2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

[chitown fanatic]

Here's how I'm hoping it pans out:
1)Loyola- 15-3 . Need them to win out
2)SIU- also would love it if they won out
3)The Drake 10-8- need them to lose 2 of 3(roadies only)
4)ISU 9-9
5)bears 9-9
6)BU 9-9 (this works out as a push for my bet with cpac and the night session I crave)
7-10 I don't care as long as BU is not in this bunch ever again.

Bradley would
Not be the 6 seed under these circumstances. Missouri State would as ISU swept them.

You are correct. I didn't realize ISU swept them. Now the only path to the 6 is to lose out, mo st win out, and Evansville lose once. Looking like a matinee vs the birds that will either make or destroy my weekend, especially since it now looks like I'm paying cpac.

[cpacmel]

Looking like a matinee vs the birds that will either make or destroy my weekend, especially since it now looks like I'm paying cpac.

Can I play the injury card?

[bufan42]

Here's how I'm hoping it pans out:
1)Loyola- 15-3 . Need them to win out
2)SIU- also would love it if they won out
3)The Drake 10-8- need them to lose 2 of 3(roadies only)
4)ISU 9-9
5)bears 9-9
6)BU 9-9 (this works out as a push for my bet with cpac and the night session I crave)
7-10 I don't care as long as BU is not in this bunch ever again.

Bradley would
Not be the 6 seed under these circumstances. Missouri State would as ISU swept them.

You are correct. I didn't realize ISU swept them. Now the only path to the 6 is to lose out, mo st win out, and Evansville lose once. Looking like a matinee vs the birds that will either make or destroy my weekend, especially since it now looks like I'm paying cpac.

My prognostications have drake with 11 wins in 3rd

ISU with 10 in 4th

MO State with 9 wins in 5th.

BU with 9 wins in 6th getting edged out in the rpi tiebreaker.


Crazy to think we all have 2 games to go and so much is still up in the air

[ThisIsTheLineup]

Some stats I pulled up:

Friday games record by seeding (Since 2000)
1 seed - 18-0
2 seed - 18-0
3 seed - 11-7
4 seed - 13-5
5 seed - 5-13
6 seed - 7-11

The three seed has not won on Friday since 2012.

[Hrtnfldhse]

Some stats I pulled up:

Friday games record by seeding (Since 2000)
1 seed - 18-0
2 seed - 18-0
3 seed - 11-7
4 seed - 13-5
5 seed - 5-13
6 seed - 7-11

The three seed has not won on Friday since 2012.

Don't be the 3 seed

[Redbirds4Life]

Some stats I pulled up:

Friday games record by seeding (Since 2000)
1 seed - 18-0
2 seed - 18-0
3 seed - 11-7
4 seed - 13-5
5 seed - 5-13
6 seed - 7-11

The three seed has not won on Friday since 2012.

Don't be the 3 seed

Even though the 3 seed has done worse since 2000 in the MVC tournament, I think in this particular season, I want that 3 seed. I think you would be better off seeing SIU in the semi-finals, rather than Loyola.

Selfishly, I really want Bradley in the quarter-finals.

[Hrtnfldhse]

Some stats I pulled up:

Friday games record by seeding (Since 2000)
1 seed - 18-0
2 seed - 18-0
3 seed - 11-7
4 seed - 13-5
5 seed - 5-13
6 seed - 7-11

The three seed has not won on Friday since 2012.

Don't be the 3 seed

Even though the 3 seed has done worse since 2000 in the MVC tournament, I think in this particular season, I want that 3 seed. I think you would be better off seeing SIU in the semi-finals, rather than Loyola.

Selfishly, I really want Bradley in the quarter-finals.

Yes, I would rather be on the 2/3 side than Loyola's side.

[BuBrave2006]

I would LOVE if it ended up

Loyola
Southern
Drake
ISUr
MSU
Bradley
(7-10)

I wouldn't be thrilled facing Drake but if you put Loyola, ISUr and Missouri St all on the other side, i'll take my chances with whoever you throw in front of us.

[chitown fanatic]

I would LOVE if it ended up

Loyola
Southern
Drake
ISUr
MSU
Bradley
(7-10)

I wouldn't be thrilled facing Drake but if you put Loyola, ISUr and Missouri St all on the other side, i'll take my chances with whoever you throw in front of us.

This. Word for word. sadly, it will be the matinee as although we will beat the trees who have nothing to play for...lusk wont beat uni at their place.

[pauly]

My prognostications have drake with 11 wins in 3rd

ISU with 10 in 4th

MO State with 9 wins in 5th.

BU with 9 wins in 6th getting edged out in the rpi tiebreaker.


Crazy to think we all have 2 games to go and so much is still up in the air

I think in this scenario Bradley still gets the 5th seed, as I think they will still have a higher RPI(probably), right now they are about 10 slots higher than MO State. I think the only way Bradley ends in the 6th spot is with two losses.