2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby bleach » February 2nd, 2018, 3:58 am

bleach wrote:The way I read the chart, the Bears SHOULD finish top 3.
Watch how far that drops as the season winds down. Lusk teams always get worse as the season ends.


ONE week later.....5th or 6th.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby BirdsEyeView » February 2nd, 2018, 8:46 am

Old School MVC wrote:Isn't it nice not having to put up with the old arrogant fan base from the past!! :buddies:


And, they have bigger problems to deal with in their own conference and aren't really in a position to come back here to gloat.

This was their year...preseason top 5 team....and yet are 7-3 in the AAC with two games still left with 9-0 Cincinnati and a road game at SMU (lost to them at home already) and @UCF.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby TSmithBJJ » February 2nd, 2018, 3:53 pm

SalukiHoops wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:
Hacksaw wrote:With 7 games to go, here are the simulation results:
Image


Thank you!

Right now, the 4 Illinois schools showcase seeds #1-4!!!


Also if you didnt know, those 4 that lead the MVC are also 1-4 in Illinois in RPI! Some good Valley basketball this year from the boys in the Prairie State.



RPI over U of I and Northwestern. Pretty cool statistic for each school and for the MVC.
BJJ, Muay Thai, and MMA.... (and MVC basketball).
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby BirdsEyeView » February 9th, 2018, 11:05 am

Updates on this Hacksaw?
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Hacksaw » February 9th, 2018, 12:10 pm

This should hopefully be the last of the simulations. I'm hopeful to have the final 1 million scenarios on Monday.

Image
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby BirdsEyeView » February 9th, 2018, 12:59 pm

Hacksaw wrote:This should hopefully be the last of the simulations. I'm hopeful to have the final 1 million scenarios on Monday.

Image


Great, thank you!!
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby MVC1972 » February 9th, 2018, 1:43 pm

Why is it assumed that UE and Valpo will be in the play in games? This league is wide open. UE lost to Loyola on the road by a slim margin. Several of the losses UE had could've went both ways.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Bear4Life » February 9th, 2018, 1:47 pm

MVC1972 wrote:Why is it assumed that UE and Valpo will be in the play in games? This league is wide open. UE lost to Loyola on the road by a slim margin. Several of the losses UE had could've went both ways.


Well Valpo is 3-10...They would have to win out to get to 8-10 and even that probably wouldn't get them out of the PiG, in fact I think the are a 100% lock regardless of outcomes at this point.

Evansville is not a lock to be playing Thursday, but tomorrow's game @ MO State is of major significance. If Evansville loses, they would be in a tough spot to avoid Thursday due to tiebreakers (RPI) issues. If they win, then they have a good shot to avoid.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby MVC1972 » February 9th, 2018, 1:50 pm

True..I see UE splitting series with Loyola and will win at Ford Center. Will be a fun Arch Madness to attend this year. With Wichita State's departure...it's wide open. Any given night...
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby E-Villan » February 9th, 2018, 5:47 pm

Bear4Life wrote:
MVC1972 wrote:Why is it assumed that UE and Valpo will be in the play in games? This league is wide open. UE lost to Loyola on the road by a slim margin. Several of the losses UE had could've went both ways.


Well Valpo is 3-10...They would have to win out to get to 8-10 and even that probably wouldn't get them out of the PiG, in fact I think the are a 100% lock regardless of outcomes at this point.

Evansville is not a lock to be playing Thursday, but tomorrow's game @ MO State is of major significance. If Evansville loses, they would be in a tough spot to avoid Thursday due to tiebreakers (RPI) issues. If they win, then they have a good shot to avoid.


Completely agree. For us to avoid Thursday, we are going to have win road games at both Missouri State and Indiana State. Even with that, we would still need to at minimum split our two home games, Loyola and SIU, and that wouldn't guarantee it. None of those games are easy, and running the table is daunting, especially without Dru.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Hacksaw » February 12th, 2018, 11:50 am

The final 1,048,576 scenarios (unweighted):
Image
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Hacksaw » February 12th, 2018, 11:50 am

Weighted seeding odds:
Image
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