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Posted: **January 3rd, 2018, 9:05 am**

Jsnhbe1Birds wrote:I differ from most opinions in this thread. Right now I'm going 2. Each team will be officially eliminated from an at-large at 7 games because even if they ran the table and lost in the tournament final that would leave them with 8 losses. If they run the table with 6 losses and lose in the MVC final then they will be 26-7. If the non-con schedule is strong enough they could sneak in. ISU missed out last year at 27-6 but had no good wins except WSU. They also had a bunch of bad losses. This season they do have one bad loss but have wins vs South Carolina and Ole Miss. The conference is also better. If UNI or ISU run the table from here on out and lose the MVC tourney final to get to 26-7 they'll be in the at-large conversation. MSU will also be. Probably a couple of other teams too. These probably wont happen but until they have enough losses I'm saying two.

I agree with you on that teams still can make the tourney if they win all or most of their games minus the championship game. Will it actually happen is the tough question. In some years I would say yes but I don't think that there are not as many lower tier teams this year. With more competition I don't think a team is going to run the table. Selection committee already makes 20 excuses to keep mid majors out. I hope that someone makes a run like this but how awful would it be if one team does great and gets upset in the MVC tournament by 4th place? Then, only 4th place would be probable.

Too much speculation this far out from the tournament. I'm just excited for a competitive Valley season!

Posted: **January 6th, 2018, 9:34 pm**

The Bears could go 18-0 and lose in STL and still wouldn't get in.

Posted: **January 6th, 2018, 10:02 pm**

MSUDuo wrote:The Bears could go 18-0 and lose in STL and still wouldn't get in.

My first thought was"wow what a ridiculous statement" then I thought "He may be right Where's the signature nonconference victory? They'd probably end up with the Illinois State treatment." If only they had a nonconference resume like UNI or Illinois State.

Posted: **January 7th, 2018, 7:25 am**

VUGrad1314 wrote:
MSUDuo wrote:The Bears could go 18-0 and lose in STL and still wouldn't get in.

My first thought was"wow what a ridiculous statement" then I thought "He may be right Where's the signature nonconference victory? They'd probably end up with the Illinois State treatment." If only they had a nonconference resume like UNI or Illinois State.

You're looking at names instead of numbers; right now MSU has two road wins against higher rpi teams than any ISU or UNI victories. Now I doubt those teams [ SDSU/WK] remain that high unless they really run the tables in their conferences, and teams like South Carolina can move up with a good conference record, but as of today those are the facts. That said, I don't give MSU much chance at an at-large unless we pretty much go 17-1 or better, which won't happen.

Posted: **January 7th, 2018, 11:02 am**

BEARZ77 wrote:
VUGrad1314 wrote:
MSUDuo wrote:The Bears could go 18-0 and lose in STL and still wouldn't get in.

My first thought was"wow what a ridiculous statement" then I thought "He may be right Where's the signature nonconference victory? They'd probably end up with the Illinois State treatment." If only they had a nonconference resume like UNI or Illinois State.

You're looking at names instead of numbers; right now MSU has two road wins against higher rpi teams than any ISU or UNI victories. Now I doubt those teams [ SDSU/WK] remain that high unless they really run the tables in their conferences, and teams like South Carolina can move up with a good conference record, but as of today those are the facts. That said, I don't give MSU much chance at an at-large unless we pretty much go 17-1 or better, which won't happen.

I think you could say that about any team in the Valley. I just see who ever wins the tournament as being the MVC's only representation this year no matter what happens. UNI Looked like an at large bid until they forgot how to win basketball games.

Posted: **January 7th, 2018, 2:20 pm**

At-large talk is 100% done this season. In the current college basketball climate an MVC team basically has to be perfect and that ship has sailed.

Missouri State and UNi are the only teams realistically capable of winning games in the NCAA tournament, imo. If Missouri State goes 14-4 or better then I could see them getting an 11 or 12 seed. That doesn’t mean they’ll be close to an at-large, I just think the committee will give them a little bump since they’re in the tournament anyways. Anyone else is probably a 13 or 14. A 14 seed UNI would be terrifying if I were a 3 seed.

Posted: **January 7th, 2018, 3:45 pm**

What a year not to produce at-large teams. We're going to have trouble getting to 36 at-large teams this year. Legitimate trouble.

Posted: **January 7th, 2018, 5:09 pm**

AndShock wrote:At-large talk is 100% done this season. In the current college basketball climate an MVC team basically has to be perfect and that ship has sailed.

Missouri State and UNi are the only teams realistically capable of winning games in the NCAA tournament, imo. If Missouri State goes 14-4 or better then I could see them getting an 11 or 12 seed. That doesn’t mean they’ll be close to an at-large, I just think the committee will give them a little bump since they’re in the tournament anyways. Anyone else is probably a 13 or 14. A 14 seed UNI would be terrifying if I were a 3 seed.

UNI is terrible

Posted: **January 7th, 2018, 5:15 pm**

BirdsEyeView wrote:
AndShock wrote:At-large talk is 100% done this season. In the current college basketball climate an MVC team basically has to be perfect and that ship has sailed.

Missouri State and UNi are the only teams realistically capable of winning games in the NCAA tournament, imo. If Missouri State goes 14-4 or better then I could see them getting an 11 or 12 seed. That doesn’t mean they’ll be close to an at-large, I just think the committee will give them a little bump since they’re in the tournament anyways. Anyone else is probably a 13 or 14. A 14 seed UNI would be terrifying if I were a 3 seed.

UNI is terrible

Agreed. The basketball they were playing is not the basketball they are playing. They need to stop being mentioned as a great team that is struggling. 6 losses in a row and an 8-8 record is nothing to think highly of.

Posted: **January 7th, 2018, 5:26 pm**

BEARZ77 wrote:
VUGrad1314 wrote:
MSUDuo wrote:The Bears could go 18-0 and lose in STL and still wouldn't get in.

My first thought was"wow what a ridiculous statement" then I thought "He may be right Where's the signature nonconference victory? They'd probably end up with the Illinois State treatment." If only they had a nonconference resume like UNI or Illinois State.

You're looking at names instead of numbers; right now MSU has two road wins against higher rpi teams than any ISU or UNI victories. Now I doubt those teams [ SDSU/WK] remain that high unless they really run the tables in their conferences, and teams like South Carolina can move up with a good conference record, but as of today those are the facts. That said, I don't give MSU much chance at an at-large unless we pretty much go 17-1 or better, which won't happen.

names instead of numbers is what the committee looks at. Sad but true.

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