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After the last couple seasons, to say the over, you have to be out of your mind.

Redbirds4Life wrote:After the last couple seasons, to say the over, you have to be out of your mind.

The the last couple seasons have seen very low RPI numbers for the bulk of the MVC. This year is better. MVC is #8 and closer to edging #7 (AAC) than dropping to #9 (MWC).

Perhaps a more interesting question, as "advanced metrics" are being looked at this year is what becomes of RPI. If the RPI says to put in more schools from MVC than MWC, the RPI will be dismissed as invalid.

But to answer the OP,

UNI has good chance of being in or on the bubble, RPI-wise. And has a few moderate quality wins, but no (yet) high-quality wins. Nobody else at this point has a bubble resume.
So two-bids from MVC depends on:
EITHER beat Xavier tonight OR win at least 14? MVC confirmed games.
AND UNI loses MVC tournament.

guess: 80% chance of one bid.

If the purple cats take down Xavier tonight I'll go with 2; if not, I don't see any at large resumes if UNI loses in St Louis.

usmcsaluki wrote:If the purple cats take down Xavier tonight I'll go with 2; if not, I don't see any at large resumes if UNI loses in St Louis.

Agree. Despite the fact that the metrics say we have been a better league without WSU, it appears the result is going to be the same on Selection Sunday.

I think what happened is this: In the short run, the MVC raised its floor as a surge of confidence swept over the league protecting us against bad losses but lowered its ceiling as the loss of any program of WSU's caliber would. What that means for the MVC's ability to garner at-large`bids remains to be seen. The expansion decision will have a lot to say about that and all members need to keep improving. This year I still think UNI has a shot. Next year UNI and ISUr should have a shot (and hopefully other schools like Valpo Loyola and Bradley will schedule up and join them.)

I'd like to know what the O/U is for the MVC to actually win a game in the NCAA tournament this season is. I'm guessing not too good.

mvfcfan wrote:I'd like to know what the O/U is for the MVC to actually win a game in the NCAA tournament this season is. I'm guessing not too good.

I think if somehow ISU can break our drought we could win a game or two. If our big three is healthy and rolling we could be dangerous. Also northern Iowa despite their bad start has a history of playing up to competition and could win a game. MSU has the talent to win a game or two as well. Loyola took down Florida at Florida so if healthy they have a solid chance. I actually really like our conferences chance at winning a game or two but I'm fairly optimistic usually

Rollbird5 wrote:

mvfcfan wrote:I'd like to know what the O/U is for the MVC to actually win a game in the NCAA tournament this season is. I'm guessing not too good.

I think if somehow ISU can break our drought we could win a game or two. If our big three is healthy and rolling we could be dangerous. Also northern Iowa despite their bad start has a history of playing up to competition and could win a game. MSU has the talent to win a game or two as well. Loyola took down Florida at Florida so if healthy they have a solid chance. I actually really like our conferences chance at winning a game or two but I'm fairly optimistic usually

The tournament winner will most likely be the only MVC team in the NCAA tournament so that makes things much more difficult. With only one team there is a higher chance that the team representing the Valley will get a poor seed. I think the odds are not too great of an MVC upset due to that fact but I'll sure be hoping for it! The NCAA tournament is definitely a time that I will root for most MVC teams. The more wins we get the more people see our names but the selection committee has a horrid history of making things awfully tough for us!

And yet we have a wonderful history of making do with whatever hand the committee deals us and making them look silly. I expect that trend to continue.

Unless UNI finds a way to fix things and goes on a monster tear, no chance of 2 any more.