2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

[hot nuts]

there will be no 3-6 for ISU....no way Loyola lays down with so much on the line and drakes not losing to valpo...its matinee vs us and battle royale at 230

Well, I hope you're right that the Birds won't be in the 3/6 game...I hate that late tipoff! Would be fun to get a shot to avenge the loss in Peoria to Drew Carey and his crew.

[VU2014]

there will be no 3-6 for ISU....no way Loyola lays down with so much on the line and drakes not losing to valpo...its matinee vs us and battle royale at 230

Not so sure it's an obvious thing Valpo will lose to drake. Drake is very guard heavy and has a heavy motion offense. Valpo is leading the league in steals and has some of the best perimeter defenders in the league, if not the best in Tevonn Walker. I wouldn't write that game off too quickly. But it is Senior Night there so it will probably be a pretty rowdy crowd so who knows. I think if VU finds it's offensive rhythm they could potentially steal a victory.

[MSUDuo]

yes, preseason joke pick of the year MSU...Lusk is gone and bears will be bad for quite a while in aftermath...as for cpac...can you say PUSH??!!! Lookin like money might stay in the pockets for both of us barring surprises Saturday.

The Bears were bad for exactly one season after the Hinson fiasco. With the right hire, they will be right back to competing.

[cpacmel]

Lusk is gone and bears will be bad for quite a while in aftermath...

Bears will still have Dixon,Church and a few others and they have transfers coming in from Indiana and Xavier. That is, if they all stay after the coaching change....which seems like it's inevitable now.

as for cpac...can you say PUSH??!!! Lookin like money might stay in the pockets for both of us barring surprises Saturday.

Sure is looking like that. Your best team in what 10 years? And it took injuries to Evans and Fayne to potentially push with us!

[chitown fanatic]

Lusk is gone and bears will be bad for quite a while in aftermath...

Bears will still have Dixon,Church and a few others and they have transfers coming in from Indiana and Xavier. That is, if they all stay after the coaching change....which seems like it's inevitable now.

as for cpac...can you say PUSH??!!! Lookin like money might stay in the pockets for both of us barring surprises Saturday.

Sure is looking like that. Your best team in what 10 years? And it took injuries to Evans and Fayne to potentially push with us!

[Hacksaw]

Minor update to the Final 32 scenarios. I knew this was a possibility, and it's still very much up in the air, but currently Evansville's RPI with a win is projected to be very slightly better than MSU's RPI with a loss, and this has been updated in the chart below (scenarios 21,22,29, & 30 are affected). Another to watch for possible movement is Illinois State L vs Bradley W, which currently projects: 91 ISU, 95 BU (scenarios 12, 16, 28, 32).

[Kyle@MOState]

If for some god forsaken reason Missouri State ends up as the 8th seed, then that would be a swift kick to the fellas on an already disappointing season.


Also those thinking that once Paul Lusk is gone, and we are going to be down for a long time, you are right. Everyone is leaving, and we stopped recruiting last year. We are going to fill the roster with Walk-ons...

We will be just fine as long as our new coach can actually coach. We have the best half full arena in the Valley... Go Bears!

[MSUDuo]

Do we really need ISUb to beat Bradley? Wouldn't Evansille hold the RPI tiebreaker over the Bears?

[Hacksaw]

Do we really need ISUb to beat Bradley? Wouldn't Evansille hold the RPI tiebreaker over the Bears?

If ISUb wins, the three way tie between UE, MSU, and UNI will be RPI... currently looking like UE 7, MSU 8, UNI 9.
If Bradley wins, the 4-way tie is split into two groups by round robin. MSU and Indiana St both have 4 wins, Evansville and UNI both have two wins. It's my understanding, the round robin would be run again and since MSU beat ISUb twice, they would be the 6, ISUb the 7. UNI and UE would be split by RPI, most likely UE 8 and UNI 9.

[GOREDBIRDS4]

ISUr is locked in at 3? Don't they have tiebreaker over Drake regardless?