2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

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2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Hacksaw » January 25th, 2018, 11:36 am

Halfway through the conference season, it's a bit early to put much stock into these probabilities. However, for entertainment purposes, here they are:

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2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby PurpleAcesFootball » January 25th, 2018, 11:54 am

So the projections show a team could win the regular season crown with 13 wins? I wonder what the lowest number of wins for a regular-season champion is?

That could really hurt NCAA seeding. Wow.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby BCPanther » January 25th, 2018, 12:14 pm

Just like we've all speculated.

Valpo and Evansville are playing Thursday. Loyola has the best shot at winning the league. 2-8 are a jumbled mess where nobody would be surprised by any order.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Hacksaw » January 25th, 2018, 1:01 pm

For some charts overkill, here are each teams Thursday odds based on number of conference wins:

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And here is each team's tournament seed odds per win count (from the last 10,000 simulations):

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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby ahunte1 » January 25th, 2018, 2:01 pm

Hacksaw -- Do you use Sagarin because of its track record or something else? Just wondering if you know how it compares to other systems. Thanks as always for doing these charts.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Hacksaw » January 25th, 2018, 2:38 pm

ahunte1 wrote:Hacksaw -- Do you use Sagarin because of its track record or something else? Just wondering if you know how it compares to other systems. Thanks as always for doing these charts.


I use Sagarin generally because this is how I set it up years ago and at the time I felt like it was generally considered one of the better ranking systems. I have no analysis of its predictive ability versus KenPom or Massey or BPI or any others. Additionally, since last year, the baseline forecasted RPI's that are inputted into the model (for tiebreaker purposes) are from rpiforecast.com and they use Sagarin's predictor rankings as well to derive those figures.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Redbirds4Life » January 25th, 2018, 2:45 pm

This is depressing.....Dirty Dan and the boys need to figure it out quick
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby BirdsEyeView » January 25th, 2018, 3:06 pm

Redbirds4Life wrote:This is depressing.....Dirty Dan and the boys need to figure it out quick


Depressing - yes. Surprising - no.

Hacksaw, love these you do. Appreciate it!
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Redhawk » January 25th, 2018, 3:57 pm

BirdsEyeView wrote:
Redbirds4Life wrote:This is depressing.....Dirty Dan and the boys need to figure it out quick


Depressing - yes. Surprising - no.

Hacksaw, love these you do. Appreciate it!


Regardless of the early injuries and the ineligibility of Copeland I am surprised that
half way through the year the Redbirds are playing this bad.

I thought they would be better on offense but how bad they are on defense
is shocking for a Muller coached team!
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Majik45 » January 25th, 2018, 3:59 pm

It is definitely early, but this becomes the best thread the last 2-3 weeks of the season. Great work Hacksaw.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby BirdsEyeView » January 25th, 2018, 4:12 pm

Redhawk wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:
Redbirds4Life wrote:This is depressing.....Dirty Dan and the boys need to figure it out quick


Depressing - yes. Surprising - no.

Hacksaw, love these you do. Appreciate it!


Regardless of the early injuries and the ineligibility of Copeland I am surprised that
half way through the year the Redbirds are playing this bad.

I thought they would be better on offense but how bad they are on defense
is shocking for a Muller coached team!


I agree, but I am not surprised after the past few games.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby bleach » January 25th, 2018, 6:03 pm

The way I read the chart, the Bears SHOULD finish top 3.
Watch how far that drops as the season winds down. Lusk teams always get worse as the season ends.
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