directions to start the season. I mentioned over on Redbirdfan.net that UNI will have a late push, probably get the 5 or 6 seed in STL and win a game. Drake will slip some but have senior guards, which is important to have in this league.

I think that if you can get to 9 wins, you will not be playing Thursday night. I think anyone who does not play Thursday night will have a serious chance to win the whole thing. Valpo is a team I see making their Arch Madness Debut at 8:30 p.m. on Thursday night. I think SIU will be playing Thursday too. For the last two slots, I think it could be anyone except Illinois State, Mo State, UNI, and LuC, leaving Bradley, UE, INST, and Drake to fight away from those two spots. This is one of those years where 1-6 will have a serious shot and seeding really doesn't matter if you are in that range.

My issue with Bradley is not the I-74 rivalry, because it hasn't really been one lately, but it is their schedule. As an ILST fan, I know what an inflated record looks like (see every Tim Jankovich coached ISU team). He won 20 games almost every year he was at ILST, and had nothing to show for it because they were playing a 300+ noncon SOS. That is what BU has done this year. Their "Key" non-con games have been at San Diego State (big loss), and at Ole Miss (big loss). Had they been battle tested, they probably would have won at Drake (who has played Iowa, Minnesota, Wake Forrest, among other more challenging games). The win over UNI was impressive, but we'll know more when Bradley plays ILST, Mo State, and Loyola.

Given their tough schedule, I'm wondering why UNI did not look at all prepared for a game against what many feel is a Thursday Bradley team. I know it isn't their coach. Could it be a tough schedule really doesn't mean anything when it comes to conference play?
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby bufan741777 » January 2nd, 2018, 5:25 pm

BradleyFan71 wrote:
Adunk33 wrote:
Blers wrote:I know Illinois States been hit hard with injuries, but am I wrong in saying their success may largely hinge on the trio of Yarborough, Fayne, and Evans all being healthy? I know they’ve all missed a bit of time to varying degrees but from what I’ve seen losing one over an extended stretch could really derail the team.


ILST is heavily reliant on their big three. However, the team steps up when they are struck with adversity. Someone mentioned earlier in the thread about Bradley's drubbing at Ole Miss. Illinois State went there and won without Fayne, Bruninga, and Yarbrough for the last 3.5 of regulation and all of OT. Illinois State's largest player was a 6'5, 170 lb former walk-on.

Evans didn't play against Indiana State, and they picked up the win, thanks to big games from freshman Bruninga and sophomore Hein.

Losing all three, the Birds don't stand a chance. Lose two, probably still don't stand a chance, lose one, the team can function because someone will step up. However, think back to those good Wichita State teams. Think if you would have taken away Van Vleet, Baker, and (name any other player, really)...those teams would have been incredibly different, so its kind of a silly argument to make. Now, I'm knocking on all the wood I can find because I too, would not want to think about Redbird hoops without those three.

So the standings. Two games in and their are two big surprises for me. The Iowa teams. Drake and UNI have gone different directions to start the season. I mentioned over on Redbirdfan.net that UNI will have a late push, probably get the 5 or 6 seed in STL and win a game. Drake will slip some but have senior guards, which is important to have in this league.

I think that if you can get to 9 wins, you will not be playing Thursday night. I think anyone who does not play Thursday night will have a serious chance to win the whole thing. Valpo is a team I see making their Arch Madness Debut at 8:30 p.m. on Thursday night. I think SIU will be playing Thursday too. For the last two slots, I think it could be anyone except Illinois State, Mo State, UNI, and LuC, leaving Bradley, UE, INST, and Drake to fight away from those two spots. This is one of those years where 1-6 will have a serious shot and seeding really doesn't matter if you are in that range.

My issue with Bradley is not the I-74 rivalry, because it hasn't really been one lately, but it is their schedule. As an ILST fan, I know what an inflated record looks like (see every Tim Jankovich coached ISU team). He won 20 games almost every year he was at ILST, and had nothing to show for it because they were playing a 300+ noncon SOS. That is what BU has done this year. Their "Key" non-con games have been at San Diego State (big loss), and at Ole Miss (big loss). Had they been battle tested, they probably would have won at Drake (who has played Iowa, Minnesota, Wake Forrest, among other more challenging games). The win over UNI was impressive, but we'll know more when Bradley plays ILST, Mo State, and Loyola.

Given their tough schedule, I'm wondering why UNI did not look at all prepared for a game against what many feel is a Thursday Bradley team. I know it isn't their coach. Could it be a tough schedule really doesn't mean anything when it comes to conference play?


To me both Bradley and UNI both have moments where they look good for one media timeout and then will turn around and look awful for the next two media timeouts. The game in Peoria looked like it was definitely a tale of two halfs. BU took a slight lead early, both teams defense struggled to get a stop and UNI went on a run to the the half to take a 1 point lead. The next half, BU continued to score and Brown went off from 3 while UNI couldn't buy a basket. I feel that in the last 2 games UNI gets cold and they stays cold for a long time. BU stepped up and was making their shots in the second half. I think that this year will be quite the battle from the top of the league to the bottom of the league!
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby Dansen » January 3rd, 2018, 10:42 am

Even though I don't like RPI, it is comforting to note that the MVC now has 5 teams in the top 100, and every team in the top 200

Mo State: 66
Illinois State: 75
Northern Iowa: 81
Loyola: 83
Evansville: 100
Bradley: 125
Southern Illinois: 147
Drake: 157
Valparaiso: 168
Indiana State: 194

This being said if Northern Iowa keeps playing like this I do expect them to drop, but I honestly expect Bradley to rise as well.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby bufan741777 » January 3rd, 2018, 10:47 am

Dansen wrote:Even though I don't like RPI, it is comforting to note that the MVC now has 5 teams in the top 100, and every team in the top 200

Mo State: 66
Illinois State: 75
Northern Iowa: 81
Loyola: 83
Evansville: 100
Bradley: 125
Southern Illinois: 147
Drake: 157
Valparaiso: 168
Indiana State: 194

This being said if Northern Iowa keeps playing like this I do expect them to drop, but I honestly expect Bradley to rise as well.


It is very reassuring. There were a lot of unknowns when WSU left and I think that the conference as a whole has done great recently.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby Adunk33 » January 4th, 2018, 8:54 am

BradleyFan71 wrote:
Adunk33 wrote:
Blers wrote:I know Illinois States been hit hard with injuries, but am I wrong in saying their success may largely hinge on the trio of Yarborough, Fayne, and Evans all being healthy? I know they’ve all missed a bit of time to varying degrees but from what I’ve seen losing one over an extended stretch could really derail the team.


ILST is heavily reliant on their big three. However, the team steps up when they are struck with adversity. Someone mentioned earlier in the thread about Bradley's drubbing at Ole Miss. Illinois State went there and won without Fayne, Bruninga, and Yarbrough for the last 3.5 of regulation and all of OT. Illinois State's largest player was a 6'5, 170 lb former walk-on.

Evans didn't play against Indiana State, and they picked up the win, thanks to big games from freshman Bruninga and sophomore Hein.

Losing all three, the Birds don't stand a chance. Lose two, probably still don't stand a chance, lose one, the team can function because someone will step up. However, think back to those good Wichita State teams. Think if you would have taken away Van Vleet, Baker, and (name any other player, really)...those teams would have been incredibly different, so its kind of a silly argument to make. Now, I'm knocking on all the wood I can find because I too, would not want to think about Redbird hoops without those three.

So the standings. Two games in and their are two big surprises for me. The Iowa teams. Drake and UNI have gone different directions to start the season. I mentioned over on Redbirdfan.net that UNI will have a late push, probably get the 5 or 6 seed in STL and win a game. Drake will slip some but have senior guards, which is important to have in this league.

I think that if you can get to 9 wins, you will not be playing Thursday night. I think anyone who does not play Thursday night will have a serious chance to win the whole thing. Valpo is a team I see making their Arch Madness Debut at 8:30 p.m. on Thursday night. I think SIU will be playing Thursday too. For the last two slots, I think it could be anyone except Illinois State, Mo State, UNI, and LuC, leaving Bradley, UE, INST, and Drake to fight away from those two spots. This is one of those years where 1-6 will have a serious shot and seeding really doesn't matter if you are in that range.

My issue with Bradley is not the I-74 rivalry, because it hasn't really been one lately, but it is their schedule. As an ILST fan, I know what an inflated record looks like (see every Tim Jankovich coached ISU team). He won 20 games almost every year he was at ILST, and had nothing to show for it because they were playing a 300+ noncon SOS. That is what BU has done this year. Their "Key" non-con games have been at San Diego State (big loss), and at Ole Miss (big loss). Had they been battle tested, they probably would have won at Drake (who has played Iowa, Minnesota, Wake Forrest, among other more challenging games). The win over UNI was impressive, but we'll know more when Bradley plays ILST, Mo State, and Loyola.

Given their tough schedule, I'm wondering why UNI did not look at all prepared for a game against what many feel is a Thursday Bradley team. I know it isn't their coach. Could it be a tough schedule really doesn't mean anything when it comes to conference play?


You know, that very well could be. I commented on Ole Miss vs BU vs ISU, but then seeing how ILST played at Drake yesterday leads me to believe I was off. Bradley held Drake to just 7 three pointers at Drake. ILST gave up 15 in the demolishing they took yesterday.

Yesterday, Drake reminded me of the early-mid 2010's Northern Iowa teams. The only thing they are missing is a big man. They move the ball really well, make shots, and are a team led by 5 vets. Look out for the Bulldogs, are they peaking too early? Stay tuned. I have Drake top 6 in the conference, staying off of Thursday.

Of course, every team wants to win the conference, but I'd say the secondary goal is to not play Thursday. Outside the bottom 4, I'm not sure seeding matters much.
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